1/ The bitter feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov appears to have originated in Syria, as an interesting personal account by Prigozhin of the February 2018 Battle of Khasham illustrates. ⬇️
2/ The battle took place when Wagner attempted to seize a US-held oil refinery but was summarily wiped out by American air power. It's been discussed before by a Wagner soldier who was in the battle. Prigozhin explains what happened at higher levels.
3/ Prigozhin claims that the refinery was actually held by ISIS, with "Americans in their ranks" helping them. He says that there were periodic exchanges of fire between ISIS and Wagner, who were aiming to block the US/Kurdish advance into ISIS-held south-eastern Syria.
4/ Prigozhin says he proposed to capture the road leading along the Euphrates from Khsham to the Iraqi border. "On 2 February 2018, I discussed this plan with the Chief of General Staff and then with officers on the ground who were involved in the operation."
5/ "The operation to take control of southeast Syria was planned for the night of 7-8 February, with access to the Conoco plant and further along the road up to the border with Iraq. And once the security zone was established, Syrian army units could be launched from the south."
6/ Prigozhin was confident he had ground superiority over the US and ISIS, but he needed the Russian military to provide "air support and flawless air defences" to protect his ground force.
7/ He says "we were promised that two pairs of SU-35 fighters would be on duty at all times, flying in figures of eights over the Euphrates. So that if enemy aircraft came out, they could attack them and prevent them from hitting the moving infantry.
8/ "It was also promised that all means of air defense would be in operation: S-300, Pantsirs [air defence systems] and other available means of air defence and aviation, which at that time the Wagner PMC did not have."
9/ Prigozhin also says that the Russian MOD promised that they would warn Wagner if there was a threat of any "force majeure".
The operation was launched at 18:00 on 7 February, and at 23:45 the Wagner force attempted to storm the "ISIS" (US) positions.
10/ Then, as Prigozhin relates, the US unleashed the full range of its airpower – drones, attack helicopters, gunships and bombers, which devastated the attacking force and inflicted "a large number of dead and wounded". The attack was abandoned.
11/ Prigozhin says, without explaining why it happened, that he subsequently learned that just as the operation was being launched, Gerasimov ordered the Russian military to stand down, ground its aircraft and turn off the air defence systems.
12/ "According to information that I received from the dispatchers, it was ordered not to inform the Wagner PMC about these measures and subsequently not to contact them in any way."
13/ The Americans had seen Wagner begin advancing from 18:00 and had repeatedly challenged the Russian military to stand them down. When the Russian military disowned the Wagnerites, the US counter-attacked in full force. However, Prigozhin says, Wagner was never informed.
14/ "At 18:00, most of the military commanders left their workplace, went on vacation or even, more accurately, fled.
15/ "And when [Wagner tried to find them] after the shelling started, it turned out that some of them had locked themselves in their wagons, while others had changed their overnight location altogether, so that they could not be reached."
16/ "At 03:00 in the morning we finally managed to break into the RF Armed Forces headquarters to speak to the officer on duty.
17/ "There was a single colonel at the desk, who told us that he would try to resolve the issue so that the shelling would stop and the Wagner PMC fighters could remove the bodies of their slain comrades.
18/ "On 9 February I flew urgently to Moscow and tried to get an appointment with Shoigu to find out what really happened. I wanted to find out why all the agreements had fallen apart and why the tragedy of 8 February had occurred.
19/ "The Minister of Defence refused to receive me. I signed up on the 10th, the 11th and so on ad infinitum, but he had no time to talk to me. Then I caught him at a reception in the Kremlin, where I took advantage of my opportunity.
20/ "I approached him with a request: "Can I discuss with you the situation that occurred on 8 February near Deir ez-Zor?" He turned, calmly and arrogantly replied: “You wanted to be a hero? They were heroic. All the heroes are now here in this hall."
21/ "Here he gestured to those around him in expensive suits – "And you are just confused." That was the end of the conversation."
22/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel adds some additional context which also helps to explain the close relationship between Prigozhin and Russian Air Force chief Sergey Surovikin, who according to the Dossier Center was already an honorary Wagner member.
23/ According to a VChK-OGPU source, Prigozhin's plan of attack at Khsham was "actively lobbied for by Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force Surovikin."
24/ "But on 7 February it became known in the General Staff that this plan was a gamble of the Wagner PMC, aimed at obtaining access to the oil field in the interests of the business team of Gennady Timchenko, which by that time already included both Prigozhin and Surovikin.
25/ (Timchenko is an oil billionaire who was the sixth richest man in Russia as of March 2022. A long-time Putin ally, he has been sanctioned over the invasion of Ukraine. He is also reportedly one of the main backers of the Redut mercenary group, which is fighting in Ukraine.)
26/ According to the source, "Gerasimov was furious that the oligarchs were trying to make the armed forces into a servant of their business interests.
27/ "Surovikin's attempts to change Gerasimov's mind were unsuccessful and the only thing that the head of the armed forces was allowed to do was to allocate two planes to take deceased Wagner members to Russia.
28/ "Nevertheless, to this day, for his services in the Syrian campaign of the Russian Armed Forces, Sergey Surovikin receives dividends from the business projects in Syria of the Stroytransgaz joint stock company, controlled by Gennady Timchenko.
29/ "This passive income scheme is operated by Mikhail Khryapov, a friend of the Surovikin family and a member of the Stroytransgaz board of directors." /end
1/ Russian soldiers are reportedly being punished by being sent into assaults with anti-tank mines strapped to their bodies, made to dig their own graves for complaining, and risk death delivering New Year's Eve alcohol and caviar for their commanders.
2/ Andrei Vladimirovich Shekhovtsev, a member of the Russian 60th Separate motorised rifle brigade (military unit 16871), says that his commanders are systematically abusing, extorting and killing the men under their command.
3/ He says that his evacuation group was ordered on the night of 1 January 2026 to deliver alcohol and red caviar to a command position for a celebration. He refused, citing the danger of Ukrainian attacks. The order was reissued to some Russian drone operators instead.
1/ A Russian general notorious for his incompetence is said to have been in charge of providing military advice to the former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. Russian warbloggers complain that failing generals are often sent abroad, to the detriment of their hosts. ⬇️
2/ Roman Saponkov writes that "it turns out that General [Oleg Leontyevich] Makarevich was an advisor in Venezuela at the time of the US operation."
3/ "If anyone didn't know, he's another one of our generals who turned out to be so incompetent that he was k̶i̶c̶k̶e̶d̶ ̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶b̶r̶o̶t̶h̶e̶l̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶w̶h̶o̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ removed from command in the Armed Forces.
1/ Donald Trump should be assassinated and US ships sunk in revenge for the US seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker, say angry Russian warbloggers. Others worry that the episode shows Russia's weakness and inability to protect its own interests, just like in Venezuela. ⬇️
2/ 'Hard Blog' and others say that Russia needs to be ready to go to war, as mere words won't be a sufficient response to such a serious provocation:
3/ "The US has shifted from covert operations to demonstrations of force and provocations, seeking confrontation with us and China. When you've invested so much in the armed forces, what's the point of keeping them on a leash?
1/ False claims by Russian commanders to have captured Ukrainian towns and villages – a practice known as 'taking on credit' – have likely cost thousands of Russian lives through 2025. A Russian commentary highlights some of the most egregious claims. ⬇️
2/ The map above, published on the Russian Ministry of Defence's Telegram channel, claims control of settlements near Kupyansk that were never in Russian hands. Similar official maps show the Russian front line kilometres ahead of where independent observers place it.
3/ As discussed in the thread below, Russian commanders have many personal incentives to falsely claim captures. The result is that soldiers are often sent without support to (re)capture settlements that are already claimed to be under Russian control.
1/ Could Russia's special forces have carried out America's Venezuela operation? Almost certainly not, admit Russian warbloggers, as they say that the US SOF have capabilities, scale, a level of organisation, and effective management that their Russian equivalents lack. ⬇️
2/ The spectacular success of the US special forces in capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has led to some sober reappraisals among Russian warbloggers of the relative effectiveness of Russian and American special forces.
3/ 'Special-purpose channel' comments that the Venezuelan operation was "aimed at one specific target. This wasn't part of a large-scale invasion, but rather, our favourite 'in and out' strategy."
1/ Elon Musk faces a spiralling worldwide crisis and growing legal jeopardy over child pornography and nonconsensual sexual images being generated through his Grok AI chatbot. Multiple countries and jurisdictions have now announced investigations into X and xAI. ⬇️
2/ As reported by Reuters, many thousands of AI-generated sexual images have appeared on X over the Christmas and New Year period. They include images of real women being digitally undressed, repositioned in sexual poses, and covered in simulated semen ('donut glaze').
3/ The images created through Grok by X users have also reportedly included sexualised images of pre-teen children as young as four years old.