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Europe has cleared out, the Western Sahara plume has finally slowed down to a crawl and the Leviathan low (as I call it remains in place over the Black Sea. Also there is an interesting burst of activity in the Horn of Africa.

Today's #NorthAfrica & #MiddleEast forecasts follow.
As you can see in this animation there was some intense convection over the the #Ethiopian highlands and Sudan today, certainly more than we have seen for a fair few days.
Here we see a wider angle view of today' convection over the horn before sunset. This storm is continuing strongly into the night. Question of the day is, is this signalling the beginning of the big rainy season for the horn.
Read 20 tweets
#Sanaa’s Stipulations Confuses US Policy in #Yemen

As the #Omani delegation left Sana’a, the #American positions on the #Yemen file witnessed a clear contradiction. What are the dimensions of these developments? Are they a reflection of Washington’s

Exclusive- @alkhabar_ye
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failure to exploit #Oman’s relationship with Sana’a to pass its agenda? Or did Sana’a put forward a new vision to mix #Washington’s cards in its new course in #Yemen?
#Washington was counting on its success by embarrassing Sana’a, given the relations it had with the
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Sultanate of #Oman, which would eventually lead to pass the American proposals that originally aimed with the recognition of #US State Department, to halt the progress in #Marib or, more accurately, save its allies from an imminent defeat in their last strongholds in northern
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Read 14 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #ArabianStorms rainfall forecasts follow.

I was wondering if this might happen. With all the moisture streaming along the North African coast and north east from central Africa. Also some forecasts had this indicated as a possibility.
Admittedly the rain is very light. But it is June and close to Solstice, the hottest month in this part of the world. Here we see the broader picture. The #EuropeBigWet is continuing in a fairly stable pattern for another 48 hours still.
Here's a close up of the North Western quadrant with some big storms bursting to life near the Morocco/Algeria border.
Read 23 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.

The images below from @NASA below show 3 north-south cross sections of the Sahara taken this morning.
1. Morocco to Ivory Coast
2. Algeria to Nigeria & DRC
3. Levant to Uganda.
An updated precipitable water animation - 10 Days - for the Sahara. The transit of water in a north easterly direction is finally starting to slow down, albeit not just yet.
10-day rainfall forecasts from four models for North Africa.
Read 21 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.

Below a satellite picture taken this morning of the #HornOfAfrica.

#Ethiopia #Somaliland #Somalia
The wider region this evening.

More #ArabianStorms and #Abbay convection. The Atlantic continues to be active now looks set to deliver a surprise summer storm early next week. [See #EuropeBigWet for that coverage.]
This close up shows more Atlantic moisture pouring into North Africa over Morroco and Western Sahara. You can also see a substantial dust cloud is now forming which will be helping to suppress Atlantic cyclones.
Read 16 tweets
#YEMEN
The Supreme Political Council in Sana’a has stated that it welcomes all honest efforts that help alleviate the suffering of the Yemeni people, by lifting the siege and opening airports and ports without any restrictions.

The Council,in its meeting headed by President
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Mahdi Al-Mashat, praised the efforts of the Sultanate of #Oman and its delegation, which is currently discussing a number of issues related to the humanitarian file in Sana’a.

The Council furthermore confirmed the firm position of the Republic of #Yemen in positively dealing
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with various ideas that does not affect Yemeni sovereignty.

The Council stressed that the re-opening of Sana’a airport and #Hodeida port is “a simple humanitarian right of the Yemeni people, as well as lifting the air, land and sea siege, stopping the aggression, and ending
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Read 5 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.

Below a satellite picture this morning with all the Nile basins including the #Abbay/#BlueNile in #Ethiopia (where it passes through the #GERD) + White Nile, #Sudan, #SouthSudan, #Uganda & the states around Lake Victoria.
10 day rainfall forecasts from the CMC, KMA, GFS and ECMWF models for June 9th through 19th.
A few animations. This one is connected to the separate tweet threads about #EuropeBigWet, which appear to be being driven by Jets of wet air coming off the Atlantic and crossing the Sahara into Europe.

This animation shows a jet crossing Libya and pumping water into Georgia.
Read 17 tweets
Today's forecasts for #NorthAfrica, and the #HornOfAfrica follow.

This 1st image shows the monsoon spreading westwards across the Bay of Bengal. I think it is relevant to the rains in Africa but you will need to wait till the final tweet to see how.

#Ethiopia #Sudan #GERD #Nile
The strength of the West African Monsoon continues to grow as you can see in the animation above. During the current active period (See also #EuropeBigWet) the Sahara is forecast to reach a point where there is water over most of the great desert. Here are 10d rainfall forecasts.
Read 21 tweets
Well its hard to know where to begin with today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.

The action is now further north, and west. Here we see the consequences of the first phase of what appears to be becoming a continuous #WesternSaharaPlume.
An bit of a battle us underway between a high pressure system over Northern Erope and the plume which is entering at the bottom left in this image of Jetstream level 250Hpa 11km high winds.
While the model forecasts remain optimistic that an orderly jetstream may eventually appear, so far this has not happened. And in the meantime these winds are picking up moisture in the tropics and taking it in large quantities to places where its not expected.
Read 27 tweets
A big day for #WestAfricaMonsoon observation.

A full plume event is becoming obvious in central & eastern Europe + Russia. We also have thunderstorms over the Red Sea, and a low circulation heading towards a collision with water vapour over Israel.

Today's forecasts follow.
Visually speaking this is the most extraordinary looking satellite observation of the day.

Now into its sixth day the #EastAfricaWaterPlume has been generating lots of rain over the Red Sea, both last night and today, & right now just off the coast of Jeddah. @Arab_Storms
Here we see a wider view while it is not that obvious in this view, the stream of water vapour heading up the Western Sahara coast is running fast and hot. Later I will post an initial post tracking its impact in Europe. But for now its worth looking closer at North Africa.
Read 27 tweets
At #WHA74, the Sasakawa Health Prize was awarded to Dr Amal Saif Al-Maani, for boosting awareness of antimicrobial resistance and the importance of #HandHygiene, and for advocating for rational use of antimicrobials in #Oman 🇴🇲
To help combat antimicrobial resistance, Dr Al-Maani engaged in the national project “Be Role Model for Hand Hygiene” as part of her advocacy work for #HandHygiene in the community and health care settings in #Oman 🇴🇲
🏆 The 2021 Sasakawa Prize goes to Dr Wu Hao from Fangzhuang Community Health Service Centre in #China 🇨🇳.

Dr Wu has devoted his career to improving community health & integrating the use of technology to ensure more people can access care close to home.
Read 9 tweets
With Cyclone #Yaas soaking up all the moisture east of the #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica it was a relatively calm day. Albeit not without another intense set of storms along the Red Sea Coast in the Jinzan mountains.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The days began relatively quiet on the #WestAfricanMonsoon front thanks to Cyclone #Yaas. This image shows a strip from the Libyan Coast across the Sahara down to the Congo.
And it remained fairly quiet over the great forests of equatorial Africa today. But further West over the Ivory Coast and the West Sahara the #WestAfricaWaterPlume continued to pump water vapour across the Sahara into Europe.
Read 16 tweets
Cyclone #Yaas is just 2 days away from landfall on the North Eastern Indian Coast in the Odisha and once onshore is forecast pass over the ancient city of Jaipur.


Today's #MiddleEast #Sahara and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.
We have a stunningly clear image of the #NileBasin this morning from @NASA Modis from Cairo to Lake Victoria showing the impact of the April and May rains on the landscape.
In today's 10-Day North Africa rain forecasts the European @ECMWF model remains unconvinced about the impact of #WestAfricaWaterPlumes on the Sahara, which as you will soon see are once again having a spectacular impact on European weather.
Read 18 tweets
We have another large #ArabianStorm which was not anticipated by the global weather models. And like those before it, it is fueled by the #WestAfricaMonsoon and a #WestAfricaWaterPlume. This time across the Red Sea in the vicinity of #Makkah.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
This animation shows the current state of a weather event that has been a few days in coming. #ArabianStorms

@Arab_Storms
The origin of this event is very similar to that which caused several days of extremely severe thunderstorms in #Oman earlier in the month. This animation is from May 18th shortly after it first appeared in the @zoom_earth satellite imagery.
Read 15 tweets
Cyclone Tauktae is now onshore over the Indian State of Gujarat India. The storm has weakened since these photos were taken by @NASA Modis this morning, but is still packing 150kmh winds & has done a lot of damage.

Rainfall forecasts for #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica follow.
Today's satellite presentation of the area has a new feature which has been strengthening over the past few days. A stream of water vapour out of Central Africa & Sudan transiting Chad and Sudan and then the Red Sea near Jeddah.
There is also an increasing amount of activity in the Western Sahara which supports the CMC and KMA model predictions of significant rainfall in these areas in recent forecasts.
Read 19 tweets
Today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.

Image: A @NASA Modis image of Egypt, the red sea and the Horn of Africa sources of the Nile taken this morning.
First up we have today's 10-Day accumulated rainfall forecasts for North Africa from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC and KMA weather models.
Here are today's #HOA forecasts beginning with #Ethiopia 10-day rainfall from the ECMWF, GFS and KMA 17th May model runs. #Sudan, #SouthSudan #Somalia #Somaliland
Read 9 tweets
Tonight Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Tauktae is already a Cat 3 Hurricane equivalent Cyclone, 24 hours ahead of schedule and tearing up the West Indian coastline on its way north.

Today's #ME and #HOA rainfall forecasts follow. Image
Three more views from the image.

The first shows the positioning of this morning's @NASA Modis picture of Tauktae in relation to the coast. Nearly half the central convection area is over India.

The 2nd shows a wider perspective. & the 3rd provides borders for orientation. ImageImageImage
Further west here are four images from today of the #HornOfAfrica, the #NileDelta, the #Levant and #UAE + #Oman. ImageImageImageImage
Read 18 tweets
Severe Cyclone Tauktae is happening..... moving north up the West India Coastline and strengthening rapidly. It is expected to become a very severe storm (Cat 3) in 48 hours.

Today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow,
Meanwhile back on solid ground, East Africa is looking resplendently verdant this morning. Here in a photo taken by the @NASA Modis satellite. ImageImage
Eyes in the sky....

There's an unusually clear picture today of the Levant, Israel, Gaza and Jerusalem as the world is watching as the horrific bombardment of Gaza continue. Including today, the bombing of the @AJEnglish and @AP offices.

War crimes are multiplying by the hour. ImageImageImageImage
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Old Labour Oxford Economist Martin #Summers talks about what he believes was a secret and highly illegal nuclear arms deal involving a young and ambitious David #Cameron as well as Doctor David #Kelly. Done behind the back of Nelson #Mandela and the ANC,
designed to raise £17.8m #Tory funding for the 1992 General Election Campaign
-- Origins of Mystery Donation of £17.8 millions: If we can recall HANSARD 22nd June 1993 we can find the following:
Mr. #Hoyle: If the hon. Gentleman will allow me, I shall tell him what information is now given to us. We understand the expenditure and what #Tory central office receives. In 1992, central office received £20.7 million. When we asked about that and about company donations,
Read 20 tweets
David Cameron’s Secret #Nuclear Weapons Deal Raised £17.8m For #Conservative Party Funds – Sets Pretext for War
Sometimes you come across a story that seems so unbelievable that you simply can’t absorb and process the information properly. It doesn’t compute or make much sense –
until an investigation produces evidence.
The allegation is this. David Cameron sold three #nuclear weapons of a foreign state, put them in unsafe hands and the #Conservative party banks nearly £19 million which then sets the pretext for a conflict that kills a million people.
Conspiracy theory? Fake news? Read on.
South Africa – A nuclear state armed by #Israel
From Wikispooks [1]: Although UN Security Council Resolution 418 of 4 November 1977 introduced a mandatory arms embargo against South Africa,
Read 58 tweets
#Palestine:
Al-Qassam warned #Israel with an ultimatum until 18:00 today to withdraw from al-Aqsa and release all prisoners. This indicates once more that Palestine is united and that #Gaza is using its military capability to support the Palestinians everywhere on the territory.
Standing with #Palestine at this moment is a responsibility of all women and men. We are in the 21st century, and this 👇is unacceptable. The world should stand against it.

The Arab leaders who enjoy official diplomatic-commercial relationship and normalised with #Israel are also included I presume #UAE #Bahrein #Qatar #Morocco #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Egypt

Read 9 tweets
The two computer models which are known for their prowess in predicting cyclones continue to forecast cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea in coming days.

The question of whether these cyclones will form hangs over today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.
This image shows the Arabian Sea area where the GFS and ECMWF models are both expecting cyclone formation within the next 10 days, at different times and in different places.
Here's the GFS 9th May model forecast for today showing formation starting on Friday and landfall five days later.
Read 14 tweets
Today's Rainfall Forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow in this thread.

Below you see the Ethiopian Highlands from this morning and including most of the #BlueNile #GERD #Abay watershed . The large storm on the left is mostly over Sudan. On the RHS is #Lalibela.
Here you see an animation of the storm starting up this morning.
This satellite image (@NASA Modis ) shows the area in the Arabian Sea which computer models indicate could generate two cyclones in coming days. You can see the latest GFS forecast runs for those cyclones in the attached thread.
Read 16 tweets
We have a shift to on-shore westerly wind in the Horn of Africa region today, which, I confess means little to me beyond being a new thing in the data. But it seems significant, as there is more water over the sea.

Today's rainfall/cyclone forecasts for the region follow.
Here's a view from this afternoon & the direction of travel is pretty stable. For me onshore winds bringing wet air towards mountains means lots more rain. If anyone is aware of the usual timing of this switch I would be interested.
Here are African 10-Day Accumulated rain forecasts. All of which now show the impact of the two Cyclones which are now in the forecast window.
Read 16 tweets

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