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1/ Before we enter a sunny summer where fecund nature's bounty grows green and wild and where the laughter of the warm wind caresses the flowers, let's get some perspective over the indictment, the GOP field, the conservative media apparatus, and the dangers of magical thinking.
2/ The argument the case must be airtight if they're moving it to Miami to protect it from venue challenges that would obtain if it were tried in DC is...dangerous.
There's no better summary than this from @MarcACaputo:
themessenger.com/politics/trump…
There's no better summary than this from @MarcACaputo:
themessenger.com/politics/trump…
@MarcACaputo 3/ Miami is a hotbed of Trump voters, supporters, skells, dreamers, boat-paraders, cultists, and people terrified of dead communists and imaginary communism.
The baseline of tolerable corruption in Miami makes normies heads spin.
The baseline of tolerable corruption in Miami makes normies heads spin.
4/ It only takes one sleeper on the jury to set Trump free. DC types and particularly DOJ DC types think evidence triumphs, and in a just world it should.
Among the MAGAe, particularly the South FL MAGAe, they live in a profoundly alternate reality.
Among the MAGAe, particularly the South FL MAGAe, they live in a profoundly alternate reality.
5/ Hope for the best, plan for the worst, but even people in South FL who don't scan as MAGA during jury selection won't be MAGA in action, or motivated by alternate media the DOJ doesn't understand. Stuff on Miami WhatsApp and Miami radio makes Fox look like the BBC.
6/ Obvious criminality is not a disqualifier in the GOP today. The profound, catastrophic corruption of the MAGA GOP was on full display last night. Don't ignore it; learn from it. No serious candidate (sorry, Asa) did anything beyond...
7/ ...defending Trump and pushing the alt-reality fantasy of an Evil Deep State DOJ. Millions and millions of Americans believe this. They accept it. They embrace it as a matter of nearly religious faith.
None of the candidates do.
None of the candidates do.
8/ Not. One. They're roleplaying, while talking off the record to reporters off the record (of course) about how this will bleed Trump and they'll be the one to snatch to laurels.
Please. 2016 called, and it wants its magical thinking back.
Please. 2016 called, and it wants its magical thinking back.
9/ They're all (sorry Asa) diet Trump. Their consultants are all gambling on a conviction will pretending its some kind of outrage. It's all a performative lie, and an insult to both the press and the people.
That's it. That's their whole strategy.
That's it. That's their whole strategy.
10/ As for the conservative media apparatus, I divide it between gentry and vulgar. They gentry conservative media (eg NRO et al) hate Trump and love Ron DeSantis and they're praying for Jack Smith.
That said, they're playing along with the "deep state DOJ" storyline.
That said, they're playing along with the "deep state DOJ" storyline.
11/ The vulgar con media is 100000x larger than the intellectual gentry media and communicates using memes, grunts, and simple pictograms for their credulous audience. Their audience is also comprised of high-propensity GOP voters.
They will take imaginary charges...
They will take imaginary charges...
12/ ...against Biden and treat them as empirical truth. The noise level (aided by Jordan, Comer and the rest of the House Mutant Parade) will flood the zone with outrageous, stupidly obvious lies.
It will further marginalize the GOP field.
They have an ally in this effort.
It will further marginalize the GOP field.
They have an ally in this effort.
13/ Who could it be, you ask?
Why, it's the mainstream media. The more they treat the spurious charges against Biden on an equal level with the real and consequential charges against Trump, Trump is winning. MAGA is winning.
The media ought not treat lies like truth, but...
Why, it's the mainstream media. The more they treat the spurious charges against Biden on an equal level with the real and consequential charges against Trump, Trump is winning. MAGA is winning.
The media ought not treat lies like truth, but...
14/ ...the deeply wired he-said/she-said DC game of media ping pong is a powerful normative force. Cf the massive struggle 2016-present for the media to call Trump's constant mendacity by its name: lies.
So you'll see Jack Smith's and James Comer's assertions treated equally.
So you'll see Jack Smith's and James Comer's assertions treated equally.
15/ For the love of God, don't imagine this will be easy. Don't fall victim to the same seductive pull of "The X case/charges/investigation/indictment will finally take Trump out.
There is no deus ex DOJ and there never has been.
There is no deus ex DOJ and there never has been.
16/ Trump did this to himself. He's guilty as leftover sin. He deserves to die in custody for his manifold crimes.
None of this makes him less likely to win the GOP nomination, and in some ways makes him more formidable for 2024 against Biden.
There's no substitute for...
None of this makes him less likely to win the GOP nomination, and in some ways makes him more formidable for 2024 against Biden.
There's no substitute for...
17/ ...doing the hard lifting of the campaign, of unifying the pro-democracy movement behind Biden, of working smart valences with persuadable GOPers (it's a small, but vital segment we at @ProjectLincoln moved in 2020 and 2022), and...
18/ ...caving Trump's head in every single day. The GOP primary is the press trying to make a horserace out of horseshit and Jeff Roe scamming Ron for $200 million. The rest is all noise.
Work for Trump's final defeat, and break the crapulous, violent, low movement he leads.
Work for Trump's final defeat, and break the crapulous, violent, low movement he leads.
19/ Don't count on miracles.
Do the work.
Ends.
Do the work.
Ends.
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