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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Jun 29 • 13 tweets • 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
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#ExtremeWeather Global outlook thread.

Top line finding the next 16 days shows a significant atmospheric atmospheric wafter vapour / energy increase over the entire Northern Hemisphere indicating conditions for potential extreme weather rainfall events in many places.… https://t.co/NKFYYsmrRNtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This is a new chart which shows accumulating low pressure systems over the Western Pacific - which is growing increasingly active.

Japan seems to be primarily in the firing line as you can see top left.
This is also striking. The Tropical Atlantic energy balance shows a significant upward tick over the 10-16 day period covered in these globlal weather model animations. Here the measure is energy transport energy.
The impact of this in Central and North America is pretty spectacular.
Also in Europe
Here is the European rainfall solution over 16 days via the GFS 1 hour model.
And the North American one. The large circulation in the Tropical Atlantic runs up the US East Coast bringing substantial rain - and likely an unstable atmosphere producing super cells etc.
The El-Nino is measured in the Eastern Pacific and relates to seawater temperature anomaly. When the ocean is cold it suppresses convection amd this leads to less water travelling Westaround the globe as convection in the Pacific is such a large source of the tropical belt's… https://t.co/r8CuYIRLzPtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Here's a close up of the Eastern end of this cycle - off the Pacific coast of the Central American Isthmus. Like the Atlantic it's showing lots of evidence of an early start and a very busy cyclonic seeding ground off the coast of Mexico, similar to last years, but starting… https://t.co/1u8d7bhFGrtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jun 29
In the West Pacific this is the corresponding raw atmospheric energy picture and the current forecast has previously mentioned is pretty dire for Japan which is currently forecast to receive a series of large atmospheric rivers run up the island group.
This is the resulting rainfall result for Japan which is cyclonic in Scale in the South West, the same area hammered by several cyclones last year.
Here's the West Pacific IWVT model result which shows the levels of energy present very starkly like that over the North Atlantic. The simulations do show a pause in the transmission of water westwards which corresponds to the pause in the flow of water vabour which is seen in… https://t.co/BR80AEFxlztwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 15 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jun 24
I’m attending another early summer fete in Tremeur a nearby petit ville. This fete is a RACE!!!





The there are two prizes for fastest and prettiest. Mon Ami Saul Gagne last year. But he’s not in the running for prettiest imo.











Read 29 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jun 24
This exchange between @WilliamsRuto @KGeorgieva @EmmanuelMacron and a fourth person on a global financial tax, and reform of Bretton Woods institutions is very very interesting.
The exchange seems genuine to me. And also astonishing. The Global North South Financial Pact Summit held over the past few days has significantly expanded the Overton Window when it comes to international finance in a truly remarkable manner. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_w…
One of the many extraordinary things about this meeting, beyond the issue of who attended it and what they said (which was remarkable) is the fact that it was live streamed in public to the world.
Read 9 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jun 22
French President @EmmanuelMacron's "Global North South Financial Pact" summit in Paris is now underway.
This is a significant moment in global history as reform of the the Bretton Woods institutions which have defined the post WWII financial order are effectively up for… https://t.co/2XLsJyoyD0twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
@EmmanuelMacron There have been a bunch of excellent publications on the summit in the past few days, however they present a mixed picture and include:
- significant prevarication and caution from the planet's economic super powers r.e. ambition
- this takes the form of rich northern nations not… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
@EmmanuelMacron This however is a bit disingenous imo.

Capitalisation of the World Bank and MDBs to increase their capacity to provide "First Loss Capital" to help leverage and de-risk investment in global south countries is where the rubber meets the road here.

Notably the reports I have… https://t.co/3wO3redfcTtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 8 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jun 21
#FeteDeLaMusique began in 1982 under then minister of culture Jack Lang during the Presidency of Francois Mitterrand.

It is now celebrated all of France in a majority of communes and arrondissements of which there are 36000. I’ve been to several now all of which were all great.
ImageImageImageImage
Read 30 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jun 19
This #ExtremeWeather tweet did not age well.
The very slow moving #Biparjoy continues to advance well inland into Ragastan and remains very much a threat to over land - which was the problem with the (in many ways) similar Pakistan storm in June 2022. Which is ominous and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
L-R Biparjoy (Western India) O3B (Bangladesh) and Guchol are lined up on the same latitude - and this probably explains why.

O3B - the one off the coast of Bangladesh was fairly short lived, but still strong enough to seed significant water vapour into the atmosphere which was… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Meanwhile #CycloneBiparjoy West was still going strong last night - long after it was expected to dissappate, probably due to it being fed by Westerly winds full of water vapour.

This cyclone originated in the same place as the Pakistan cyclone. Which was also powered by… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 17 tweets

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