Read on Twitter
Quick follow up to one of my previous threads on #bitcoin, energy use and Kardashev level societies.
https://twitter.com/wasrichnowbroke/status/1647140312865808384
Regarding the advantages of nuclear energy, such as its high energy density, lower pollution levels, and potential for greater reliability. Nuclear has the potential to be a significant contributor to our energy needs, and it is indeed considered a viable option
The availability (on Earth) of uranium or other fissile materials required for nuclear reactors is limited. The Non-Proliferation Treaties have also slowed the growth of development into Nuclear reactors. 
The number of countries operating power reactors in 1996-1997 reached 32. It took another 23 years to reach a new peak at 33 countries.
Nine of the current 33 nuclear countries have either nuclear phase-out, no-new-build or no-program-extension policies in place.
Nine of the current 33 nuclear countries have either nuclear phase-out, no-new-build or no-program-extension policies in place.
All of that aside, how long, roughly, will our current globally known supply of fissile materials last?
It's challenging to provide a precise estimate due to the numerous variables involved, we can offer a rough estimate based on some assumptions.
It's challenging to provide a precise estimate due to the numerous variables involved, we can offer a rough estimate based on some assumptions.
According to the World Nuclear Association, known conventional uranium resources are estimated to be around 6.2 million metric tons.
Assuming a typical light-water reactor with a once-through fuel cycle, a rough average conversion rate of 1 metric ton of uranium into approximately 27,000 MWh of electricity can be used
Global electricity consumption varies significantly, but for the purpose of estimation, let's take a rough figure of 25,000 TWh (terawatt-hours) per year, which is approximately the current global electricity consumption.
Now, if we divide the known conventional uranium resources (6.2 million metric tons) by the conversion rate (27,000 MWh per metric ton), we get an estimate of around 167,000,000,000 MWh of electricity that could be generated from these resources.
Dividing this by the annual global electricity consumption (25,000 TWh or 25,000,000,000 MWh), we get a rough estimate of around 6,680 years.
Considering an average compound growth rate of 3% in energy generation and use, and the current known deposits of fissile material, we can revise the rough estimated time frame before running out of fissile material.
Assuming a constant 3% annual growth rate in energy generation and use, the global electricity consumption would roughly double in approximately 23.5 years.
Given the estimated uranium resources of 6.2 million mt, and assuming no additional discoveries or technological advancements, if the rate of consumption doubles every 23.5 years, it would take roughly five doubling periods to exhaust the known conventional uranium resources.
Adding up the durations of these five doubling periods, we get an approximate estimated time frame of around 352 years before exhausting the known conventional uranium resources
A mix of energy sources will be needed in the future, but stalling on the buildout and research into clean, truly renewable energy must be focused on.
@threadreaderapp unroll
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
