kumar saurabh Profile picture
Jun 9 12 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#IEX A chronological history of all tweets on IEX for learning purposes and current stand in the end
1st caution (it is always probabilistic, sometimes works, sometimes does not) Image
2nd caution Image
Some rant.. Image
Some more interaction rant Image
Data backed rant Image
Reminder rant Image
First fresh kiss but no a full-blown affair Image
Just a small affair Image
Affair ends without much love or pain. Image
The last stand Image
Currently stand:
As an investor: willing to look fundamentally. If you have views on why it has enough margin of safety to give 15%+ CAGR return if one invests with 2–3-year time horizon. If you have one, please provide comments backed by numbers and data.
Please avoid qualitative statements.🙏
As a trader: Charts are obvious. If do not understand, learn technical analysis. s of now, highly bearish unless some big hands control the supply led fall ImageImage

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More from @suru27

Jun 8
#NIIT All about NIIT Demerger. So, NIIT demerger happened and the B2C business now trades at Rs 98. The HIGHLY profitable B2B business is yet to be listed but here is brief analysis.
NIIT has 2 businesses:
B2C: NIIT Limited: Retail learning
B2B: Corporate Learning
The B2C business is more volatile and did just a breakeven this year where as the corporate learning business is high growth high margin business. Here is P&L for B2B business. So, in B2B, we are getting a 20% growth business at 23% EBITDA margin doing ~200 Cr of PAT Image
Also, post demerger, B2B business (NLSL) will have Rs 572 Cr of cash on books Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 22
#CNXIT History of IT Sector in India: A data-based perspective

In last 1.5 years, we witnessed a heavy price correction in IT sector. This is evident from CNXIT index movement which is 32% down in last 1.5 years (we kept cautioning repeatedly then) Image
Now, sector is also facing headwinds. Typically, this is how market behaves. Market is always ahead of reality. It tops when valuations highlight major froth, smart money slowly exits n new entrants think they know it all, are scapegoats. Companies r lowering their guidance. ImageImage
Within a year, we have come from healthy double digit growth to low to mid single digit growth projection. Question is - Is it something new or there is something to learn from history?
History is an interesting subject and price is the first guide. Lets us look at history
Read 9 tweets
Apr 21
#KMC My 10 min work. Thanks for initiating idea @Coolfundoo as this was not the stock I was mentioning.

Whenever I get new idea, i pass it to some of my in built tools and back of envelope calculation to check if its worth deep diving as we cant go in detail on evert stock
Coming to KMC, it has gone through major asset expansion in last 2 years and at visible potential, it should have Rs 100 Cr of net fixed asset Image
If we look at history, peak net fixed asset turnover has been 2.4 which means, it can do peak sales of Rs 240 cr (say achievable in 3 years from current TTM Rs 147 Cr, thats how usually hospitals scale) Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 21
🧵A thread on Scientific Investing YouTube credibility report of last 1 year (important as fin-influencers are termed as stock peddlers on SM).
Link: youtube.com/ScientificInve…

16 stocks n sectors discussed with positive bias since 2022 had a mean return on 24% till today
💡 31% of stocks/sectors discussed have > 50% return till today with mean 77% return

💡 38% of stocks/sectors discussed have >0% return with mean 8% return

💡31% of stocks/sectors discussed < 0% return with mean -8% return
1. Karur Vysya Bank (50 to 100): 100%
2. Neuland Labs (1100 to 2000): 80%
3. City Union Bank (125 to 200 to 125): 0%
4. Aegis Logistic (210 to 390): 80%
5. Jash Engineering (570 to 900 to 830): 70%
6. SJS (410 to 540 to 410): 0%
7. FINO (250 to 210): -17%
Read 10 tweets
Mar 3
We all love @dspmf Netra and Tathya reports and here is latest one: dspim.co/NetMar23

Want to understand these reports in detail and extract best out of them, follow this🧵

At Scientific Investing, we hosted Sahil Kapoor @SahilKapoor from DSP to discuss these reports
and much more including macro, markets, budget, data, inflation, recession, interest rate, demand etc. Here is discussion summary:

💡Reasons Behind Netra and Tathya

👉Track 50 markets daily to monitor outliers & further studying macroeconomic data

👉 Macroeconomics is
at times very subjective and misused with too much focus on forecasting

👉What will impact the market is very important

👉 Tathya is compendium of 50+ indicators divided into 5 macroeconomic sections to understand various parts of economy at times very subjective
Read 34 tweets
Feb 1
#SouthIndianBank Bank101: How security receipts and NPA pool selling transactions with ARCs work. Gold learning for me on the detailing and thanks to Tushar Sarda for asking 1/n

#Q3FY23 #ConcallInsights with Scientific Investing. Give us a shoutout if our work helps🙏
More on same
More..
Read 5 tweets

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