Kudos to @SZ : the inside story of "Operation Megalomania" - how the Governor of the small state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania tried to rescue and finish #NordStream2 when🇺🇸threatened secondary sanctions. The history of a colossal misjudgement, a🧵 1/
Multiple participants very interviewed, many documents reviewed, but there is still no clear answer how all of this could have happened. @SZ offers two theories: did the state government just "brazenly act on economic self interest?" Or did it "act on behalf of the Kremlin?" /2
There are more questions: why is this a regional, not a national scandal? Why is the ambition to investigate limited? Why no criminal investigation? Why did the federal gov. fail to step in even though cabinet members were skeptical? Why is the governor's career unharmed? /3
To recap: When🇺🇸threatened secondary sanctions, Gov Schwesig decided to circumvent sanctions by creating a foundation, funded by the state (Euro 200 k) and NordStream AG (Euro 20m). Its task was to finish the pipeline while avoiding sanctions when working as a foundation. /4
As a cover up, the foundation supported environmental projects. Its name was "Climate and Environmental Foundation". It clearly violated the spirit of the law on foundations. They enjoy tax privileges because they engage in projects to advance the public good. /5
NordStream AG - and thus Putin's🇷🇺 - were heavily involved in setting up the legal structure and in preparing answers to potentially critical questions. /6
@NordStream2 AG lawyers even offered the state government language to respond to critical questions. Example: "Has @NordStream2 AG bought the state for its own purposes?" /7
Proposed answer: "No. @NordStream2 AG has engaged in multiple environmental projects in the whole Baltic Sea region. This commitment continues here." /8
This story is far from over. Too much smoke for there not to be fire. /9
There are many lessons to draw from this debacle: not least about the power of Russophilia and, at the same time, Anti-Americanism in🇩🇪. It is also a cautionary tale about the unindented consequences of secondary sanctions on allies. /10
NS2 supporters sprang into action to circumvent potential sanctions, even with dubious means. NS2 opponents fell silent because they believed,🇺🇸ought not to use coercive means to influence an allies' behaviour. ("We would like to commit our own mistakes"). Sovereignty matters /11
And it may not be a coincidence that the use of "environmentalism" to hide other motives continues. Chancellor Scholz plans an LNG terminal just miles from where NS2 ended onshore. Gov. Schwesig supported the former and opposes the latter. Why? /12
She opposes the LNG terminal (as does much of the local population) on environmental grounds while she had no environmental concerns about a pipeline gas port in pretty much the same location. Go figure. /13
Well, maybe there is an explanation: the pipeline was supposed to bring 🇷🇺gas, in the LNG port a solid percentage of the gas will come from🇺🇸which will be liquified there. But likely this is just an unjustified insinuation.... END
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Unnoticed by the public+just in time for the🇪🇺🇺🇦 summit, big progress was made last week on🇺🇦reconstruction planning. White smoke: G7 have agreed on governance of donor coordination platform, first meeting was held. Progress report🧵: structure, finances, challenges, agenda 1/
In Dec. 22, the G7 had taken charge of recovery planning after conferences without decisions in Lugano (July 22) and Berlin (Oct. 22). After months of negotiations, agreement on governance was reached earlier in January. First (video) meeting took place on January 26th. 2/
A triumvirate as steering committee for the "🇺🇦Multi-Agency Donor Coordination Platform":
1⃣ 🇺🇸: Mike Pyle, Dep. Nat. Sec. Advisor for Int. Economics
2⃣ 🇺🇦: Serhii Marchenko, Finance Minister
3⃣ 🇪🇺: Gert Jan Koopman (@GertJanEU), Dir Gen DG NEAR
3/
🇬🇪TV founder and opposition-leaning journalist Nika Gvaramia has been sentenced to 3yrs+6mths in jail for using a company car for private purposes. The dubious case, the visit of his wife in🇩🇪,🇬🇪's struggle with media freedom+rule of law while seeking🇪🇺integration: all in a🧵
Sofia Liuashvili, Gvaramia’s wife (see picture), visited @gmfus in Berlin last week to inform us about what is widely seen as a wildly disproportionate sentence in trumped up charges of a blatantly political case. Sofia seeks help from the🇪🇺public to free her husband. 2/
Not just Sofia sees this as a case designed to silence free+liberal media in🇬🇪. On the day of the verdict of the Tbilisi Appeals Court (Dec 2nd, 2022), the U.S.
Embassy protested+the EU Commission raised rule of law concerns about🇬🇪. The🇪🇺Parliament followed suit. 3/
About the🇩🇪🐆wars,🇺🇦FM @DmytroKuleba says this: "First they say no, then they fiercely defend their decision, only to say 'yes' in the end. We're still trying to understand why the🇩🇪government is doing this to itself." Let me try an explanation on grounds of political culture. 🧵
In many countries, governing politicians need to appear strong when it comes to their willingness to defend against a perceived foreign threat. 2/
An 🇺🇸 President will say: "All options are on the table." A 🇩🇪 chancellor will say: "Our path to a solution is diplomacy. But diplomacy also has to work." Essentially, they are saying the same thing, but to different audiences with different political cultures. 3/
Important speech by President #Steinmeier about Putin’s war. He prepares Germans for hard times and an age of confrontation. But the speech is as remarkable for what it mentions as for what it omits. The good, the bad and the ugly - a 13 piece🪵here: bundespraesident.de/SharedDocs/Dow…
2/ Steinmeier does what🇩🇪 leading politicians (exception: Robert Habeck) have avoided doing so far: saying out loud that the tailwinds which🇩🇪has felt since 1990 have been replaced by headwinds. The times of the peace dividend are over. Every citizen will feel it.
3/ This speech was necessary. It prepares citizens for the moment when economic hardship can no longer be compensated by the government. That moment will come soon.
2/ The brand-new, never-yet-heard message was:🇺🇦 needs much more help, and fast. It needs action, not promises. Help to survive to even get to reconstruction. So why did @bundeskanzler need “the world’s best and brightest” to educate him about what he can read in the paper daily?
3/ The optimistic version: @bundeskanzler 🇩🇪 needs a made-for-TV event with a bunch of highly knowledgeable talking heads (that any think tank could have convened) in order to prepare the German taxpayer for a heavy lift.
How we got here: In July, 🇨🇭 hosted the first recovery conference. 🇺🇦 presented its #NationalRecoveryPlan, its Western allies didn't respond with a joint plan. The official #LuganoDeclaration only contains 7 broad principles (partnership, sustainability, ...). [2/12]
Several non-papers exist on how to organize reconstruction from a donor perspective, incl. @EU_Commission "Rebuild Ukraine" platform, an @EBRD non-paper about a 3-level structure + secretariat, an @EIB proposal on a "EU-Ukraine Gateway Trust Fund." [3/12]