1/ Strategy for Ukraine:

The west’ strategy for #UkraineRussiaWar 2024 has become an urgent question. Many commentators @shashj @KofmanMichael @RALee85 @HoansSolo @Jack_Watling have already stressed that we are approaching a crux maybe even a climax in this War. 2/Ukraine’s counter-offensive of 2023 failed. Frankly, it was never likely to succeed, as much as its proponents claimed. UAF were trying to breach heavily fortified, prepared Russian positions, without air superiority, or favorable combat ratios.

1/Following, the infamous Hamas attack of 7 October, the IDF are poised for a major ground offensive into Gaza. The Battle of Gaza approaches. @johnspencer, David Kilcullen, @Shashj have already posted some analysis. Perhaps, it would be useful to add my thoughts 🧵 2/In my book on Urban Warfare, I argued described the 21c urban battlescape. Because forces were much small than 20c, they can no longer hold dense fronts in the field. They converge on urban areas where the decisive strategic, operational, and tactical objectives are located.

1/16 This is a fascinating, provocative, perceptive article. I would encourage everyone interested in command @LawDavF @almurray @WarintheFuture to read it. Thanks @Beags_Beagle for your and your team's work on this. I offer a few initial thoughts.

armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Milit… 2/@Beags_Beagle and his co-authors are surely correct to argue that the bloated divisional and brigade HQs of the 9/11 Wars are obsolete. They are far too vulnerable. At a UK divisional exercise in 2016, the commander observed that his static, tented CP was 'not an act of war'

1/UK Military doctrine emphasises the cognitive dimension of warfare. Avoiding attrition, the enemy's mind is the target. The contrast with current discussions of the #counteroffensive is marked. Like the FWW, it is all about re-taking terrain and settlements liberated. 2/ Are the #Ukrainians hopelessly old fashioned? No: nothing has a greater morale and intellectual effect than losing troops and ground - especially when it is vital terrain.

1/The destruction of the #KakhovkaDam has rightly been deplored on humanitarian grounds. But what is its military significance, especially for understanding the Russian military and therefore the Ukrainian #counteroffensive?
🧵 2/#KakhovkaDam is an appalling act of terrorism. However, from a military perspective, it shows that the much derided Russian commanders are astute (and totally ruthless).

1/ @JohnSpencer and @LiamSCollins keenly expected book came out last month. Given my own interests in urban warfare, I was very much looking forward to it. In the light of the Ukraine War, it is highly pertinent. Having just read it, I thought I would do a short review. 2/ It may be worth readers knowing that the book is not a monograph, but a selection of the transcripts from the excellent series of @MWI podcasts which John has conducted over the last few years. It is therefore rich and wide-ranging.

1/Good point @LawDavF. Let's have a go at this – and try to envisage the situation by the end of November. And I would emphasise this is no more than an educated guess based on open sources like the excellent @ISW. But maybe it could start a conversation?

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1576980817359917062

2/After the attrition of the last 8 months, and the UKR counter-offensive, it looks like RU has ca 80,000 troops in theatre (from July when they had 120k). UA has increased to probably 120k combat ready forces 20 Brigades trained by NATO etc? With 10 very combat capable.

1/ Like everyone else, I have been troubled by the @BBCPanorama programme. It’s not an easy topic to write about but I felt impelled to articulate some thoughts. They are by no means original; I suspect that many others are thinking on similar lines.

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-620831… 2/ The programme raised many legal and ethical questions @PhilipIngMBE @simonakam @ThreshedThought. I want to talk about the operational use of SOF. To this end, let us consider a thought experiment.

1/@isw brilliant guide to Russian generals prompts me to say a few words about command in the Ukraine War more broadly. Not least because I wrongly inferred from Gerasimov’s pronouncements that the Russian command was becoming more professional in my 2019 book on command!

https://twitter.com/Mason_R_Clark/status/1524367963880665091

2/ Contemporary operations set a distinctive problem for military commanders. Commanders are not dealing with problems of scale, typical in the 20th century, but scope. They must coordinate regular and irregular forces across the domains land, air, maritime, cyber and space.

1/ As the Battle of #Kyiv approaches, it may be worth remembering seven principles of #urbanwarfare in the 21st century that we've discussed together. @SpencerGuard @shashj @Stu_Lyle @JaysonGeroux @ChasAHKnight @RitaKonaev 1. As military forces contract, they will converge on and in cities. The decisive battles are likely to take place in urban areas.