Thread by @emilkastehelmi

Recent developments suggest that something interesting is happening near Bakhmut.

During the last month, Ukraine has continued to slowly push Russian troops out of multiple areas. I wouldn't call this a second battle of Bakhmut yet, but Ukraine is definitely on the offensive. 1/

This week, Ukraine finally cleared the last Russian positions from western side of the Donets-Donbas canal.

This operation has been ongoing since May, and it’s now complete. On top of that, the 3rd Assault Brigade has already been observed to make gains on the eastern side. 2/

The next likely direction near the canal could be Kurdiymivka and Ozarianivka, where a couple of crossings could be exploited. Liberating these villages and continuing north would help the offensive at Klischiivka, advancing west enables further objectives. 3/

The situation in Klischiivka is also getting difficult for the Russians. It seems they’re only holding one larger fortification and some smaller positions on the tactically important highground. If it’s lost, the situation in the village quickly becomes unpleasant. 4/

Capturing the area around Klischiivka is excellent for future defensive operations.

However, it gives only limited benefits from an offensive point of view. The next goal could be the southern road T0513 to Bakhmut, but reaching it wouldn’t give any great advantages either. 5/

Liberating the whole city is a bigger issue. An encirclement could be an option, as Ukraine likely doesn't want to try taking the city block by block. One of the main problems is that Ukraine must advance deep into the rear to cut or even seriously threaten Russian logistics. 6/

Some Russian sources have reported that Ukraine already has a foothold in the westernmost parts of the city. There is no proof of this yet, but it at least shows that the Russians seem to be somewhat alarmed of the situation. 7/

Future will tell, if the Ukrainians are just trying to gain better defensive positions or are they actually trying to liberate larger amounts of ground. At the moment the latter seems an uncertain, but possible option. The main focus can switch from south to east. 8/

Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine wants to show results in the battlefield soon. The offensive in the Bakhmut area can also be deception, where they try to pull more Russian reserves into a certain area. A heavier attack can occur somewhere else. 9/

pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…

Even though the counteroffensive is slow in the south, Ukraine still has a lot of forces and equipment left. Many scenarios are possible.

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup keeps monitoring the situation. Our interactive map can be found here. 10/10

scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…