1/ I'm supporting @exit266 documenting the Black Sea Grain Initiative #BSGI#BlackSeaGrainInitiative providing marine wx impacting transit & inspection operations. This🧵is a bit off-topic, analyzing weather impact on @CarnivalCruise Sunshine cruise, 21-27 May 2023.
2/ On the evening of 26 May 2023 through mid-day 27 May 2023, the @CarnivalCruise ship #Sunshine experienced high winds and waves on its final leg of 21-27 May 2023 cruise from Charleston, South Carolina to The Bahamas Islands. Cite: @flyerscaptain@CrewCenter@CruiseHive@CNN
3/ First... some terms and definitions for the landlubbers
5/ #Sunshine currently operates out of Charleston, South Carolina, typically making weekly cruises to The Bahamas as was the case 21-27 May 2023 when #Sunshine encountered significant weather on her return home. cruisemapper.com/ships/Carnival…
6/ @NHC_Atlantic first message indicating deteriorating conditions was issued on 24 May 2023. While National Hurricane Center didn't expect the weather system to be "tropical", low pressure systems with gale and storm force winds can be very dangerous.
7/ @NWSOPC 48 hour forecast, issued 25 May 2023 at 5:25 UTC (mid-point of #Sunshine's cruise), predicted 5 meter (18 feet) significant wave height (very substantial waves!), for 27 May 2023 00:00 UTC. exactly when #Sunshine would be steaming back to Charleston.
8/ @NHC_TAFB tweeted Friday morning (26 May) model guidance showing Storm force winds (>=48 kts) along the US southeast coast, by this time #Sunshine starting her final leg sailing home from Half Moon Cat, The Bahamas (planned ship track provided).
9/ Also on the morning of 26 May 2023, @NWSOPC issued a 24 hour forecast for western Atlantic Ocean, valid 27 May 2023 at 00:00 UTC indicating "Storm" force winds (>=48kts) and sea to 24 feet (7 meters). Despite predicted poor marine conditions, #Sunshine pressed on.
11/ So what happened, weatherwise?
27 May 2023 06:00 UTC @NWSOPC wind and wave analysis shows a 1005 mb "Storm" (>=48kts) with significant wave heights peaking at 24 ft (7.3 meters). ncei.noaa.gov/data/ncep-char…
12/ So what happened, weatherwise? @databuoycenter BUOY #41004 (41 NW southeast of Charleston, SC) observed winds from north-northeast 39 kts gusting to 51 kts with significant wave height to 18 ft (5.5 meters) concurrent with #Sunshine's transit. cormp.org/graph.php?para…
13/ So what happened, weatherwise? @esa#METOP#ASCAT winds, 27 May 2023 at 1:51 UTC pass, indicated a broad area of >=40 kts winds.
14/ So what happened, weatherwise? @NOAASatellites#GOESEast satellite shows an intense low with thunderstorms just south of Charleston (#Sunshine's destination). IMPORTANT: WORST conditions are not at low's center, but north and northeast of the low. col.st/nV8Ka
15/ So what did the #Sunshine's captain do in the face of significant predicted and observed marine conditions? #Sunshine actual track diverted from plan with the ship twice turning windward (into the wind) and decreasing forward speed. cruisemapper.com/?imo=9070058
16/ What did #Sunshine's captain tell the passengers?
According to @CruiseHive, not that much. Perhaps the captain was busy trying to keep his ship safe under challenging conditions which caused limited communications with passengers? IDK cruisehive.com/carnival-ship-…
17/ Hindsight Assessment: #Sunshine's captain was reacting to conditions as his ship entered the most intense wind region northeast of the low pressure system. #Sunshine's maneuvers exposed passengers to several additional hours of high wind and seas.
18/ Hindsight Assessment: #Sunshine's maneuvers, twice turning into the wind, MIGHT be explained by the captain trying to minimize exposure #Sunshine's starboard (right) side to extreme roll caused by 50 kts wind gusts and +7 meter waves.
19/ Impact reports from social media:
"Sharon Tutrone, who is a professor at Coastal Carolina University, said she went about 12 hours without an update from the captain or crew with no wi-fi or cellphone service to know what was going on." wpde.com/news/local/car…
25/ A thank you to the dedicated professionals at @NWSOPC@NHC_TAFB@NHC_Atlantic@ChrisLandsea who work 24x7 to safeguard our marine transportation system by providing forecasts and expert advice to mariners! Please follow for authoritative and timely marine warnings. /end
1/ Update on river ice conditions on the lower Dnipro near UAF left bank beachhead. Average temperatures in the south have fallen below 0C since 8 JAN, much below 0C after 11 JAN lowering water temps to near 0C and starting river ice growth.
2/ Most recent visible imagery: Sentinel-2 (9 JAN) shows dark water indicating unfrozen water w/ no snow cover. LANDSAT8 (11 JAN) shows ice formation in the larger lakes between the Antonovsky Bridges. Ice is definitely forming on the Konka River but not yet on the Dnipro River.
3/ Sentinel-1 SAR timeseries:
11 JAN: Rough surface ( speckled gray) on Dnipro indicates wind waves on open water
15 JAN: Dark surface with white ridges on Dnipro RIver shows new ice (nilas, 5-10 cm thick); Konka river definitely frozen.
On 8 NOV 2023, a RF missile struck a Liberian registered commercial ship in Odesa region port. This #NAFOWeather🧵examines why the ship was in Ukrainian port, initial findings on RF weapon used, subsequent data available to confirm initial findings & impact to #UkriCor transits.
2/ Prior to the 24 FEB 2022 full-scale RF invasion, Ukraine exported enough grain to feed 400 million people, most in the famine probe Global South. topleadprojects.com/environmental-…
3/ Since 24 FEB 2022, RF has systematically attacked Ukraine's ag infrastructure, blockaged ports & seized grain in occupied areas w/ the goal of weaponizing grain to pay for its war effort, hurt Ukraine's economy & deny food to Ukraine's export partners.
1/ There has been daily reports of clashes near the Antonovsky Rail Bridge crossing of the Dnipro river between Prydniprovs'ke and Poima since 18 October 2023. A #NAFOWeather🧵on the Dnipro wetland ground conditions supporting offensive operations.
2/ First, key dates in this region: Important to note that RF used this location to ferry troops and vehicles in the fall 2022 and UAF has been been attacking RF obn the left bank near the Antonovsky Bridge 6 km downstream of this location in late June 2023.
3/ The Dnipro river delta wetlands is about 3.9 km wide at the Antonovsky Rail Bridge crossing. The crossing includes two bridges, 0.5 km bridge (destroyed) over the Dnipro main channel and a 40 meter bridge (destroyed) over the Verkhnya Konka River.
1/ Fall 2023 #MudSeason “bezdorizhzhia (ukr.)/rasputiza" prediction. 15 OCT 2023 Update (version 1!), a #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ BLUF: Fall 2023 #MudSeason onset will likely be delayed a month due to lower rainfall over east & south Ukraine from AUG thru early OCT 2023. The result of rainfall deficit, along with clear skies & lower humidity increased evaporation caused lower soil moisture than normal.
3/ Background: This prediction uses NATO Reference Mobility Model (NRMM) derived correlation between soil moisture and soil strength. While NRMM uses multiple land surface features to develop maximum speed predictions, the most time-variant feature is soil moisture.
1/ On 17 JUL, Ukrainian #USVs damaged the Kerch vehicle bridge near Tuzla Island. On 3 AUG, Tanker SIG was severely damaged by a #USV while at anchor south of the Kerch bridge. In addition to sinking barges (see below), what has RF done to protect Kerch shipping? A #NAFOWeather🧵
2/ Pictures are today's ship position (mostly at anchor south of the Kerch bridge), the right picture includes the ship track heat map from 2022. Ships that anchored west of Port Taman in 2022 are now gone.
What happened?
3/ Sentinel 2 True Color loop shows northern most anchorage clearing out between 21 AUG and 10 SEP.
1/ It has been 3 months since the Russians blew-up the Kakhovka HPP dam on 6 June 2023. What is happening to the Dnipro River hydrology and ecology? What are are the options for rebuilding the HPP and possibility for a Dnipro left-bank beachhead? A #NAFOWeather 🧵
Outline:
2/ K-HPP Destruction Impacts:
- Irrigation/agricultural land lost: 350,000-550,000 ha
- Drinking (population 700,000) and industrial water loss
- Zaporizhzhia NPP cooling pond water supply loss
- 14,000 homes flooded, many drowned
3/ 6-11 June Water Level Changes: Nikopol (left y-axis) and Kherson City (right y-axis) from Vyshnevskyi, et al, 2023
Immediately after the Russians blew up the K-HPP dam, the Kakhovka Reservoir water level began lowering and within 6 hours, the Kherson City water level increased