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Logan Mohtashami

@LoganMohtashami

Jun 13 • 9 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo

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#CPI 📉

🥱💤😴

The decline in the growth rate in shelter inflation has started for CPI

The mad max basket looks about right

The hobbits eat two breakfast basket growth rate is fading for the Food portion.

I am glad I bought my new car in October 2020 is also cooling off

With shelter inflation fading now over the next year it’s impossible to have a 1970’s repeat, you need this to take off again since it’s shelter is 44.4% of CPI

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More from @LoganMohtashami

Logan Mohtashami

@LoganMohtashami

Jun 15

https://twitter.com/HomesliceMike/status/1669450194189156352

When rates fall, it has never created more active listings one time post-2010. Not once 🫡😉
It creates more demand, but it has never created more inventory
If I had one year of data to show this to be the case I would say there is shot

https://twitter.com/HomesliceMike/status/1669450194189156352

Trust the data ☺️🙌🏽

Year over year active inventory is higher this year but as demand stabilized it’s running into hard comps and will soon be negative year over

Read 5 tweets

Logan Mohtashami

@LoganMohtashami

Jun 15

https://twitter.com/CNBCTheExchange/status/1669409592927764498

We are going to do another. It's not a 2007/2008 thread.

1. 2007 had 4 million active listings 🫡

https://twitter.com/CNBCTheExchange/status/1669409592927764498

2. We had massive credit stress build-up in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. All before the job loss recession in 2008

3. We already had the sales crash, and we have gotten to historically low levels with total inventory levels not getting back to 2019 levels

Read 12 tweets

Logan Mohtashami

@LoganMohtashami

Jun 15

https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1669305496220708865

Fixed debt cost, rising wages, the best hedge against inflation on planet Earth.
A 30-year mortgage 🫡

https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1669305496220708865

When you have the best hedge on planet Earth on your books, you don't traditionally sell to be homeless when employed.
Maybe it's the Gotham in me, but I always thought that was an odd premise 😎
Remember, credit channels!

Remember, homeowners don't look at their homes like stock traders do. They don't sell their home, take the $, lose that payment, and invest it for a risk-free 5% return.
🫡

Read 4 tweets

Logan Mohtashami

@LoganMohtashami

Jun 14

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1669081640788795392

🪵🪚 Input cost fell ☺️ Lumber vs. Housing 2023 call failed 🪓 for the right reason. Forward data started to get better on November 9th video below will explain the rest