2023 might be 1936 all over again - beyond the weather 🤔
Yes, I'm a nerd🤓
Spent my entire afternoon looking at El Niño (blue) & La Niña (pink) data for the past century. Stars reflect triple dip La Niña, which we just finished. Might explain our unusually dry weather./thread
Weaker triple dip La Niñas occurred in 1973-76 & 1998-2001 - perhaps why the drought severity wasn't as extreme as previous triple dips.
From mid-April 2022 more than 97% of Texas was gripped by drought
👋 Hi Texas - if history is any guide, then it looks like El Niño will bring you some relief.
Yup, appears to be happening...
Earth scientists, historians, and archaeologists have theorized El Niño had a role in the demise of several ancient civilizations, including the Inca, other cultures in the Americas (don't worry El Niño, ChatGPT has you covered for modern civilization) earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/ElNin…
“The onset of El Niño has implications for placing 2023 in the running for warmest year on record when combined with climate-warming background” stalbertgazette.com/beyond-local/h…
Sort of like 1936 after the 1933-35 triple dip?
Hmmm, interesting to see that 1936 was also a pretty bad year for forest fires in North America & Australia.
"1936 North American cold wave ranks among the most intense cold waves in recorded North American meteorological history. The Midwest US and the Prairie Provinces of Canada were hit the hardest, but only the SW and California largely escaped its effects" markvoganweather.com/2015/12/20/a-l…
Hold on winter of 1936!
Care Our Earth said that Record-Breaking Cold Waves in the Winter 2022-2023 *Linked to Global Warming* had you beat: careourearth.com/record-breakin…
Please humour me & allow me to speculate, if 2023 is 1936 - will 2024 be 1937?
1933-1937: Reflation policy backed by an aggressive increase in government spending, the maintenance of large deficits, the abandonment of the #gold standard, and monetary easing.
'Short-term interest rates were constrained at zero, if people expect prices will rise, the real rate of interest turns from positive to negative. It becomes more economical to spend $ than save it. Reflation can also repair balance sheets of over leveraged households & firms.'
The Mistake of 1937 was to relinquish benefits of reflation & set all policy levers in reverse. Fed officials hinted at hikes, endorsed austerity in fiscal policy; the key concern was containing inflation rather than sustaining recovery.
'It is unlikely, however, that a modern economist put in the same position would respond to the commodity price rise in the same way. Economists today generally do not focus on commodity prices without regard to the behavior of the aggregate price index' libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2011/06/commod…
'Today’s economists, guided by economic research on general equilibrium models over the past several decades are a bit better at distinguishing movements in relative prices driven by temporary disruptions—such as the rally in commodity markets in 1937—
from movements in core inflation, which may reflect broader inflation pressures.'
2023: 2008 or 1936? I'm going with 1936.
/END
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I've had many attendees tell me that my 'Rhyme of History' presentation helped put pieces together to make sense of what is happening. I hope this helps you too.
Some of the slides I won't share publicly but here's most of it, ICYI:
1) Beware of impersonators.
There are a lot of traps out there, please dig beyond the surface and don't believe anything at first glance.
Corruption is everywhere, from the stock market to the government. It doesn't do you any good to deny it exists.
However, the good in this world far outweighs the bad - something that will be very important to remember in the coming days.
We all know the name Chrystia Freeland, but do you know the name Michael Sabia? Justin Trudeau and the Desmarais family know Sabia rather well - you probably should too.
Michael Sabia was the Deputy Minister of Finance Canada from December 2020 to June 2, 2023.
/Thread
Under Sabia:
Public debt costs increased from $24.5B in 2021-2022 to $34B in 2022-23, reaching $46.5B in 2023.
'The $15 billion that Mr. Sabia had announced in the 2022 federal budget for the creation of the Canada Growth Fund have not yet yielded anything. A year and a half after its creation, the Fund still has no manager and has not announced any investment.'
There is one family running Canada and the last name is not Trudeau, it's Desmarais.
Major shareholders of Lion Electric? Say it ain't so...
@GregMcLeanYYC
@MPelletierCIO
@RealAndyLeeShow
/Thread
A long time top donor to the Liberal party, the Desmarais family, the owners of the appropriately named Power Corporation have had an intimate connection with Canadian prime ministers for decades. niagaraindependent.ca/power-corps-50…
'Canadians need only to follow the money and connect the dots between the main players of the governing Liberals to comprehend PM Trudeau’s unintelligible – and unprincipled – responses to the CCP.' niagaraindependent.ca/the-ties-that-…
NYT 1977
The major extreme in the US at the moment is drought. It extends over 30% of the country and is spreading. Water rationing, which began in California, is now commonplace throughout the West and has spread into Iowa and as far east as NC.(1/4) nytimes.com/1977/07/14/arc…
Nearly 3/4s of the nation's rivers are flowing below normal, according to the USGS.
Why the extreme fluctuations nobody knows for sure. Explanations include cyclical changes in solar activity, in elliptical warps of the earth's orbit, in gravitational pulls of other planets,
and volcanic activity to name a few. Some scientists assert that man's pollution may be responsible. Some laymen believe governments are secretly manipulating the weather in a kind of climatic warfare.
India drought: The Great Disruptor for 2023
While everyone keeps looking over to China for supply/demand side signals for most ag market prices, instead the market should be looking over to India as the surprise catalyst for 2023.
(1/4) barchart.com/story/news/176…
June is looking to be the driest and hottest seen in decades.
July is the wettest, most important month of the growing season for India; if July misses there is no way to recover crop potential. July could be the worst monsoon season since the failed July of 2002.
India experiencing strong economic growth with some of the best demographics in the world and arguably the most populace country in the world…India might be the new demand source to drive Ag prices higher as China did back in the 2000's.
OPEC+ in "a state of readiness" amid a divergence between the physical and futures oil markets, which has prompted the 23-member alliance to take decisions that are preemptive, precautionary and proactive, Saudi Arabia's energy minister said June 11 (1/5) spglobal.com/commodityinsig…
"I think the physical market is telling us something, I think the futures market is telling us something else," Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told the Arab China Business Conference streamed live from Riyadh.
Brushing off criticism of the latest OPEC+ decisions, Prince Abdulaziz said he tolerates "all mockeries," adding "I am much more interested with my colleagues in OPEC+ to do the job of being a proper regulator."