Julien Jomaux Profile picture
Jun 5, 2023 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Will large-scale #batteries store the energy when it is cheap and sell it back when expensive? My short answer is no.
A short thread. (1/10) Image
Volatility is on the rise with renewables, especially solar. Just check what happened last week in Europe. Very low and negative prices all other Europe for lunch. (2/10) Image
Solar was clearly one of the main factors. The residual load in Germany getting close to zero (negative in the Netherlands). (3/10) Image
So, we are at the age of the canyon curve... (4/10) Image
Should we install large-scale batteries to store excess energy and gives it back during the evening?
No, it is far from making economic sense today (happy to discuss assumptions). Basically, one spread per day is not enough to justify investing in large-scale batteries. (5/10) Image
I am not the only one to say that, I believe. @iain_staffell (6/10) Image
Or check the calculated revenues in this great study (sciencedirect.com/science/articl…). Far from justifying investing in large-scale batteries. (7/10) Image
Should we do any large-scale batteries? Yes, we should! But not for energy arbitrage...but for power reserves, very-short term portfolio management (balancing, intraday), renewables integration, grid congestion, ... Just not to store a lot of energy and give it back later. (8/10)
But probably the true potential is with Electric Vehicles. The stored energy would be much larger...of course, these batteries are not primarily made for that, so the potential is much lower. Still, great potential...if we have incitative tariffs. (9/10) @RWTH Image
If you like this thread, you can follow my work here: (10/10) Image

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More from @JomauxJulien

Jul 19
There are more and more negative prices in the electricity markets.

Paying others to consume something is like considering it as "trash". Does not seem logical.

So, here is a thread with the reasons for negative prices. 🧵

1/11 Image
First, let's be clear, negative prices are increasingly present when solar is generating (at least in Germany, see below)

Here is a distribution of the number of negative price per hour. Already more negative prices in 2024 than previous years.

2/11 Image
Reason 1: impossible to reduce/switch off generation.

1a: hydro with reservoirs when reservoirs are full.
1b: run-or fiver hydro not made for not generating.
1c: etc.

And the big one: solar installed in "install-and-forget", which happens quite a lot.

3/11
Read 11 tweets
Jul 16
What's the marginal cost of wind and solar ? We tend to say that it is zero, but is that correct?

At what price should they bid?

A thread 🧵to introduce the reflection (to be explored more)

(Idea from a colleague)

1/8
First, let's skip all the cases where wind and solar are bidding at negative prices because of the support schemes (whatever it is). Let's consider a wind and solar plant that is fully bidding on day-ahead markets

What should they bid ?

2/
As you may know, day-ahead markets are pay-as-clear. If your cost is zero to produce 1 MWh, there is no reason not to bid at 0. Any cleared price higher would be given to you.

Anything below and you are not selected.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Jul 2
The missing piece of the energy transition is long term storage

We have everything else, from very cheap sources, batteries to dampen short variations, to improved tech to transmit and manage the grid.

But, long term storage is the missing piece.

1/
By long term, I rërë to a storage that would do a few cycles only per year max.

If you take Europe, you have virtually no solar in months (10x more in July than December in Germany).

And wind is great, but would it be enough? I doubt it. Hello dunkelflaute.

2/
So what can you do?

1. Lucky countries will use hydro (Nordics ... Not surprising that they use much more elec + are already green).

2. Boost biomass, biogas: you can do it so far...

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 25
Fun day today in EU power markets.

Due to a Partial decoupling, a local Auction has been done for the countries below.

A little tour of the local results 🧵 Image
Germany: hello prices at +2000 €/MWh. Peak prices being really really high ...

Peaker plants to be remunerated nicely. Image
-150 €/MWh in Belgium. Probably sunny tomorrow then.

Amazing prices for a Wednesday ... Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 19
Have you noticed recently how peak hours have been in Europe ? Simple, very high. But why? How?

A quick thread 🧵

1. Prices for tomorrow at 8 PM.

Peak in Poland at 290 €/MWh. Germany and Southern Nordics at 200 €/MWh.

1/8 Image
Hungary as well at 275 €/MWh.

Pretty flat and then, boum a peak.

2/8 Image
Wait, are gas power plants not the marginal price setting plants?

NG price: 35 €/MWh. Co2: 68 €/T ==> Assuming a bad efficiency of 33%, Elec marginal cost should be something like: 35 / 0.33 + 0.5 * 68 = 140 €/MWh.

Only half of Hungary and Poland. Why?

3/8
Read 8 tweets
Jun 10
Germany under the sun. Summary of my new post in a thread.

Everything you need to know about the recent data on solar in Germany.

Capacity, concentration, negative prices and capture rate. A rapid look.

Check my site for the long post - link in bio.

Let's explore

1/13 Image
First. Solar is in its second wave in Germany.

More than 1 GW per month installed since 2023 (summer load is 50 GW in Germany).

The current installation rate is about 10x the one of 2014/2018.

Target for 2030: 215 GW. Possible if we keep the same installation rate.

2/13 Image
One particularity when you are around 50 degrees North is the concentration of solar.

In 2023, the best month was 10x the worst month.

It is not only day/night variation, it is also winter/summer.

There are days were solar peak at only 1 GW !

3/13 Image
Read 13 tweets

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