1/ The bitter feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov appears to have originated in Syria, as an interesting personal account by Prigozhin of the February 2018 Battle of Khasham illustrates. ⬇️
2/ The battle took place when Wagner attempted to seize a US-held oil refinery but was summarily wiped out by American air power. It's been discussed before by a Wagner soldier who was in the battle. Prigozhin explains what happened at higher levels.
3/ Prigozhin claims that the refinery was actually held by ISIS, with "Americans in their ranks" helping them. He says that there were periodic exchanges of fire between ISIS and Wagner, who were aiming to block the US/Kurdish advance into ISIS-held south-eastern Syria.
4/ Prigozhin says he proposed to capture the road leading along the Euphrates from Khsham to the Iraqi border. "On 2 February 2018, I discussed this plan with the Chief of General Staff and then with officers on the ground who were involved in the operation."
5/ "The operation to take control of southeast Syria was planned for the night of 7-8 February, with access to the Conoco plant and further along the road up to the border with Iraq. And once the security zone was established, Syrian army units could be launched from the south."
6/ Prigozhin was confident he had ground superiority over the US and ISIS, but he needed the Russian military to provide "air support and flawless air defences" to protect his ground force.
7/ He says "we were promised that two pairs of SU-35 fighters would be on duty at all times, flying in figures of eights over the Euphrates. So that if enemy aircraft came out, they could attack them and prevent them from hitting the moving infantry.
8/ "It was also promised that all means of air defense would be in operation: S-300, Pantsirs [air defence systems] and other available means of air defence and aviation, which at that time the Wagner PMC did not have."
9/ Prigozhin also says that the Russian MOD promised that they would warn Wagner if there was a threat of any "force majeure".
The operation was launched at 18:00 on 7 February, and at 23:45 the Wagner force attempted to storm the "ISIS" (US) positions.
10/ Then, as Prigozhin relates, the US unleashed the full range of its airpower – drones, attack helicopters, gunships and bombers, which devastated the attacking force and inflicted "a large number of dead and wounded". The attack was abandoned.
11/ Prigozhin says, without explaining why it happened, that he subsequently learned that just as the operation was being launched, Gerasimov ordered the Russian military to stand down, ground its aircraft and turn off the air defence systems.
12/ "According to information that I received from the dispatchers, it was ordered not to inform the Wagner PMC about these measures and subsequently not to contact them in any way."
13/ The Americans had seen Wagner begin advancing from 18:00 and had repeatedly challenged the Russian military to stand them down. When the Russian military disowned the Wagnerites, the US counter-attacked in full force. However, Prigozhin says, Wagner was never informed.
14/ "At 18:00, most of the military commanders left their workplace, went on vacation or even, more accurately, fled.
15/ "And when [Wagner tried to find them] after the shelling started, it turned out that some of them had locked themselves in their wagons, while others had changed their overnight location altogether, so that they could not be reached."
16/ "At 03:00 in the morning we finally managed to break into the RF Armed Forces headquarters to speak to the officer on duty.
17/ "There was a single colonel at the desk, who told us that he would try to resolve the issue so that the shelling would stop and the Wagner PMC fighters could remove the bodies of their slain comrades.
18/ "On 9 February I flew urgently to Moscow and tried to get an appointment with Shoigu to find out what really happened. I wanted to find out why all the agreements had fallen apart and why the tragedy of 8 February had occurred.
19/ "The Minister of Defence refused to receive me. I signed up on the 10th, the 11th and so on ad infinitum, but he had no time to talk to me. Then I caught him at a reception in the Kremlin, where I took advantage of my opportunity.
20/ "I approached him with a request: "Can I discuss with you the situation that occurred on 8 February near Deir ez-Zor?" He turned, calmly and arrogantly replied: “You wanted to be a hero? They were heroic. All the heroes are now here in this hall."
21/ "Here he gestured to those around him in expensive suits – "And you are just confused." That was the end of the conversation."
22/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel adds some additional context which also helps to explain the close relationship between Prigozhin and Russian Air Force chief Sergey Surovikin, who according to the Dossier Center was already an honorary Wagner member.
23/ According to a VChK-OGPU source, Prigozhin's plan of attack at Khsham was "actively lobbied for by Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force Surovikin."
24/ "But on 7 February it became known in the General Staff that this plan was a gamble of the Wagner PMC, aimed at obtaining access to the oil field in the interests of the business team of Gennady Timchenko, which by that time already included both Prigozhin and Surovikin.
25/ (Timchenko is an oil billionaire who was the sixth richest man in Russia as of March 2022. A long-time Putin ally, he has been sanctioned over the invasion of Ukraine. He is also reportedly one of the main backers of the Redut mercenary group, which is fighting in Ukraine.)
26/ According to the source, "Gerasimov was furious that the oligarchs were trying to make the armed forces into a servant of their business interests.
27/ "Surovikin's attempts to change Gerasimov's mind were unsuccessful and the only thing that the head of the armed forces was allowed to do was to allocate two planes to take deceased Wagner members to Russia.
28/ "Nevertheless, to this day, for his services in the Syrian campaign of the Russian Armed Forces, Sergey Surovikin receives dividends from the business projects in Syria of the Stroytransgaz joint stock company, controlled by Gennady Timchenko.
29/ "This passive income scheme is operated by Mikhail Khryapov, a friend of the Surovikin family and a member of the Stroytransgaz board of directors." /end
1/ The City of London bank Peel Hunt has warned investors that Donald Trump "may have lost control" of the Iran war, raising the "real risk of an inflationary recession" globally. Prolonged higher interest rates are forecast to be a significant possibility. ⬇️
2/ The bank has issued a briefing note to investors drafted by its chief economist, @KallumPickering. He writes:
3/ "Donald Trump may have lost control of the situation, which makes a quick (unilateral) resolution harder and increases the risk that the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked even once fighting ends."
1/ The US attempted to send several Iran-bound bombers to an Italian air base without prior authorisation and was refused permission by the Italian government while the aircraft were in flight. The news comes a day after Spain disclosed it was refusing US military overflights. ⬇️
2/ Corriere della Sella and La Republicca report that on Fridary 27 March, the Italian Chief of the Defence Staff, General Luciano Portolano, was informed that several US bombers were inbound to the Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily, controlled by the Italian Air Force.
3/ However, nobody on the US side had requested authorisation or consulted the Italian military leadership. The plan was only communicated to the Italians while the planes were already in flight.
1/ Russians are facing an 'internet tax', reportedly imposed by a secret decree from Vladimir Putin, of 150 rubles ($1.84) for each gigabyte of VPN traffic they use. This is being seen by commentators as a new way of suppressing Telegram's 100 million users in Russia. ⬇️
2/ The BBC Russian Service reports that the FSB has told the Ministry of Digital Development to impose a tax on every gigabyte of VPN traffic after an initial 15 Gb. The FSB wants to discourage Russians from connecting to foreign VPN servers to access resources blocked in Russia.
3/ The tax is due to be put into force by 1 May 2026, despite the opposition of the Ministry of Digital Development and public criticism. It's a stark indication of how the security establishment (the 'siloviki') has become the dominant player in the Russian government.
1/ Recruitment for Russia's drone forces has slumped, despite an intensive recruitment campaign, because potential volunteers fear being forced to become stormtroopers. The situation is so severe that a Russian general has suggested moving drone forces out of the Russian army. ⬇️
2/ Alexey Chadayev, the head of the Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre – a leading Russian drone development organisation – recounts a conversation that he had recently with a Russian lieutenant general about the army's failing UAV pilot recruitment programme:
3/ "Today I had a conversation with a lieutenant general, a longtime acquaintance of mine and, without exaggeration, a senior comrade and mentor. He gave me an idea I'd like to share with the channel.
1/ Without Telegram, which is now fully banned for Russian military use, Russian soldiers in Ukraine are finding it harder – or impossible – to do previously everyday tasks. A brief summary by a Russian signalman highlights specific problems:
2/ "Just to give you a little context, it's worth mentioning that:
Without a little help, I can't:
- download current height matrices for work communications tasks from the ZOV map channel [for an officially approved map app]
3/ "- download current cartographic data for the same purposes
- download a fresh archive of the communications software pack
- get prompt advice on setting up a specific network hardware system for my comrades at the front.
- And I can't do a lot of other work-related things.
1/ Yet more Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia's Baltic oil terminals have prompted angry comments from Russian warbloggers about air defence failures. Interestingly, this is also leading to hitherto unthinkable condemnations of Putin himself. ⬇️
"Regular air raids, and they haven't even deployed mobile task forces to the border to intercept UAVs, and there are no firing positions on site."
3/ "The "system" is working like a rotting brontosaurus. Those fucking guys are already eating their tails, and the "brains" are afraid to show independence...