#bitcoin chart thread starting with Yearly Candles /1
I've been MIA lately. The current algorithm hasn't been providing the dopamine I got used to. Here's a week of charts in one thread. Let see if the algorithm likes it. If you want me to post more, like and retweet.
bitcoin on this date /2
bitcoin halving candles /3
the bitcoin cycle - It shows the same data as the halving candles but with more detail. /4
bitcoin halving index - how do the cycles compare starting at each halving /5
bitcoin drawdowns - pessimist should stay away, there are only a few days every 4 year that bitcoin hits new all time highs (but they're glorious) /6
Comparing bitcoin cycle drawdowns - this is the linear view you may have seen before but... /7
Comparing bitcoin cycles in log scale - log scale shows that the draw down this cycle wasn't nearly as deep as prior ones but that likely because we didn't get a blow off top /8
bitcoin price vs realized price (average price each coin was last moved) /9
Compare actual to realized (prior chart) gives you MVRV. Amazingly similar each cycle /10
almost certainly a coincidence, the price halfway through the prior 2 cycles was slightly below the halving price 2 years later. Can we get another coincidence? /11
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1/7 #Bitcoin ROI Per Cycle
Bitcoin cycles laugh at "bubble" claims. Post-correction, it's historically still up by hundreds/thousands of percent, ready to do it again.
2/7 The Evolution of #Bitcoin
A quick glance at the growth of Bitcoin from halving epoch to epoch shows a clear pattern. Each epoch so far has maintained a price above the previous one, showcasing remarkable growth cycle over cycle.
3/7 #Bitcoin Drawdowns
Comparing cycle drawdowns and recoveries shows that our current cycle's downturn was shallower, possibly due to the less pronounced peak in 2021. With surging ETF demand, Bitcoin seems on track for new all-time highs pre-4th halving.
When I first discussed #Bitcoin's 4-year cycle, it seemed a mere coincidence to many. There are many ways to compare the cycles but here is an overview to get started. Let's dive in... a thread 🧵👇 1/8
The 'Halving Price' Index shows #Bitcoin's reaction to each halving's supply shock. Global liquidity also influences prices, and with central banks possibly pivoting, the debate on what the primary driver is will likely continue for years to come. 🧵2/8
From bottom to top, the last 2 #Bitcoin cycles had remarkable similarities. While history doesn't predict the future, the current cycle's early trends echo past patterns. No guarantees, but it's a compelling start. 🧵3/8
#bitcoin halving regression - There are many #bitcoin regression curves but what if we excluded the blow off tops and crashes and ran it only on just the 3 halving prices? This is the result.🧵 /1
It follows the lower bound of bitcoins price history surprisingly well. By definition, this type of model will show diminishing returns with an estimated increase of 6x this epoch, 4x next epoch and 3x for the one after that. /2
Dividing the curve by the actual price produces this result showing the peaks are getting less extreme. /3
#bitcoin New ATH Index
I've compared the cycles every way I can think of. This is the only one where the current cycle isn't significantly ahead of the 2017 cycle and it's still very bullish long term.
#bitcoin Cycle Peak Index
The prior chart aligns the break above the prior ATH (red circles).