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Kevin Bonham Profile picture
@kevinbonham
Jun 4 • 4 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Newspoll 55-45 to ALP
#Newspoll ALP 38 L-NP 34 Greens 12 ON 6 others 10, virtually unchanged from previous,
#Newspoll Albanese satisfied 55% (-2)
Dutton 36% (-)
Don't have dissatisfied yet.

Better PM (skews to incumbents but not this much) Albanese leads 55-28.
Voting intention primaries in Newspoll are stronger than would usually be the case for 55-45. This can be explained by rounding, minor party breakdown effects, state level effects etc. but this is probably on the strong side of 55 for Labor continuing their excellent polling.

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More from @kevinbonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Jun 4
#Newspoll Voice to Parliament

Yes 46
No 43
Undecided 11

That is the worst result for Yes on a two-answer basis (c. 51.6) so far.
Note that question method has changed since previous Voice Newspoll, with actual referendum question now used.
'But it's only Morgan and Resolve dragging the trend down and the good polls still have Yes way ahead.'

Not anymore. Image
Read 6 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Jun 3
Utting Research ALP leads 61-39 with a primary of 52% but there are headlines hyping this as suggesting hope for the WA Liberals. Hope that in an election held now they might win as many seats as the Nationals?
Cook net +16 (42-26)
Mettam net -2 (31-33)
Cook leads as better Premier (skews to incumbents but less so when a leader is new) 50-24

Haven't seen full article but Utting are usually robopolls and sample size is modest (800).
Would be interested to see results from other pollsters perhaps a few months down the track when the McGowan goodwill factor fades but 39-61 is not in any way encouraging for the opposition parties even if it is +9 on 2021.
Read 4 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Jun 2
It's not clear to me whether the 4 seats referred to are meant to be the 4 Labor won on primaries or the 4 that finished Labor vs Green with Labor winning but either way it's an exceptionally deceptive claim and should be deleted. #springst
One could say that all Labor winners where the Greens were excluded received Greens preferences in the 2PP count but that ignores many where Labor had crossed the line if not on primaries but at least before the Greens were excluded.
There are also others where it was not mathematically possible for Greens prefs to decide the result.
Read 5 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Jun 2
It saddens me to inform the house that on May 26 something claiming to be a newspaper published something claiming to be analysis by somebody claiming (probably correctly) to be John Black.
So we are supposed to believe that in for instance Kingston (ALP 49.2 Lib 25.85) the outcome was determined by the primary votes for minors and indies and the way "they allocated" [sic] their preferences. Image
In Kingston Labor needed less than 3% of preferences to win. There is no minor party or IND whose voters' preferences flow 97% to L-NP even if the minor party or IND tells its voters to vote that way.
Read 8 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Apr 19
Legislative Council button press is proceeding in NSW (it takes about an hour). So far only the first four elected. The only suspense early on is at what point the second Green crosses.
Second Green over during distribution of minor candidates. Near the end now.
Socialists, IMOP, PEP, Bosi excluded
Read 6 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Apr 18
#ResolvePM federal ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 ON 6 UAP 1 IND 9 (likely overstated) other 2. My 2PP estimate 61.5 to ALP (+2.1) Resolve's regular polls skew to Labor cf other polling (this is not true of their polls late in campaigns which use different methods.)
61.5 is the highest 2PP conversion I have for any poll in this term just beating 61.3 also from Resolve in Aug 2022. Nobody else has been above 57.4 on my conversions or 58,5 as a pubished 2PP. (Resolve does not normally release 2PPs and didn't for this poll.)
#ResolvePM Dutton net performance "in recent weeks" -28 down from -11 a month ago. Treat with caution because of the very low L-NP primary in this poll.
Read 10 tweets

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