Thread by @kevinbonham

It's not clear to me whether the 4 seats referred to are meant to be the 4 Labor won on primaries or the 4 that finished Labor vs Green with Labor winning but either way it's an exceptionally deceptive claim and should be deleted. #springst

https://twitter.com/WokeBrownie/status/1664570178527723521

One could say that all Labor winners where the Greens were excluded received Greens preferences in the 2PP count but that ignores many where Labor had crossed the line if not on primaries but at least before the Greens were excluded.

There are also others where it was not mathematically possible for Greens prefs to decide the result.

The VEC does not publish the same level of data as the AEC but I believe that the only seats where Labor won but would have lost with an even split of Greens voter preferences were:

Bass
Pakenham
Hastings

Also, it's more likely that the decision - to the extent that electoral motives play a part - has less to do with Green prefs (the flow of which never changes all that much no matter what Labor does) and more to do with direct competition with the Greens for votes and seats.