Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Jun 21 8 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Ukraine is continuing the counterattack in the Melitopol direction. It is the most fortified part of the whole front, with roughly two main defensive lines and multiple secondary layers of defense.

Now we will take a look at the 2nd one of the two main defensive lines. 1/ Image
To give you perspective, in this thread we're examining the fortifications near Mykhailivka. The area is still 25-30km from the frontline, so most likely no fighting will take place here in the near future. 2/ Image
In the first picture we have a part of a nearly 50 kilometre long anti-tank ditch, which runs almost without breaks from the Dnipro river to Tokmak. In the second picture there is a part of the ditch witch surrounds Mykhailivka from all sides expect from the south. 3/ ImageImage
Infantry fighting positions are built between the anti-tank obstacles. Connected to the trench there are dugouts and other relevant components, like room for ammo and equipment. When finished, usually the dugouts and trenches leading to them are covered with a roof. 4/ ImageImage
Behind the trenches and the two anti-tank obstacle lines there are some additional fighting positions and vehicle shelters. 5/ Image
This was only a snapshot of the most fortified area in occupied Ukraine. In the big picture, it's part of a network of fortifications that spans hundreds of kilometres all the way from Crimea to Northern Luhansk. This is a real challenge for AFU, as we have seen already. 6/
Victory in this area will require careful planning and extensive training. "Just shoot it with HIMARS" is not the answer. If it was, Ukraine would not still be struggling in the first line of defense. Even though these fortifications are static and very visible, they work. 7/
Our team at @Black_BirdGroup thanks @wihurinrahasto for giving us funding for our project and making this thread possible.

Our interactive map of the war in Ukraine can be found here. We update it almost daily. 8/8

scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…

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More from @emilkastehelmi

May 22
The Armed Forces of Ukraine crossed the border into Russia and attacked the Grayvoron border station. The attack is conducted by the "Liberty of Russia" Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps. These units are mostly made up of Russian volunteers. 1/ Image
There is still only limited information or geolocatable visual material regarding the operation in the Grayvoron direction. The only thing that's confirmed is that the border station was attacked with multiple vehicles and fire support. 2/
The official Twitter & Telegram accounts of the Legion claim that Kozinka and Gora-Podol are under their control. This would mean the village of Glotovo is too. However, no further evidence has been posted yet. 3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
May 13
Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut area have continued, and geolocated footage confirms that gains have been made. Ukraine has unblocked the Khromove road and is continuing forward. In the south, Russians have been pushed further from Ivanivske. 1/ 🪖 Image
In the Klischiivka area, things are starting to get difficult for the Russians. They still most likely hold parts of the forest southwest of Ivanivske, but the ability to supply it is getting continuously weaker. It is unclear if they have any presence left west of the canal. 2/
If the Ukrainians are able to cross the canal near the supply line, the spearhead lurking in the forest will most likely fall, as the Russians are forced to either retreat or face encirclement. This would mean the last potential threat to the road T0504 would be eliminated. 3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
May 11
Ukraine has begun a series of local counterattacks in the Bakhmut area. First they pushed Russians to the canal in the south, and now they're attacking Russian positions near Bohdanivka and Khromove road. 1/ Image
At the same time, both Russian and Ukrainian channels are reporting intensifying Ukrainian actions in multiple directions. Russian defence ministry says that the "general situation" is under control, which means that local situations might not be under control at all. 2/
Russian MoD also speaks of AFU actions in the direction of Maloilyinovka. Maloilyinovka is located in the northern part of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian gains might be greater than we know at the moment, and there is a possibility of counterattacks also inside the city of Bakhmut. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Apr 23
Hersonin tilannekatsaus 🪖

Useat mediat ovat kertoneet Ukrainan ylittäneen Dnipron ja saavuttaneet joen toisen puolen. Asia on kuitenkin vähemmän dramaattinen kuin uutisoinnista voisi päätellä. Ukrainalaisjoukkoja on mennyt joen yli, mutta mitään sillanpääasemaa ei ole. 1/🧵 Image
Viimeisimpien videotodisteiden mukaan Venäjä on iskenyt seuraaviin kohteisiin Hersonin alueella (punaiset ympyrät). Videoilla ei näy suuria joukkokeskittymiä eikä edes erityisen suurta epäsuoran tulen käyttöä, vaan muutamia iskemiä. Todisteet laajemmasta ylimenosta puuttuvat. 2/ Image
Venäjän ja Ukrainan joukot operoivat Dnipron jokisuistossa jatkuvasti. Kyseessä on tiedusteluryhmien ja erikoisjoukkojen toimintaa, jossa ei lähtökohtaisesti pyritä varsinaiseen alueiden haltuunottoon. Tämä ei ole uutta, sitä on tapahtunut viime vuoden lopulta lähtien. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Apr 21
Heavy fighting on the northern side of Bakhmut. In the Khromove road area, despite constant attacks and shelling, Russians have not made any significant progress for weeks.

Our #OSINT team acquired some satellite images which will explain why the attack has mostly halted. 1/🧵 Image
The main reason for the static situation are the extensive fortifications dug by the Ukrainians. They were well prepared to defend against the Russians, and they have held their positions even under the most difficult conditions, even longer than I initially expected. 2/ Image
The general situation in the area looks like this. There can be some slight errors, as some areas are constantly changing hands. Russians are pushing from all sides, and Ukraine is conducting small-scale counterattacks inside the city and the surrounding areas. 3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Mar 28
Especially 🇩🇪 & 🇺🇸 argued that providing main battle tanks to Ukraine would "escalate the war".

It is disturbing how detached from reality this security analysis was. Russian propaganda and threats practically kept the western tanks out of Ukraine for months. 1/
After the first months it was clear that Russia did not have the capability to seriously escalate the war against western countries, no matter how heavily they would support Ukraine with equipment. Especially a conventional attack could be ruled out. 2/
Despite this, avoiding "escalation" became the main reason why certain weapon systems couldn't be delivered to Ukraine.

Too advanced rocket launchers or anti-air systems would escalate. Infantry fighting vehicles and MBTs would escalate. Fighter jets would escalate. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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