1/ The bitter feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov appears to have originated in Syria, as an interesting personal account by Prigozhin of the February 2018 Battle of Khasham illustrates. ⬇️
2/ The battle took place when Wagner attempted to seize a US-held oil refinery but was summarily wiped out by American air power. It's been discussed before by a Wagner soldier who was in the battle. Prigozhin explains what happened at higher levels.
3/ Prigozhin claims that the refinery was actually held by ISIS, with "Americans in their ranks" helping them. He says that there were periodic exchanges of fire between ISIS and Wagner, who were aiming to block the US/Kurdish advance into ISIS-held south-eastern Syria.
4/ Prigozhin says he proposed to capture the road leading along the Euphrates from Khsham to the Iraqi border. "On 2 February 2018, I discussed this plan with the Chief of General Staff and then with officers on the ground who were involved in the operation."
5/ "The operation to take control of southeast Syria was planned for the night of 7-8 February, with access to the Conoco plant and further along the road up to the border with Iraq. And once the security zone was established, Syrian army units could be launched from the south."
6/ Prigozhin was confident he had ground superiority over the US and ISIS, but he needed the Russian military to provide "air support and flawless air defences" to protect his ground force.
7/ He says "we were promised that two pairs of SU-35 fighters would be on duty at all times, flying in figures of eights over the Euphrates. So that if enemy aircraft came out, they could attack them and prevent them from hitting the moving infantry.
8/ "It was also promised that all means of air defense would be in operation: S-300, Pantsirs [air defence systems] and other available means of air defence and aviation, which at that time the Wagner PMC did not have."
9/ Prigozhin also says that the Russian MOD promised that they would warn Wagner if there was a threat of any "force majeure".
The operation was launched at 18:00 on 7 February, and at 23:45 the Wagner force attempted to storm the "ISIS" (US) positions.
10/ Then, as Prigozhin relates, the US unleashed the full range of its airpower – drones, attack helicopters, gunships and bombers, which devastated the attacking force and inflicted "a large number of dead and wounded". The attack was abandoned.
11/ Prigozhin says, without explaining why it happened, that he subsequently learned that just as the operation was being launched, Gerasimov ordered the Russian military to stand down, ground its aircraft and turn off the air defence systems.
12/ "According to information that I received from the dispatchers, it was ordered not to inform the Wagner PMC about these measures and subsequently not to contact them in any way."
13/ The Americans had seen Wagner begin advancing from 18:00 and had repeatedly challenged the Russian military to stand them down. When the Russian military disowned the Wagnerites, the US counter-attacked in full force. However, Prigozhin says, Wagner was never informed.
14/ "At 18:00, most of the military commanders left their workplace, went on vacation or even, more accurately, fled.
15/ "And when [Wagner tried to find them] after the shelling started, it turned out that some of them had locked themselves in their wagons, while others had changed their overnight location altogether, so that they could not be reached."
16/ "At 03:00 in the morning we finally managed to break into the RF Armed Forces headquarters to speak to the officer on duty.
17/ "There was a single colonel at the desk, who told us that he would try to resolve the issue so that the shelling would stop and the Wagner PMC fighters could remove the bodies of their slain comrades.
18/ "On 9 February I flew urgently to Moscow and tried to get an appointment with Shoigu to find out what really happened. I wanted to find out why all the agreements had fallen apart and why the tragedy of 8 February had occurred.
19/ "The Minister of Defence refused to receive me. I signed up on the 10th, the 11th and so on ad infinitum, but he had no time to talk to me. Then I caught him at a reception in the Kremlin, where I took advantage of my opportunity.
20/ "I approached him with a request: "Can I discuss with you the situation that occurred on 8 February near Deir ez-Zor?" He turned, calmly and arrogantly replied: “You wanted to be a hero? They were heroic. All the heroes are now here in this hall."
21/ "Here he gestured to those around him in expensive suits – "And you are just confused." That was the end of the conversation."
22/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel adds some additional context which also helps to explain the close relationship between Prigozhin and Russian Air Force chief Sergey Surovikin, who according to the Dossier Center was already an honorary Wagner member.
23/ According to a VChK-OGPU source, Prigozhin's plan of attack at Khsham was "actively lobbied for by Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force Surovikin."
24/ "But on 7 February it became known in the General Staff that this plan was a gamble of the Wagner PMC, aimed at obtaining access to the oil field in the interests of the business team of Gennady Timchenko, which by that time already included both Prigozhin and Surovikin.
25/ (Timchenko is an oil billionaire who was the sixth richest man in Russia as of March 2022. A long-time Putin ally, he has been sanctioned over the invasion of Ukraine. He is also reportedly one of the main backers of the Redut mercenary group, which is fighting in Ukraine.)
26/ According to the source, "Gerasimov was furious that the oligarchs were trying to make the armed forces into a servant of their business interests.
27/ "Surovikin's attempts to change Gerasimov's mind were unsuccessful and the only thing that the head of the armed forces was allowed to do was to allocate two planes to take deceased Wagner members to Russia.
28/ "Nevertheless, to this day, for his services in the Syrian campaign of the Russian Armed Forces, Sergey Surovikin receives dividends from the business projects in Syria of the Stroytransgaz joint stock company, controlled by Gennady Timchenko.
29/ "This passive income scheme is operated by Mikhail Khryapov, a friend of the Surovikin family and a member of the Stroytransgaz board of directors." /end
1/ Why do Russian anti-drone units fail shoot down drones? Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev says they have numerous deficiencies, including bad communications, coordination, training, and drunkenness, that are undermining Russia's drone defences. ⬇️
"You can surround yourself with all sorts of equipment – radars, machine guns, state-of-the-art interceptors – and still miss an incoming aircraft simply because of a problem with the ‘padding between the steering wheel and the seat’.
3/ "– When mobile fire teams are afraid to shoot down drones (what if there's another one after them? What if it crashes somewhere wrong and gets called in?).
– When observers on duty are asleep or even drinking at their posts.
1/ Russian warbloggers are celebrating one piece of collateral damage from yesterday's drone attack in Moscow – a shot-down Ukrainian drone which set the huge Sadovod market on fire. Their comments highlight ingrained Russian anti-immigrant sentiment. ⬇️
2/ Ukraine's attack targeted the oil refinery in Kapotnya, south-east of central Moscow. The surrounding area is heavily polluted and is one of the cheapest areas in Moscow in terms of housing costs. This has encouraged large numbers of immigrants to settle there.
3/ The nearby Sadovod market, established in 1997, is the largest wholesale and retail centre in the whole of Russia, covering an area of more than 40 hectares. It contains around 8,000 shops and attracts over 36 million customers annually, many coming from abroad.
1/ In the aftermath of yesterday's Ukrainian attack on Moscow, many Russian warbloggers are calling for Russia to "start fighting for real" and are blaming the Kremlin for not prosecuting the war with sufficient ferocity. One warblogger explains why this is a fantasy. ⬇️
2/ Roman Yuneman writes:
"In the wake of today's attack on Moscow, I'm again seeing many comments along the lines of "well, are we going to endure this again?", "when are we going to start a real war?", "why are we showing them any mercy?" and so on."
3/ "It's a rather convenient myth that Russia could immediately launch a devastating response, but we're simply not doing so out of nobility or some other notion held by our leadership. This is a half-truth.
1/ How did Ukraine strike Moscow yesterday? A Russian commentary provides a useful overview of the munitions that were used in the attack on the Moscow oil refinery. ⬇️
To strike the Russian capital, the enemy deployed a wide range of long-range fixed-wing UAVs. Ukrainian public groups report that these included, in particular, the AN-196 "Lyutyi," FP-1, "Bars," and "Bobr" drones.
3/ "AN-196 "Lyutyi". A long-range fixed-wing kamikaze drone, developed by the Antonov Design Bureau and manufactured by Ukroboronprom. It is constructed using an integrated twin-boom design with a pusher propeller and a fiberglass body.
1/ Crimea is falling into a critical situation, says Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin, while in the war as a whole, Russia is "very close to the line beyond which lies military defeat". He lambasts the Kremlin for "lethargy" and living in fantasy on the "Planet of the Pink Ponies". ⬇️
2/ Writing to a friend from his jail, Girkin comments on Ukraine's drone offensive:
"– The situation in Crimea. It is grave now, but promises to become critical in just a few weeks if the enemy continues its strategic air offensive against it at an increasing pace.
3/ "Naturally, this is not just a coincidence - the enemy has far-reaching strategic plans in this direction and is preparing to implement them, increasingly disrupting Crimea's communications with Northern Taurida [i.e. the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions]…
1/ Much worse is to come in Moscow, warns Russian warblogger 'Intelligence Diary'. An AI analysis shows that the city is full of strategic targets that Ukraine may try to hit as its drone offensive increases in scale and scope. ⬇️
"Drones have struck the Moscow oil refinery in Kapotnya for the third time since May. The question isn't whether the attacks will continue, but what will happen next."
3/ "Moscow and the surrounding region are the country's largest industrial region. High-tech production facilities are concentrated here, protected by air defences—things Russia can't afford to lose: energy, rocket science, and the defence industry.