Thread by @davidhelms570

1/ This thread rebuts claims made by Mikael "Vatnikersson" Valterson against @Ukrhydroenergo, saying Ukraine's state dam operator, "was the original culprit" in destroying the #KakhovkaHPP and exacerbating dam destruction flooding. A #NAFOWeather 🧵

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1666510530444402708

2/ As "Readers" pointed out, the video Vatnikersson used to "prove" Ukraine sent water downstream to #KakhovkaHPP was almost 2 months old. The video proves nothing. Vatnikersson made no attempt to clarify the temporal discrepancy; the tweet is still posted.

3/ Vatnikersson made several allegations in his tweet that accused Ukraine of destroying its own dam as well as causing post-dam failure flooding. I will unpack these allegations.

4/ First some background: The Dnipro "Cascade" is a system of 6 dams on the Dnipro River within Ukraine. Ukraine operates the first 5 dam while Russian occupiers have "operated" the 6th and final dam on the Dnipro since 24 FEB 2022, the now destroyed #KakhovkaHPP.

5/ Together, 6 Dnipro Cascade dams have 18.5 cubic kilometers (km**3) of useful water storage; Kremenchuk Reservoir alone has 48.5% (8.97km**3) storage. If @Ukrhydroenergo was deliberately sending more water than normal to #KakhovkaHPP, upstream dams would be LOWER than normal.

6/ 50% Dnipro River annual flow occurs between April and June as winter snow melts in the upper Dnipro basin. Typically, spring peak flow provides 26.4 km**3 water. The upper 5 dams on the cascade storage is only 11.82 km**3... this means over 14 km**3 MUST FLOW to #KakhovkaHPP.

7/ Dealing with Vatnikersson's allegations
1.a “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”.
The IG video shows Dnipro HPP discharging water. Why? Because in April the Dnipro River was in flood. That's was responsible dam operators do.

8/ Allegation 1.a “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”.
@Ukrhydroenergo discharged water because, in addition to snow melt, April had significant rain. How do I know? I tweeted about it at the time.

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1650851736368697345

9/ Allegation 1.a “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”.
In the month of April 2023, the Ukrainian Hydrological Center issued river flood warnings. How do I know? I tweeted about it.

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1651927372549988352?s=20

10/ Allegation 1.a “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”.
Even during the Dnipro peak spring flow, the 19 April 2023 video shows @Ukrhydroenergo was prudently managing the flood waters with only a fraction of sluice gates are open.

11/ Allegation 1.a “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”.
The attached 3 images show the storage status of 3 upstream reservoirs. If Vatnikersson was correct, the dams would be below normal water level, but all were > storage level!

12/ Allegation 1.a “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”.
How do I know that @Ukrhydroenergo was holding as much water upstream as safely possible from April-June 2023? Because I tweeted about it.

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1651927372549988352?s=20

13/ Vatnikersson Allegation 1.a: “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”
@Ukrhydroenergo was professionally & responsibly managing the 5 upstream dams during 2023 spring peak flow season, what were Russian occupiers doing at K-HPP?

14/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know that the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
Without proof, Vatnikersson provides Russian occupiers an abibi, stating RF "couldn't open the gates" at K-HPP. Let's fact check this alibi.

15/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
RF missed opportunities to divert water from Kakhovka Reservoir through:
Kherson & Zaporizhzhia Irrigation Canals
K-HPP Lock
K-HPP Turbines
K-HPP Sluice Gates

16/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
Russian occupiers could have discharged water through the K-HPP lock, especially after the RF 11 NOV 2022 retreat, but they didn't.

https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1580049554618994688?s=20

17/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
Russian occupiers could have discharged water through Kakhovsky Main Canal which would have diverted nearly 1 km**3 water and lowered the #KakhovkaReservoir

18/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
... but in November 2022, the Russian occupiers bombed and flooded the KMC main pumping station creating "a disaster".
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/362…

19/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
Russian occupiers could have discharged water through the 6 #KakhovkaHPP electric turbines ...

20/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
... but Russian occupiers destroyed K-HPP's ability to generate electricity. Saldo: "turbines do not produce electricity"
novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/…

21/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
Russian occupiers could have opened some additional K-HPP sluice gates to relieve water pressure...

22/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
... but Russian occupiers stopped active water management after 1 DEC 2022 for no apparent reason. RF had opened/closed sluice gates from 24 FEB to 1 DEC 2022

23/ Other Vatnikersson Allegations: @Ukrhydroenergo water discharge from upstream dams after 6 JUN 2023
Ridiculous statement: RF destruction of K-HPP released over 10 km**3 of water on lower Dnipro in 1 day, orders of magnitude larger than water released in the upper cascade.

24/ RF occupiers filled #KakhovkaReservoir to record levels (17.5 meters) and then destroyed the #KakhovkaHPP for maximum damage. RF did this not for military advantage, but to harm Ukraine's economic viability, this was an act of economic terrorism. end/

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1668267994118602754?s=20

.@threadreaderapp unroll