Is Saudi Arabia recalibrating? De-risking? Same old?
A thread:
As of late, Saudi Arabia is often touted as a sleeping giant that punched below its weight and has finally emerged. That sounds right if one looks at Saudi in isolation from its modern history. But... But it would be inaccurate because Saudi history matters to understand where it is now and where it hopes to go. The country has gone through several waves of hyper development, social transformations, and power projection. 2

Quick reading of #Kuwait’s elections: A 🧵

1. More combative than 2022 parliament. Requires a similarly combative gov. Those have been hard to come by, esp w/ the failed quota system. PM’s (now extended) honeymoon w/ MP majority won’t amount to much absent efficient gov machine. 2. Don’t expect rigid positions from MPs (right away at least). Many are worn out at this stage. Making it work should be on everyone’s mind (one hopes!). That entails playing politics: hard compromises, mutual respect, & patience instead of the hit and run attitude of the past.

Both sides of the Gulf (& larger MENA) deserve a normal, peaceful, & (dare I say) prosperous region. Many are breathing a sigh of relief w/ today’s official Iran-Saudi agreement. All 3 parties to the deal can claim victory, but Saudis are arguably the biggest winner. Why? A 🧵 1. A rapprochement was imminent given the last 2 yrs of talks in Iraq & Oman. So that’s not the surprise - China is! It scores a point against the US in their great power competition, stepping beyond its usual economic & arguably transactional, or at most, short-term arrangements

Current Saudi-US spat is actually good news for both countries. Why so & where is the relationship heading? A thread.

Disagreement has an upside: it forces one to relearn/update info about the other side. No one remains static & this can’t be truer about Saudi right now.

1/12 Disagreements flare up every decade or so between both states. When the events of the past few weeks are measured against past spats, history shows they’re neither new nor phenomenal no matter the hype we hear about the “dramatic” turn of events.

2/12

There is a new gov in #Kuwait. What does the composition tell us? A 🧵

1. Technically, this is a cabinet reshuffle w/ gov formation on Oct 5 & next day resignation of ministers (Oct 6) after the fallout w/ the minister MP whose inclusion is necessary for gov validity (Art. 56). 2. Quota system persists, but it has drastically weakened even when compared to Oct 5 formation. One Shiite (as usual), but less keenness on having most tribes represented leading to a notable reduction in tribal background ministers.

Thread: MBS appeared on TV in a 90-min interview to commemorate 5-yr anniversary of Vision 2030. Not much controversy was expected given the Saudi state’s sponsorship of the event. Timing, presenter, & setup point toward nationalist agenda & local audience, but messages go beyond Interview served 2 main purposes: reaffirm CP’s continuous command of KSA & its local transformation; accentuate recent FP shifts through a revamped persona & realist positions. Extent to which both messages win over though depends less on talk and more on actions on the ground.

THREAD: As expected, it is decrees season in #Oman. Sultan #Haitham just announced 10 more decrees today. Most important of them is the promotion of #Shihab bin Tariq to deputy prime minister for #defense affairs. What are the implications of this decision?

https://twitter.com/omannewsagency/status/1237000469119152129

2. Shihab bin Tariq (b. 1955) is the sultan's full, younger brother (by a year). Shihab and Haitham were part of the candidates list for sultan alongside their half brother, #Asaad. Shihab was #Qaboos's advisor (2004-20) and head of the research council among other duties.