Quick reading of #Kuwait’s elections: A 🧵

1. More combative than 2022 parliament. Requires a similarly combative gov. Those have been hard to come by, esp w/ the failed quota system. PM’s (now extended) honeymoon w/ MP majority won’t amount to much absent efficient gov machine.
2. Don’t expect rigid positions from MPs (right away at least). Many are worn out at this stage. Making it work should be on everyone’s mind (one hopes!). That entails playing politics: hard compromises, mutual respect, & patience instead of the hit and run attitude of the past.
3. Expect more of the musical chairs game in the already dynamic loyalty-opposition spectrum & interplay over the yrs. Ruling family politics will come into play
4. That’s why sorting the succession upfront like rest of the GCC will come a long way in achieving desired stability
5. Largely unchanged scene w/ 10 new MPs (& 2 returning) out of 50. Sharp rise & drop in positions of some in just a few months is quite telling & reflects rising awareness among voters.

Identity politics still rules, but these are encouraging signs on a diff course out there
6. Sad day for proponents of diversity. Women, Shiites, & “liberals” down while tribals, Islamists, “conservatives”dominate. Unsurprising trend long in the making. Speaks to need for dialogue to uncover Kuwait’s evolving identity & ways to incorporate diff views & protect rights.
7. For detailed election results and breakdown, see aljarida.com/article/27052 and discussion by @ALYOUSEF94
9. What’s next? Gov resigned today & the new parliament (+new gov) will convene on June 20 for opening ceremony. Expect gov by 6/19 latest.

No amount of goodwill alone will fix a broken system. Radical reforms, urgent laws, an integrated & energetic gov, & a new pact are a must.

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More from @bmalsaif

Jun 7
Is Saudi Arabia recalibrating? De-risking? Same old?
A thread:
As of late, Saudi Arabia is often touted as a sleeping giant that punched below its weight and has finally emerged. That sounds right if one looks at Saudi in isolation from its modern history. But...
But it would be inaccurate because Saudi history matters to understand where it is now and where it hopes to go. The country has gone through several waves of hyper development, social transformations, and power projection. 2
Current wave fits into a long series even if it's outpacing itself! Past waves included rapid urbanization & intro of tech w/ export of oil post-WWII; abolishment of slavery & intro of women's schools in 50s-60s ; nationalizing Aramco in 80; & social liberalization since '00s 3
Read 11 tweets
Mar 10
Both sides of the Gulf (& larger MENA) deserve a normal, peaceful, & (dare I say) prosperous region. Many are breathing a sigh of relief w/ today’s official Iran-Saudi agreement. All 3 parties to the deal can claim victory, but Saudis are arguably the biggest winner. Why? A 🧵
1. A rapprochement was imminent given the last 2 yrs of talks in Iraq & Oman. So that’s not the surprise - China is! It scores a point against the US in their great power competition, stepping beyond its usual economic & arguably transactional, or at most, short-term arrangements
1 cont.) Iran & now KSA are willing to give China that role. But let’s not beat the bushes on what it means for US standing in KSA & the GCC. No Chinese mediation - or any diplomatic involvement - will threaten US primacy in the region. All states, Iran included, know that.
Read 11 tweets
Oct 30, 2022
Current Saudi-US spat is actually good news for both countries. Why so & where is the relationship heading? A thread.

Disagreement has an upside: it forces one to relearn/update info about the other side. No one remains static & this can’t be truer about Saudi right now.

1/12
Disagreements flare up every decade or so between both states. When the events of the past few weeks are measured against past spats, history shows they’re neither new nor phenomenal no matter the hype we hear about the “dramatic” turn of events.

2/12
Past disagreements abound:

Palestine, '73 oil embargo, 9/11, 2nd Gulf War, Arab Spring, oil policy, JCPOA, Kashoggi, & the everlasting difference of opinion over human rights. The list continues.

This is not the first disagreement and will not be the last.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
Oct 17, 2022
There is a new gov in #Kuwait. What does the composition tell us? A 🧵

1. Technically, this is a cabinet reshuffle w/ gov formation on Oct 5 & next day resignation of ministers (Oct 6) after the fallout w/ the minister MP whose inclusion is necessary for gov validity (Art. 56).
2. Quota system persists, but it has drastically weakened even when compared to Oct 5 formation. One Shiite (as usual), but less keenness on having most tribes represented leading to a notable reduction in tribal background ministers.
3.Only 2 ministers remain from former PM al-Khalid’s cabinets (finance+comms). They’ll be under the spotlight. Not counting the PM (former interior) & interior minister (former defense) who joined Khalid’s gov a month before its resignation or Sheetan who served in a previous gov
Read 13 tweets
Apr 28, 2021
Thread: MBS appeared on TV in a 90-min interview to commemorate 5-yr anniversary of Vision 2030. Not much controversy was expected given the Saudi state’s sponsorship of the event. Timing, presenter, & setup point toward nationalist agenda & local audience, but messages go beyond
Interview served 2 main purposes: reaffirm CP’s continuous command of KSA & its local transformation; accentuate recent FP shifts through a revamped persona & realist positions. Extent to which both messages win over though depends less on talk and more on actions on the ground.
Domestic agenda occupied the lion’s share. Key theme was the regime’s success in building a center of gov that can run the country. Previous monarchs may beg to differ, but CP gave concrete examples of what that means: strategy, policies, & budget no longer reside in ministries.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 9, 2020
THREAD: As expected, it is decrees season in #Oman. Sultan #Haitham just announced 10 more decrees today. Most important of them is the promotion of #Shihab bin Tariq to deputy prime minister for #defense affairs. What are the implications of this decision?
2. Shihab bin Tariq (b. 1955) is the sultan's full, younger brother (by a year). Shihab and Haitham were part of the candidates list for sultan alongside their half brother, #Asaad. Shihab was #Qaboos's advisor (2004-20) and head of the research council among other duties.
3. Between 1990-04, Shihab was Commander of the Royal Navy of Oman. Shihab joins the government alongside his brothers, the sultan and Asaad. Both Asaad and Shihab are equally ranked at deputy prime minister. Yet are they really equal?
Read 5 tweets

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