Thread by @Kpler

Future of Russian Oil: 5 Key Trends

#Russia's oil industry transitions from chaos to relative stability in 2023, with India emerging as the largest seaborne buyer. Let's explore the industry's outlook for the next 2-3 years, from refinery upgrades to a shadow tanker fleet.👇

Russia's refinery upgrades increase gasoline production

Despite overall throughputs not reaching pre-sanction levels, there's a hidden growth story. Jan-April 2023 saw record-high monthly #gasoline production. Dec 2022-Feb 2023 saw the highest-ever production rate of 124 kt/day.

Operational setbacks for refinery upgrades

Nizhny Novgorod refinery faces setbacks due to fire. Moscow, Yaroslavl, Novoshakhtinsk refineries to halt fuel #oil output by 2025-2026, reducing production by 150 kbd. 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 conflict hinders Kirishi refinery's modernization.

Condensate production to increase

Russia's condensate production rises despite natural gas decline. Focus on Western Siberia and greenfield projects. Current production is around 990 kbd. No OPEC+ curtailments are expected for further improvements.

New far east pipelines

Russia's oil infrastructure plans revealed: ESPO pipeline expanded, focus on Asian markets. Increased rail capacity to Kozmino and major capacity boost at Novorossiysk port. Quicker deliveries to India, with winter delays expected in Bosphorus/Dardanelles.

Reallocation of 'shadow tanker' fleet

Shadow fleet sparks speculation on Russian government involvement. Tanker ownership decentralized to evade scrutiny. Moscow's guidelines: expand crude tankers, establish own insurance, minimize Western bank exposure.

#kpler #crude