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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
@_ppmv
Jul 19 • 8 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
No, SARS is no extinction level event. Humans lived with rampant bovine coronaviruses outbreaks previously thanks to unpasteurized milk. They just had low life expectancy and many children.

The positive feedbacks on other pathogens and risks are the problem.
Increase the incidence of 9,000 Covid deaths per day by 50% to 200%, to 13,700 to 27,400 excess deaths per day. Most SARS deaths occurred 10-15 years after infection, so that’s ‘moderate’. You get 5 to 10 million excess deaths per year. Still only 1 billion excess deaths in 2123.
SARS is not irrelevant, in fact impressive. By any comparison these is incredible (in this hypothetical example) because an influenza pandemic like 1918 WOULD generate herd immunity. Coronaviruses don’t. But compare climate: that’s multiple times larger.
Background
“SARS is no extinction level event” might lose you some of the hyperbolic right wing figures on social media sketching unhinged futures of near term mass death. - It doesn’t mean there won’t be mass disability and unprecedented, well, mass death however.
Here Pfizer confirms what we have been saying for years. Excellent blog/thread, make sure you understand all of it.
There’s also this. - No that any journalist, think tank or public figure would have noticed. Amateurs.
December 2021. We knew all along that SARS can persist for months after infection. I shared the 18 year sequelae study on SARS 2003 survivors (so we know not “everyone dies”, as the unhinged will tell you). The question is what happens with reinfections.

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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 29
1. One disastrous claim was that SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) could become 'mild'. Wishful thinking since no mechanism was ever given how. This motivated all "Living with Covid" + "Infect all children" policy. @fitterhappierAJ etc. - we all - protested. Let's see biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
@fitterhappierAJ 2. The kind @NateB_Panic reminds me to share: I think we see a profound misunderstanding. Recall the second popular, bizarre claim: Somehow we cannot eliminate (local) or eradicate (global) SARS-CoV-2 even though we eradicated its predecessor -1 without most people ever noticing.
@fitterhappierAJ @NateB_Panic 3. Allegedly, we can't eradicate SARS-CoV-2 because it's spilling over into animal populations, from human coronavirus (HCoV) to CoV. Yet the opposite is thinkable. - We will agree infecting billions of children and adults every year is the worst we can do—the virus adapts to us.





Read 7 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 17
Fortunately I’m a rocket scientist, so here the public health decision every state worldwide now faces, broken down to its essence. Do you want to live with a SARS virus in your much shortened, disease-ridden lives or would you rather not?

That’s the only real question here. Image
2. Previous iterations of this deep insight. I’m not satisfied with “explode” here because while true on an intergenerational scale, explosive typically denotes a process faster than multiple years - as it will take - to most people. Should say “increase.”
3. You’d think whether we want to live with a SARS and smallpox-like virus (monkeypox ~ variola virus) is at the heart of the German national security policy debate #Sicherheitsstrategie? Cute.

In reality, as @RikeFranke argued, German millennials are incredibly bad at strategy.
Read 15 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 17
What were the funniest retweets you got? This by a grifting right wing journalist who doesn’t know what he’s talking about must be my favorite: Image
There has been no public discussion on COVID-Ebola (SARS-CoV-2 / Ebola virus) parallels. That was just one of the many interesting questions never debated while it mattered.
Let's make it the funniest retweets and replies. - Good Sir, before I return to rocket science, I think birds are not real either. Image
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 17
Every cat video gets more likes, but the information we share may help people who learn: ImageImage
This was popular too but twitter search didn’t return it. The big question is whether China’s massive XBB wave, daughter mutation of BA.2, generates a BA.5 BF.7 circulating recombinant form. Chances are good, given hundreds of millions of reinfections.
This is excellent, timely analysis by @RajlabN. The only problem is that China essentially stopped genetic surveillance and sequencing, or at least publishing, so it’s happy dark times in the health data department.
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 16
1. This is extremely funny because Martin was shocked by WHO reporting 1.5 million COVID-19 infections in the last 26 days worldwide. In reality, China alone accounts for 40-65 million infections *per week*.

Check out Germany's updated excess mortality, the highest ever. Stabil. ImageImage
2. We always share links because that's the only way people can check data and learn for themselves, so here goes: ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…
3. Excellent that @MartinStamer you consider Informationskrise as one of the four (three?) major crises. Excellent focus also with Arendt, thanks! Roughly:

A Climate crisis
B Information crisis
C Public health (virus) crisis
D Food crisis, due to (A)
Read 13 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 16
1. Covering the 4Cs: children, climate, complexity, coronaviruses (CoV). As Covid is counterintuitive I share data. Excess mortality is high in every state safe New Zealand, which implemented #ZeroCovid. For solutions read Quarantine law and WHO member states' pandemic playbooks. Image
2. Current excess mortality is fascinating -- Taiwan, Japan, Australia at the same level. Germany nearly half as high as Italy, similar to Hong Kong/Macao, which COULD be indicative of China. India data (?!?) Russia a complete desaster even before the war. ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro… ImageImage
3. China CDC now reports cases only once a month. (Counter western media coverage claiming they stopped reporting?) The reason given is that WHO ended the COVID-19 PHEIC in May. If the West had wanted timely data, they shouldn't have ended it.

Amateurs. chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/zl/sz… ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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