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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
@_ppmv
Jun 16 • 13 tweets • 10 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. This is extremely funny because Martin was shocked by WHO reporting 1.5 million COVID-19 infections in the last 26 days worldwide. In reality, China alone accounts for 40-65 million infections *per week*.

Check out Germany's updated excess mortality, the highest ever. Stabil. ImageImage
2. We always share links because that's the only way people can check data and learn for themselves, so here goes: ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…
3. Excellent that @MartinStamer you consider Informationskrise as one of the four (three?) major crises. Excellent focus also with Arendt, thanks! Roughly:

A Climate crisis
B Information crisis
C Public health (virus) crisis
D Food crisis, due to (A)
@MartinStamer 4. Data from China now only monthly because EU, US, UK and presumably others, possibly including China, forced WHO to end the COVID-19 PHEIC, by withholding sequencing and international surveillance.

Without epidemiological data there is no epidemiology.
@MartinStamer 5. As political scientist one always thinks about institutions. Hilariously, German think tanks and even the government (#NationaleSicherheitsstrategie) don't see an unmitigated twin SARS and monkeypox pandemic, both classical bioweapons, as security risk.
6. Please understand that monkeypox virus was used in biological weapons development in the late 1980s because the Soviets knew they couldn't continue working with variola virus. Give it enough time and it'll be as contagious as smallpox. @49security Image
@49security 7. SARS is extremely serious, but thousands of scientists worldwide focus. Within years society will reach the understanding that we need to eliminate it.

For orthopoxviruses (OPV) we can still avert the worst. I rank both similarly in pandemic potential.
@49security Maybe this is worth repeating. Let's get on the same page: I know you all know that monkeypox is airborne. You may as well stop pretending. The White House itself tells you. There is literally no debate worth having.
9. Monkeypox Mpox has 10% CFR in under 5 yo’s in DRC. If you think people will accept “living with” a 10% CFR pox disease, I have fantastic bridges to sell you.
10. Let's all get on the same page. Germany is currently sequencing 19 (!) SARS-CoV-2 samples per week. That's about 0% of cases. At that rate, they will presumably detect a new variant once it reaches 30% prevalence.

Only France is acceptable. @ECDC_EU …id19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/variants_of_co… Image
@ECDC_EU 11. Germany @rki_de @BMG_Bund stopped reporting all but ICU data, including community and hospital data, so COVID-19 data is meaningless now. (There is no prevention to be done once people are in the ICU.) 0% was 3 sequenced out of 6690 in week 19. Enjoy, Image
@ECDC_EU @rki_de @BMG_Bund 12. Note on interdisciplinary methods for comparative scholars. Did we emphasize clearly enough what a present SARS is for comparative scholars? This was clear in Jan 2020 but never grows old. Or better, some age faster than others. ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…
Image
@ECDC_EU @rki_de @BMG_Bund 13. Russia grows younger faster than every other state.

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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 17
Fortunately I’m a rocket scientist, so here the public health decision every state worldwide now faces, broken down to its essence. Do you want to live with a SARS virus in your much shortened, disease-ridden lives or would you rather not?

That’s the only real question here. Image
2. Previous iterations of this deep insight. I’m not satisfied with “explode” here because while true on an intergenerational scale, explosive typically denotes a process faster than multiple years - as it will take - to most people. Should say “increase.”
3. You’d think whether we want to live with a SARS and smallpox-like virus (monkeypox ~ variola virus) is at the heart of the German national security policy debate #Sicherheitsstrategie? Cute.

In reality, as @RikeFranke argued, German millennials are incredibly bad at strategy.
Read 15 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 17
What were the funniest retweets you got? This by a grifting right wing journalist who doesn’t know what he’s talking about must be my favorite: Image
There has been no public discussion on COVID-Ebola (SARS-CoV-2 / Ebola virus) parallels. That was just one of the many interesting questions never debated while it mattered.
Let's make it the funniest retweets and replies. - Good Sir, before I return to rocket science, I think birds are not real either. Image
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 17
Every cat video gets more likes, but the information we share may help people who learn: ImageImage
This was popular too but twitter search didn’t return it. The big question is whether China’s massive XBB wave, daughter mutation of BA.2, generates a BA.5 BF.7 circulating recombinant form. Chances are good, given hundreds of millions of reinfections.
This is excellent, timely analysis by @RajlabN. The only problem is that China essentially stopped genetic surveillance and sequencing, or at least publishing, so it’s happy dark times in the health data department.
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 16
1. Covering the 4Cs: children, climate, complexity, coronaviruses (CoV). As Covid is counterintuitive I share data. Excess mortality is high in every state safe New Zealand, which implemented #ZeroCovid. For solutions read Quarantine law and WHO member states' pandemic playbooks. Image
2. Current excess mortality is fascinating -- Taiwan, Japan, Australia at the same level. Germany nearly half as high as Italy, similar to Hong Kong/Macao, which COULD be indicative of China. India data (?!?) Russia a complete desaster even before the war. ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro… ImageImage
3. China CDC now reports cases only once a month. (Counter western media coverage claiming they stopped reporting?) The reason given is that WHO ended the COVID-19 PHEIC in May. If the West had wanted timely data, they shouldn't have ended it.

Amateurs. chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/zl/sz… ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 15
Details on Germany’s first National Security Policy (NSS). Like Chinese Five-Year-Plans, such documents can indicate intent. Way to go for Germany. Good: climate focus. Bizarre: Germans don’t recognize the circulating pandemic SARS virus and orthopoxvirus (OPV) as security risks.
2. Not saying people need to comment, but IF you want to make a difference on German national security policy. 🤷‍♂️ Germany is in complete denial. Coronaviruses and orthopoxviruses are CLASSICAL biological weapons systems. Literally every expert knows this.
3. That’s why it’s so funny that everyone is pretending they don’t know everyone else is pretending. C’mon on, at least laugh about this great meme if you aren’t going to say anything. Image
Read 11 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 5
1. How many years did SARS-CoV-1 survivors live on average? What were their COD? There were no reinfections. I can’t believe that I must share the question (for free on twitter) for there to be any public discourse; it should be all over the press. You have almost the same virus.
2. Influenza kills when viral load exceeds a threshold and the cell pops like a balloon. Western virologists don’t understand SARS doesn’t behave like this. Patients die in the acute phase from immune system dysfunction of NK/CD8+ cells and cytokine storm.
3. These differential dynamics are important because even today, western virologists use the wrong mental model for SARS. I assume their software packages can’t even model the SARS-CoV replication process. This explains their horrendous errors and deadly policy advice. 🧀🧠
Read 4 tweets

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