#UBI is becoming increasingly popular. You can explain it in a tweet or on the back of a postage stamp.
What could go wrong? Nothing so obviously beneficial could have a downside, right? You just give money to people who need it. It's fair, it's equitable, it's anti-poverty.
🧵👇
It solves a problem of not enough money. But it's the wrong solution. The problem is a distribution problem. Regressive taxation, laws that favour rentier wealth extraction, capital over labour, de-funding and privatising public services, remove wealth from the lower percentiles.
If you give everyone a small amount of money you do not solve a money shortage problem, you feed a distribution problem.
Even those well intentioned, well motivated self employed types to whom the UBI appeals so much will find that the reality does not live up to the dream.
The underlying distribution problem will continue to siphon wealth from the lower percentiles and direct it to the upper percentiles.
All you will have done is inflate the whole wealth distribution curve by the value of the UBI and it will settle at a new, slightly higher, level.
Those in relative poverty before the UBI will still be in relative poverty after the UBI, the only difference being the numbers in everyone's bank accounts will have increased by the value of the UBI.
That is as simple an explanation as can be made.
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A wee thread on the quantity theory of money and inflation.🧵
MV=PT, or "Printing money" = inflation is wrong because: 1. It assumes newly "printed" money is immediately available to consumers, but doesn't explain how that happens (Friedman suggested a helicopter dropping ££) ...
2. The economy is at/ near full employment and productive capacity, so there is no capacity to absorb new demand or increase production. 3. If everyone is employed and all production is already being consumed, how can there be more demand? Surely it is already satisfied?
4. Everyone wants to spend all the new money the magically get and not save any.
The "money growth" story is great—in theory. Simple, logical, but flawed.
In one diagram: Japan's monetary base and inflation:
The concept of taxpayer funded government is incorrect. Taxes are paid using the government's currency. Taxes can only be paid once the government has created and spent into the economy enough money for people to pay taxes.
The concept of "taxpayer money" creates an impression that government must have an income to fund its spending.
The 'household budget' model planted in peoples' minds makes it possible for government to declare certain spending is "unaffordable" and it "hasn't got the money".
It then has an excuse to either cut the expenditure from its budget, reducing the services it has a duty to provide, or it to increase taxes under the pretence of covering the cost.
The concept of the government as a currency issuer changes the debate about the NHS.
This is not how gilts work. Gilt sales are a drain of excess reserves accrued in the banking sector as a result of *prior* govt spending. The process is clearly defined here ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/publi…
Gilts we’re so called not just because they were valuable, but because the govt that issues them is a currency issuer and can never run out of £ or go bust. Ever. They’re called gilts because HMgov can always pay debts in the currency it issues.
HMgov does not ‘borrow’. It offers a guaranteed safe deposit facility for holders of sterling reserves. That’s all. HMgov is the currency issuer. Why does it need to ‘borrow’ that which it issues? It doesn’t. So why do they sell gilts? >>>
"If instead we argue there is no limit on what we can spend, that we can simply borrow our way out of any hole, what is the point in us?" - @RishiSunak
The point is to hide the truth. If everyone knew how the money system really worked you would not be able to lie like this. 1/4
In a state money system taxes and borrowing don’t fund govt, govt issues the currency. People must sell their goods/ services to earn the state’s money so they can pay tax and buy gilts - AFTER govt has spent it into existence 2/4
In a properly run country, govt use its power of currency creation to provide public services and infrastructure. In a corrupt country, govt use the power of currency creation for personal gain. Services and infrastructure are privatised and govt pretend taxes fund spending 3/4
From BBC's 'The Trick':
—"That's Clever, going after the data behind the modelling"
—"I don't know why everybody expects science models to be perfect I mean, nobody ever goes after economics models, do they?"
—"No, that's because nobody's trying to undermine the economics" 1/7 🧵
The economics models we are used to were developed by neoclassical economists. They don't represent a threat to the establishment like those of climate science, they support it. These models really do need to be undermined, not by subterfuge, by telling the truth. 2/7
From the simple household budget analogy, the curves of Phillips and Laffer, to DSGE models, they are fictions that support the insupportable. Climate science can no longer be denied, so they turn to economics to prove the changes required will be damaging and 'unaffordable'. 3/7