Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Patrick Zweifel Profile picture
@PkZweifel
Jun 21, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
1/5
 After 11 months of collapse, which took our #US housing activity indicator to its lowest point in over 10 years, it has rebounded for the 6th consecutive month, with 10 out of 15 components up, among which housing starts (+22% m/m !), … Image
2/5
 … homebuilders’ sentiment up 5 points, in expansive territory for the first time in 11 months and median new home price to disposable income ratio which fell 15% since its peak, returning to its >20-year average Image
3/5
 One of the implications of the rebound in our activity indicator is that the residential component of GDP should stop contributing negatively to growth as early as Q3, supporting the idea of a soft landing for the US Image
4/5
 Another implication is that house prices have likely bottomed out Image
5/5
 All in all, the US residential market has bottomed out, but the rebound should remain contained, with rates for new mortgages still high and debt servicing still at 26% of median income for the purchase of an existing home Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Patrick Zweifel

Patrick Zweifel Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @PkZweifel

Patrick Zweifel Profile picture
Dec 16
1/
 After 2 months of better activity data in September and October, the gradual recovery continues into November. The main private demand indicators combined with PMI surveys show a recovery in our nowcast GDP growth in Q4 to 8.1% from 2% in Q3 Image
2/
 Industrial production remains solid, growing at an above-average rate of close to 9% over 3-month annualised, above its pre-pandemic trend Image
3/
 For the 3rd month in a row, retail sales volumes rebounded from the disappointing summer months, bringing 3-month growth to over 14% annualized, but keeping the annual variation at less spectacular levels of around 3% Image
Read 6 tweets
Patrick Zweifel Profile picture
Jul 15
1/
 Chinese activity data for June generally came in below expectations and slowed, as did GDP growth, which fell to 4% q/q ann. in Q2 from 6.6% in Q1. Taken together, these 2 quarters still point to growth in line with the Chinese authorities' target of around 5%. Image
2/
 Retail sales volumes contributed to the slowdown, as they contracted in June, leading to a Q2 contraction of 0.9% q/q ann. Image
3/
 That said, total consumer spending, which includes services, continues to be the main driver of Chinese activity, evolving only a few 2% below its pre-pandemic trend, with growth for the quarter of 4.8% ann., albeit decelerating sharply since Q1 (13%). Image
Read 8 tweets
Patrick Zweifel Profile picture
Jul 12
1/
 US Core inflation was much better than expected, down to 3.3% y/y and a m/m rise of 0.8% once annualized, the 2nd consecutive month below 2% and the lowest since May 2020
The decline stems from the continued contraction in goods prices and to a decline in services inflation Image
2/
 The fall in goods prices is explained by a contraction in demand for goods, since retail sales in volume have been declining for 3 years, falling by 3.8% since the April 2021 peak Image
3/
 The fall in services inflation to 5.0% stems from both the continued decline in rental inflation and, for the 2nd month in a row, in services inflation excluding rents, which fell from 5.5% to 4.7% over 6 months on an annualized basis. The best news for the Fed Image
Read 5 tweets
Patrick Zweifel Profile picture
May 31
1/
 A thread on rethinking emerging markets.

Since their introduction as an asset class in 1988, EM equities have outperformed developed markets (10.1% ann. vs 8.9%). But it has been a bumpy ride, with a couple of long cycles in the interim Image
2/
 One of the most salient features of EM in that period was the variability among the asset class’s national equity markets in how they responded to economic factors.

EM outperformance was indeed driven by a very diverse group of 10 countries Image
3/
 EM equity markets are significantly more correlated with each other, including developed market equities, than they are with other asset classes, but … Image
Read 10 tweets
Patrick Zweifel Profile picture
May 15
1/
 US core #inflation came out in line with expectations, down to 3.6% y/y from 3.8%

The decline stems from the continued contraction in goods prices to -1.2% y/y from -0.7%, while services inflation is unchanged at 5.3%. Image
2/
 The fall in the price of goods is justified by demand, since retail sales in volume have been declining for 3 years, falling by an annualized 0.7% since the Nov 2021 peak Image
3/
 Stable inflation at 5.3% is due partly to the continuing fall in rental inflation and partly to the continuing rise in inflation in the non-rent component, which on a 6-month annualized basis stands at 6.5% ... still worrying for the Fed Image
Read 6 tweets
Patrick Zweifel Profile picture
Apr 29
1/
 The latest US activity and inflation data send a stagflationary signal, with GDP slowing to 1.6% q/q ann. from 3.4% in Q4 and slightly below potential for the 1st time in 18 months, and core inflation rising to 3.7% from 2%.
Where do we really stand in the US business cycle? Image
2/
 A more detailed look at GDP gives a more nuanced picture
The decline in growth is indeed largely due to a sharp rise in imports, thus maintaining strong growth in domestic demand at 2.8% q/q ann. in line with the pre-pandemic 6Y average, but decelerating since Q4 (3.5%) Image
3/
 Domestic demand remains underpinned by private demand (consumption + investment) and, in Q1 in particular, by a strong rebound in residential investment from very low levels Image
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(