Thread by @sambendett

1/ Russian Telegram channels are discussing a new Ukrainian air defense suppression tactic: Russian aviation launched guided bombs/missiles from a safe distance, forcing Ukr. military to position air defense systems closer to the front line to shoot them down. Then...

2/ ...The Russian forces launch Lancet drones to target these air defense positions, and hit Ukr soldiers with the help of sniper ambushes. When Ukr. military tries to pursue these snipers, they flee on ATVs, and are protected by mortar screening fire. t.me/uav_tech/16560

3/ "That is, the Ukr. air defense is given no choice - if thye will not shoot down Rus. glide bombs, important targets are hit on the front line. If they try to shoot them down, their air defense systems can be destroyed."

4/ "This scheme is working. Our field commanders are more resourceful and smarter than many generals in Moscow. At a local level, they show how it is generally possible to suppress adversary anti-aircraft defense."

5/ "This process of mastering new wars strongly reminds me of Afghanistan, where commanders spontaneously applied network databases (сетевые БД). When, the raiders negotiated directly with artillerymen and helicopter pilots for operations, while bypassing the generals."

6/ Previously, Russian commanders experimented with short-range quadcopters and FPVs for greater efficiency - this post shows experimentation at a much larger scale. Even if this is part of propaganda, Lancet drones are indeed becoming more dangerous.

7/ This AP/Military Times article confirms many of the points made in this Telegram post. militarytimes.com/news/your-mili…

8/ Usual caveats apply with such pro-Kremlin Telegram channels - all content is part of the larger information environment. However, certain key tech and systems patterns described/identified are in fact apparent and are used by the Russian military.

9/ Correction - сетевые БД refers to "netcentric warfare" and not to the databases. That part refers to the Soviet (apparently localized) attempts to connect different military systems and formations.