Share this page!

Enter Twitter Thread URL to Unroll

Needs to be the full URL like: https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on Twitter App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
@_ppmv
Jun 17 • 15 tweets • 11 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Scrolly
Fortunately I’m a rocket scientist, so here the public health decision every state worldwide now faces, broken down to its essence. Do you want to live with a SARS virus in your much shortened, disease-ridden lives or would you rather not?

That’s the only real question here. Image
2. Previous iterations of this deep insight. I’m not satisfied with “explode” here because while true on an intergenerational scale, explosive typically denotes a process faster than multiple years - as it will take - to most people. Should say “increase.”
3. You’d think whether we want to live with a SARS and smallpox-like virus (monkeypox ~ variola virus) is at the heart of the German national security policy debate #Sicherheitsstrategie? Cute.

In reality, as @RikeFranke argued, German millennials are incredibly bad at strategy.
@RikeFranke Dr. Franke assessment of the pandemic is wrong (sorry—I may have pointed it out previously; just need to add it if I share); otherwise a perceptive, timely 2021 essay. warontherocks.com/2021/05/a-mill… ImageImage
@RikeFranke 4. Crash course for political scientists unfamiliar with SARS/MERS-CoV/OPV/hMPXV pathogenesis. - Read for example China CDC's analysis of expected future genetic recombination in SARS-CoV-2 and I'd add, Mpox.


ImageImage
5. Slightly sharper version of #2 above, explaining mechanisms (=relevant to scientists or all who want to understand why a pathogen behaves as it does).
6. Now is a good time to ruin a fun polemic tweet by overexplaining it. - No, we're here to learn and Germany offers splendid lessons on what NOT to do in a SARS pandemic. To start, to do any worse than Germany over the past 12 months is hard if one tried. Image
7. These are all countries available in the database. Many stopped reporting or are wildly unreliable; can't work with data we don't have. For example Russia must have done worse than Germany over the past 12 months but it's reporting is likely incomplete. Image
8. Please correct if wrong, but I read Germany had 96,077 excess deaths in 343 days = 280 excess deaths *per day* in the past 12 months (19 June 2022 to 28 May 2023). Imagine two Airbus A320s à 140 passengers crashing every day.

Zero journalists noticed. Wild. @berndulrich etc.? Image
I may be terribly mistaken, but so far I'd propose we have a problem here and I don't think it's my middle school math.
9. For another, better graphic, compare the change in excess mortality over the past 12 months (left) with the change between 5 Jan 2020 and 9 April 2023, just before @WHO was forced to end the COVID-19 PHEIC.

WILD. We truly stare into the abyss here and it's looking back at us. ImageImageImage
@WHO 10. Concise by @mayer_iras. I also think this is how too many think. All that has big guns, platforms, and budgets attached to it is serious, hard power. Ideally EM or kinetic. Climate/health stuff are annoying distraction from the job.

I caricature, but.
@WHO @mayer_iras 11. We had 8,096 SARS-CoV-1 infections. Survivors had epigenetic changes 20 years later. Billions of SARS-CoV-2 survivors face the same.

We cannot explain how states came to face disaster unprepared without the hubris of their staff and political leaders.
@WHO @mayer_iras 12. Many criticize WHO, I think as projection. As educational turn, ask your students to advise DG @DrTedros, skilled public health diplomat. What advice should he give G7 world leaders?

We face a dilemma that deserves sustained, global attention. thx all
13. Some elements of solutions we already described in detail (IHR 2005, climate, precautionary principle for both). Others are missing.

Language pros, among others we need a catchier name for the alternative to the PP 👇

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Paul Maidowski

Paul Maidowski Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 17
What were the funniest retweets you got? This by a grifting right wing journalist who doesn’t know what he’s talking about must be my favorite: Image
There has been no public discussion on COVID-Ebola (SARS-CoV-2 / Ebola virus) parallels. That was just one of the many interesting questions never debated while it mattered.
Let's make it the funniest retweets and replies. - Good Sir, before I return to rocket science, I think birds are not real either. Image
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 17
Every cat video gets more likes, but the information we share may help people who learn: ImageImage
This was popular too but twitter search didn’t return it. The big question is whether China’s massive XBB wave, daughter mutation of BA.2, generates a BA.5 BF.7 circulating recombinant form. Chances are good, given hundreds of millions of reinfections.
This is excellent, timely analysis by @RajlabN. The only problem is that China essentially stopped genetic surveillance and sequencing, or at least publishing, so it’s happy dark times in the health data department.
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 16
1. This is extremely funny because Martin was shocked by WHO reporting 1.5 million COVID-19 infections in the last 26 days worldwide. In reality, China alone accounts for 40-65 million infections *per week*.

Check out Germany's updated excess mortality, the highest ever. Stabil. ImageImage
2. We always share links because that's the only way people can check data and learn for themselves, so here goes: ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…
3. Excellent that @MartinStamer you consider Informationskrise as one of the four (three?) major crises. Excellent focus also with Arendt, thanks! Roughly:

A Climate crisis
B Information crisis
C Public health (virus) crisis
D Food crisis, due to (A)
Read 13 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 16
1. Covering the 4Cs: children, climate, complexity, coronaviruses (CoV). As Covid is counterintuitive I share data. Excess mortality is high in every state safe New Zealand, which implemented #ZeroCovid. For solutions read Quarantine law and WHO member states' pandemic playbooks. Image
2. Current excess mortality is fascinating -- Taiwan, Japan, Australia at the same level. Germany nearly half as high as Italy, similar to Hong Kong/Macao, which COULD be indicative of China. India data (?!?) Russia a complete desaster even before the war. ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro… ImageImage
3. China CDC now reports cases only once a month. (Counter western media coverage claiming they stopped reporting?) The reason given is that WHO ended the COVID-19 PHEIC in May. If the West had wanted timely data, they shouldn't have ended it.

Amateurs. chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/zl/sz… ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 15
Details on Germany’s first National Security Policy (NSS). Like Chinese Five-Year-Plans, such documents can indicate intent. Way to go for Germany. Good: climate focus. Bizarre: Germans don’t recognize the circulating pandemic SARS virus and orthopoxvirus (OPV) as security risks.
2. Not saying people need to comment, but IF you want to make a difference on German national security policy. 🤷‍♂️ Germany is in complete denial. Coronaviruses and orthopoxviruses are CLASSICAL biological weapons systems. Literally every expert knows this.
3. That’s why it’s so funny that everyone is pretending they don’t know everyone else is pretending. C’mon on, at least laugh about this great meme if you aren’t going to say anything. Image
Read 11 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 5
1. How many years did SARS-CoV-1 survivors live on average? What were their COD? There were no reinfections. I can’t believe that I must share the question (for free on twitter) for there to be any public discourse; it should be all over the press. You have almost the same virus.
2. Influenza kills when viral load exceeds a threshold and the cell pops like a balloon. Western virologists don’t understand SARS doesn’t behave like this. Patients die in the acute phase from immune system dysfunction of NK/CD8+ cells and cytokine storm.
3. These differential dynamics are important because even today, western virologists use the wrong mental model for SARS. I assume their software packages can’t even model the SARS-CoV replication process. This explains their horrendous errors and deadly policy advice. 🧀🧠
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Send Email!

:(