Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jul 16, 2023 24 tweets 9 min read Read on X
China is preparing for war.

Everyone should watch @Jkylebass' presentation at the @HudsonInstitute, where he connects the dots—between the military, policy, infrastructure, & markets—that point in one direction:

#China is mobilizing for war with 🇺🇸

Key highlights & takeaways👇
Kyle's presentation includes 3 sections:

1. Military force readiness & preparation
2. Changes to the legal system & infrastructure
3. Financial market movements & wartime planning

"This topic is central & vital to the national security of our nation & what we're facing today." Image
"There are three simulations that have to take place before Xi & the CMC will authorize a strike on Taiwan."

- Operation Joint Fire-Strike (August 2022)
- Operation Joint Sword (April 2023)
- Amphibious Assault (TBD)

👀 2 of the 3 invasion simulations occurred in the past year. Image
"The first was a 10-day exercise after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. The Chinese launched 11 ballistic missiles to simulate the neutralization of Taiwan's air defense systems."

China ominously changed legal policy to allow troops & "administrators" to be sent to Taiwan if conquered.
The second exercise "stressed speed & agility," & was designed with 2 phases of attack:

- Immediate deployment of forces
- Rapid seizure of all domains to gain control of air, sea, & information to "gain an extremely advantageous position at the outset."

Xi learned from Putin.
"What China has learned from Putin's mistakes in Ukraine is #1 Xi knows that he can't telegraph the move. Putin did a lot of things to telegraph when his invasion was happening. We don't believe Xi will do that. The 2nd is battlefield control & domains for control are vital." Image
The third & final readiness exercise will simulate an amphibious assault.

Naval experts believe there are 3 months when an invasion is possible: April, May, & August.

Once an amphibious simulation has been achieved, Xi will be ready at any time to give the go-no-go signal.
Kyle presents detailed timelines showing Chinese mainland preparations for war, including fundamental changes to:

- The legal system & policy
- Physical structures
- Power systems

Beijing can now nationalize foreign companies, seize corporate assets, & detain expat employees.
China is quietly building infrastructure to support cross-strait military operations:

- Built 18 new air raid shelters directly across from Taiwan
- Standing up the world's largest combat hospital nearby
- Running emergency drills to handle massive power outages

I wonder why 🤔
Kyle closely follows what Xi says (that the press often misses) & "the methodical thought process of the CCP."

"What would change the Biden admin's tact to want us to—or force us to—instill crippling sanctions? In my view, it would only be a militaristic move on Taiwan."
Xi's rhetoric is "becoming more bellicose. Every speech he's given since 2017, he tells you what he's going to do. And it's just getting worse and worse and worse."

"In all three speeches, Xi told the people of China to prepare for war."
"The 3rd bucket is my primary expertise: What would China be doing to insulate themselves from severe financial sanctions?"

- Financial markets
- Changes in data policies
- International bond defaults
- Corporate raids of U.S. businesses
- Wartime planning for natural resources Image
"If Xi were planning for war, you'd expect him to take what assets the sovereign has in direct accounts with the U. S. & start whittling them down or trying to sanction proof those."

"We will be able to execute much more crippling sanctions in the event China invades Taiwan."
"Access to all data was just severed. We all know their economy is really struggling right now. The last thing Xi wants is the Western press to keep writing about how much trouble their economy is in.

So you know what? They just cut the data feed."
"If you were China & you were about to prepare for war... you would just say, you know what, I'm not going to pay those dollars back.

65% of the dollar-based bonds of all the property developers in China are in default offshore."

Onshore, it's a bit different: 21% default.
"The Chinese raided these firms, took all of the computers, & detained employees. If you were trying to develop or continue a system that attracts dollars & attracts corporate interests, this is something you would never do. They are scaring the lights out of U. S. companies."
"It sure looks to me that they are trying to secure all of their energy commitments."

Chinese local governments permitted 100+ large coal-fired power plants—the most since 2015 & 4x over 2021. The combined capacity of coal was 6x as large as all the rest of the world combined.
"In May of 2023, China's coal imports hit 360 to 380 million tons.  That compares with 290 million tons the year before & an all time record in 2013 of 327 million tons. They are going back to the dirtiest, cheapest potential fuel."
"China is 20% of the world's population, & they're hoarding almost 70% of the world's grain today.

Why would you need to have a wheat stockpile that lasts a year & a half in China? Maybe you're holding them for something even larger—that's an even larger problem."
"The number of Chinese ICBM launchers reported by the Pentagon went from 100 missile silos & launchers in 2020 to 450 by October of last year. They had 100 in their entire country in 2020. They have taken that number & increased it by 350% in 18 months. Why would they do that?"
"If you listen to Xi, & you read what he says, he's telling you where he's going, he's telling you what he's doing. And he's making every preparation that I would make if I were running China & I knew I was going to invade Taiwan."
"Do I know that he's going to do it? I don't. But I actually take him at his word. I think it's highly likely that he invades Taiwan.

Looking at all of the writing on what I call the Great Wall, it sure looks like it's headed all in one direction."

Full speech @HudsonInstitute:
@HudsonInstitute Chinese military exercises currently underway look a lot like the amphibious simulation Kyle mentions above (but still too early to tell):
@HudsonInstitute Update from @Jkylebass:

“April, May, & August provide the best tidal & weather windows to achieve a full invasion. In a record-breaking weekend of Chinese ships sailing at Taiwan 🇹🇼, Xi’s ratchet turns only one way….tighter & tighter until the invasion happens.” #August #China

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More from @ianellisjones

Apr 3
During exercise Strait Thunder-2025A, the Chinese PLA released several maps and visuals of Taiwan, some marked with target icons and depicting key locations burning and under attack.

Quick compilation (and more info below):
Here’s everything that happened (as it was happening):
Read 4 tweets
Apr 1
BREAKING: China launches joint military exercises around Taiwan, practicing a “blockade on key areas”

On 1 April, PLA Eastern Theater Command deployed Army, Navy, Air Force, & Rocket Forces to “close in on Taiwan from multiple directions.”

- Sea-air combat readiness patrols
- Joint seizure of comprehensive superiority
- Assault on maritime & ground targets
- Blockade on key areas & sea areas

“It is a stern warning & forceful deterrence against ‘Taiwan Independence’ separatist forces.”

The PLA released a theme poster called “Closing In: Sinister Moves of Taiwan Separatists Courting Disaster Upon Themselves.”
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command began conducting joint military exercises around Taiwan on Tuesday, 1 April 2025, according to an announcement by Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesperson for the theater command. Image
Image
Image
Why is China doing this now and what are these exercises designed to do? @WarintheFuture explains:
Read 13 tweets
Mar 30
Six USAF B-2 Spirit stealth bombers — 1/3 of America’s fleet — forward deployed to Diego Garcia over the last week 🇺🇸

The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (CSG) continues strike operations against the Houthi. Carl Vinson CSG, en route to the Middle East, is 1-2 weeks out. Image
A comprehensive review of U.S. strike operations against the Iran-backed Houthi in Yemen, which began on 15 March and continued every day since:
A detailed thread by @TheIntelFrog tracking the deployments and air activity:
Read 8 tweets
Mar 28
🚨 Unclassified Report — Inside America’s 14-day ongoing strike campaign against the Houthi

At least 158 precision air and naval strikes targeting Houthi infrastructure & leadership.

My most detailed brief ever and an unprecedented look at U.S. strike operations in Yemen: Image
On Saturday, 15 March 2025, just before 11:44 EST, U.S. SECDEF confirmed with U.S. Central Command: “We are a go for mission launch,” initiating a series of precision strikes against 30+ Iranian-backed Houthi targets across Yemen, including a “target terrorist @ his known location.”
Strike operations, led by the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (HSTCSG) in coordination with the U.S. Air Force, have continued every day since (now on Day 14).
Read 8 tweets
Mar 24
Notable developments in the Indo-Pacific last week:

- China conducted back-to-back joint combat patrols 24nm from Taiwan on the same day for the first time
- 59 PLA aircraft detected around Taiwan + 43 entered its ADIZ on Monday, largest single-day surge of 2025 + highest in 5 months
- Recent PLA military drills in the Taiwan Strait, Western Pacific, South China Sea, East China Sea, + Yellow/Bohai Sea
- New Shuiqiao landing barges carrying out docking trials with civil-military RO-RO ferries
- Elevated PLA drone activity, including WZ-10 + GJ-2

Taiwan recently wrapped up a week of “Rapid Response Exercises,” practicing tactical maneuvers, key asset protection, concealment, and cover operations to enhance readiness and response capabilities. MND said: “ROC Armed Forces closely monitor maritime and aerial activities, conducting joint operations to track and respond to PLA incursions.”

China’s foreign ministry stated: “China’s relevant military operation is necessary, lawful and legitimate in order to defend national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity. It’s a firm response to external forces who are hellbent on abetting and aiding ‘Taiwan independence,’ and a warning to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces’ unconscionable acts... Those who attempt to use Taiwan to contain China will get burned for playing with fire.”

More info and sources below:Image
Review of Chinese PLA military activity 2025 year-to-date:
On 17 March, Taiwan detected 59 PLA aircraft around the island, and 43 crossed into its Air Defense ID Zone (ADIZ) — the largest single-day surge of 2025 and highest in 5 months.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 21
“...this newest logistics capability is further evidence of the PLA’s efforts to meet Chairman Xi Jinping’s reported mandate to have military capabilities necessary to conduct a large-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2027.” @tshugart3 @ChinaMaritime Image
“The new Shuiqiao LPUs offer the PLA a critical capability and fulfill a long-sought requirement to reliably deliver a large volume of second echelon forces into amphibious landing areas. In the context of other developments that include improvements to amphibious base infrastructure, the increased use of a diverse array of civilian vessels to support amphibious operations, and other PLA capability developments, the Shuiqiao LPUs are another example of the PLA significantly increasing capabilities to conduct a large-scale cross-strait operation—if they are ordered to do so—in coming years.”
May already be testing the new landing barges with a “civilian” PLA-associated roll-on, roll-off (RO-RO) ferry:
Read 4 tweets

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