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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Jun 15, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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A fire has broken out in Jerusalem near the aquarium and zoo and the water spring that is there at the end of the road in the video #happeningnow; fire services are arriving at this moment 🔥 🚨
Fire services are trying to put it out Image
It appears from the other side that most of it has been contained Image
The Jerusalem aquarium in the foreground
Now due to wind it has grown a bit and they are using planes on it and moving fire services above it
Planes fighting the fire
A second fire now in Jerusalem Image
Low flying fire fighting planes over Gilo heading to the zoo Image
Another photo of the planes Image

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 23
China hosting Hamas in order to try to bring it as a trojan horse into the Palestinian Authority so Hamas can run the West Bank with the fig leaf of the other factions being used...is the most clear example of how Hamas was rewarded for Oct. 7
Rather than being isolated after the worst massacre of Jews since the Shoah and one of the worst massacres in history, Hamas immediately got MORE backing from Moscow-Tehran-Ankara-Beijing-Doha.
If Hamas had NOT done October 7 it wouldn't have been invited to the unity talks in Beijing. Basically the attack led a bunch of countries to take Hamas more seriously and think of it as a bigger player they want to back to bring it to power.
Read 6 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 19
Thoughts on the drone attack on Tel Aviv and the Houthi claims.

First, this is an escalation. The increased use of drones by all the Iranian-backed groups has increased their threats and range of attacks
Second, the Houthis have been claiming increased range for their drones for months. They have been talking about reaching the Mediterranean and also cooperation with Iranian-backed groups in Iraq

timesofisrael.com/houthis-claim-…
See for instance washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
Read 9 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 17
There appears to be a narrative forming about how Hamas is suddenly weakened and Israel is making headway in Gaza. A number of articles and commentary have been pushing this. However, it’s as important to be skeptical of this as it was on Oct. 6 to be skeptical of theories about Hamas being deterred and weak.
So let’s ask a key question about the narrative that Hamas is suddenly facing defeat. Where is the evidence of this? It still controls 90% of Gaza. Are there areas where it has lost control?
There is another theme that wants to see Israel declare victory and assert that Hamas “capabilities” have been destroyed and it can no longer do another Oct 7. This is the new low bar of “victory.”
Read 8 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 17
This entire war is a study in how policies that were designed to prevent a massive war, actually led to one. Basically since 2005, and especially after 2009-2014 the theory was that Hamas could be left in charge there and allowed to grow much more powerful, and there was a “this is fine” mentality
It’s essential to understand this lesson. If you let enemies grow to strong then you can spend huge amounts of resources having to fight them and it’s not an easy task. Each part of the task in Gaza takes months or years and it’s multiple levels of challenges. Hamas isn’t just a relatively strong terror group, like Al-Shabab, it has so many aspects such as its partnership with NGOs and the UN, its leadership in Doha, its underground infrastructure, the border tunnels, etc.
The addiction to managing this conflict and ignoring Hamas and being complacent while Israel prepared for war in the north and Israel even paid lip service to preparing for a “multi-front” war, never imagined a major war in Gaza
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 14
Many believe that if Mohammed Deif was eliminated on July 13 this will have a major impact on Hamas. But there's reason to be skeptical about this also. According to what is known Deif is never seen or photographed in public, he seems to spend most of his time isolated, hiding.
A commander who is rarely in touch with his own brigade or battalion commanders, must have a hard time controlling the battle. That means that if it's true they rarely met with him, then he didn't have day-to-day control, so if he is eliminated, wouldn't the rest of Hamas continue on mostly as before?
The reason I wonder about this, is that if his importance is a "military" commander, in the history of military commanders is there an example of one who is in hiding or not in touch with the forces much but also is of great importance, whose demise simply cannot happen?
Read 14 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 7
What if instead of working with Hamas and whitewashing its presence, major NGOs and the UN had produced quarterly reports since 2007 about Hamas illegal activity such as using hospitals, schools, stealing aid, tunneling under civilian facilities.
These reports would have served as a warning and Hamas would not have felt free to hide among the humanitarians and exploit them as cover and then get hired by these NGOs and basically turn them into a partner of the extremist group
This would have saved a huge number of lives and destruction in Gaza.
Read 17 tweets

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