I was in Dnipro today. A missile hit this building earlier this year. 46 people burned and evaporated.
Dnipro is close to the border and missiles can come any time without warning.
Yesterday, there was an attack and more people died.
But the city lives. 1/
Just next to the destroyed building there is a new development full of live. 2/
There is beautiful architecture and art 3/
People open and operate upscale stores, designed by Ukrainians, and giving a shockingly different vibe. 4/
The authorities put up shelters around the city so that people can get to some kind of safer if there is no warning attack. 5/
The city is clean, garbage collection is working. 6/
They appear to be playful and in good mood. But the moment you talk to them you see trauma, fear, exhausting, commitment, resilience and anger. All at once. 7/
The drinks are innovative. This is a lemonade with raspberries. 8/
Our waiter was giving attitude :))9/
I have not slept well for weeks now, but even my mood got lighten up. 10/
And the colors of the city are beautiful. 11/
Dnipro city is wonderful, and it is horrible crime what Russians are doing to it. There are good people in Dnipro, goof humans, who want to live free. Without Russia. And it will happen. 12X
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The Nova Kakhovka dam on Dnipro in Kyiv is no more.
This is now confirmed on Ukrainian news. Ukraine states that the dam was blown up by Russians. Russians deny the dam is blown.
If true, people will die and it is a war crime 1/
Multiple villages around Kherson and parts of Kherson will be flooded. The news report that the Ukrainian government has started evacuation.
The water supply to Crimean canal will be cut because the water levels will be low. This will have substantive consequences for Crimea.2/
Some analysts argue that destroyed dam effectively puts a stop to chances for amphibious counteroffensive in the south. It might be true but let’s see.
Strategically, it shows that Russia is concerned about keeping access to Crimean and that Crimea is vulnerable. 3/
David Sacks's misinterpreted John Mearsheimer who's misinterpreted the history and Ukraine. And the Twitter went wild.
So, let's take their arguments apart.
1. The Russians are winning the war. Ukraine had the upper hand in 2022 but Russia has it in 2023. 1/
Actually, the 2023-2022 comparison is wrong. Even after the battles for Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson were lost, Russia had more territorial gains in 2023 than in 2022.
In 2023, the Russia mobilization wave produced no result. The number of casualties doubled. 2/
And there is chaos and infighting within the Russian military leadership. All of this was exchanged for gaining a small non-strategic city of Bakhmut, but even that is contested.
Now recall Belgorod, Crimea attacks, Black Sea fleet problems, UAVs over Moscow, 3/
David Sacks has misinterpreted John Mearsheimer who misinterpreted what happens next in Ukraine and twitter went wild.
So, let's take it apart, point by point.
1. The Russians are winning the war. Ukraine had the upper hand in 2022 but Russia has it in 2023. 1/
Actually, the 2023-2022 comparison is wrong. Even after the battles for Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson were lost, Russia had more territorial gains in 2023 than in 2022.
In 2023, the Russia mobilization wave produced no result. The number of casualties doubled. 2/
And there is chaos and infighting within the Russian military leadership. All of this was exchanged for gaining a small non-strategic city of Bakhmut, but even that is contested.
Now recall Belgorod, Crimea attacks, Black Sea fleet problems, UAVs over Moscow, 3/
The economist @TheEconomist says that Russia has spent $67B or 3.7% of its GDP on war in Ukraine.
In my view, this estimate is low and the actual amount is several times more.
Here is why.
Let’s assume that the direct spending on military are similar in Ukraine and Russia.1
It is commonly argued that the attacking party has to spend several times more resources than the defending party, both in terms of people and ammunition.
Ukraine here is a defending party.
While the evidence is difficult to come across because it is classified, there is some
For example, Russia is thought to spend at the peak of combat between 20K-50K shells a day, while Ukrainian numbers are at around 5K+. 3/