Thread by @antbruceking

1/The destruction of the #KakhovkaDam has rightly been deplored on humanitarian grounds. But what is its military significance, especially for understanding the Russian military and therefore the Ukrainian #counteroffensive?
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2/#KakhovkaDam is an appalling act of terrorism. However, from a military perspective, it shows that the much derided Russian commanders are astute (and totally ruthless).

3/ The flooding the Dniepro river basin blocks off one possible axes of attack for the UAF for at least the next couple of crucial weeks. Viewed coldly, it is an effective military action.

4/At the same time, the Russians have intensified their strategic air campaign against Ukrainian cities. Together with the dam attack, the Russians seem to be escalating strategically in an attempt to blunt the #counteroffensive before it starts fully.

5/ The Russians have showed themselves very poor at operational level integration. They have fought a series of disjointed tactical battles, often determined and directed by political interests in Moscow.

6/ The Russians may, therefore, struggle to respond to the Ukrainian #counteroffensive with an integrated operational response, fusing joint forces in close and deep battles especially against Ukrainian rear echelons. (This is good news).

7/Consequently, it seems likely they will fight a series of local defensive tactical engagements (from the defensive lines they have created in the Donbas and Zaporizhzia, but probably in practice from urban areas, as they have too few forces to hold long lines).

8/If my interpretation is correct, these tactical battles are likely, to be supported by intensified strategic interdiction. More air bombardment; other attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure; maybe cyber attacks on European infrastructure?

9/There is no sign at all at this point of a non-conventional strategic escalation i.e. to nuclear. It remains very unlikely. That might possibly change, though, if the Crimea were seriously threatened. That might trigger a Russian decision point.

10/ The #counteroffensive is going to be hard and disturbing at points. The Ukrainians surely know this; they have shown incredible resilience. Western allies and audiences in Europe and America are likely to need some resilience and patience too.

🧵/End