Since the start of the Russia invasion, I believed Ukraine would persevere. That hasn’t changed, though the battlefield conditions have.
Recently, many have reported “slow movement,” “stumbling,” “lack of success,” of UAF, from those unfamiliar with operational details. 1/
By “operational details,” I mean conditions of the battlefield…those things that affect gaining ground or achieving success by a force.
Often times in combat, units take 3 steps forward, 2 back.
I know this from personal experience. 2/
“Operational details” also describes the synchronization of soldiers, equipment, the terrain, the leadership.
Putting x equipment (new or old) with y soldiers (rookie or experienced) under z leaders (great or good) on any given terrain will result in different outcomes. 3/
Oh…and the enemy always gets a vote.
There are no magic potions - units, equipment, leaders, conditions - that guarantee success.
Only the commander in his command post - in this case Gen Zaluznhyi - can accurately assess these things. 4/
Luck, adaptability, recent “scar tissue” & learning will also play a part in operational & tactical movement.
Example: a bit of luck, the massing of forces on the right terrain, a “snap” decision on the part of 1 risk-taking leader, can turn a slow advance into a breakthru. 5/
And BTW, these things may happen to RU forces, too (though I believe that’s less likely).
IMHO, the UAF are experiencing exactly what any soldier who understands this kind of combat would have predicted.
The tempo isn’t slow or fast…it is what it usually is in combat. 6/
WRT the F16 announcement this weekend, that’s more commitment to long-term support of Ukraine than it is of contributions to the current fight.
This summer, both Netherlands & Denmark recently had F16s available due to arrival of F35s this summer. 7/
The @KyivPost had a very optimistic but also realistic view of these aircraft (I take issue w some of the assertions, but bottom line these planes won’t contribute to success in the current stage). “Winning” in the future is correct. 8/
Woke up to several texts from journalists asking my thoughts on "West Point dropping duty, honor, country from their motto?" and one wrote "does this mean the Academy has gone 'woke'?"
My first thought: "let me get a cup of coffee before addressing this craziness."
A 🧵 1/9
This week, graduates received a letter from LTG Steve Gilland -the Superintendent (the USMA college president)- of @WestPoint_USMA informing of changes in the MISSION STATEMENT (NOT the motto).
The letter specifically said the MOTTO "Duty, Honor, Country" has NOT changed. 2/
Now, I know LTG Gilland well. He's a great soldier, terrific leader, and a common-sense guy.
As any leader - general or business CEO - knows, you have to continuously assess and analyze your mission statement.
In fact, I teach this to MBA students in leadership classes. 3/
Many of you have heard me say this multiple times with respect to the war in Ukraine.
Now we'll start seeing the same in Gaza with JLTOTS pronounced "Jay-Lots" for the media).
A 🧵 1/9
"Logistics determine the art of the possible."
Many of you have heard me say this multiple times with respect to the war in Ukraine.
Now we'll start seeing the same in Gaza with JLTOTS pronounced "Jay-Lots" for the media).
A 🧵 1/9
Airdropped humanitarian aid is precise and speedy, but it's limited in it's capability and capacity for certain kinds and large amounts of supplies. It's also relatively expensive.After you deploy expensive parachutes and GPS devices into the area, it's hard to get them back! 3/
On 24 Feb 2022, I scribbled some thoughts about what I believed were Putin's strategic objectives in invading Ukraine (see chart).
In the 1st 18 months of the conflict, Ukraines' action, NATO collaboration & US support caused him to fail.
We're at an inflection point. A 🧵1/
Addressing each: 1. Zelenskyy is still strong 2. Ukraine's army is still fighting 3. Ukraine's population is resilient 4. Ru does not control the Black sea ports 5. The west - especially the US - has returned to being divided, and NATO may now take fewer risks. 2/
Putin now knows that Ukraine's continued capability will - for the short term - continue to require support from the west.
So he is pulling out all stops, w/ mobilizations (over 400k new (untrained) soldiers as "meat" for attacks), a ramped up industrial base, & oppression. 3/
GEN Zaluzhnyi is 51 y.o., extremely young for a Commander of any nation's Armed Forces. Most 4-star generals are in their 60's with much more experience.
Since Feb '22 he's been the tactical, opn'l & strategic leader of the toughest fight we've seen in the 21st century. 2/
Here's what I mean by "tactical, opn'l, strategic" commander:
1. He commands the 2000+ mile tactical front 2. He coordinates each battles into an operational campaign plan 3. He "plays" in the strategic arena with his nation's leaders & over 50 supporting nations. 3/
Deterrence defined: The action or actions used to discourage an event by means of instilling doubt or fear of the consequences over time.
Many say deterrence against Iran & its proxies is failing.
It's too early to tell. 1/8
DETERRENCE is one technique that MAY contribute to national security strategy.
Some define strategy as the use of different MEANS in specific WAYS to reach on END STATE or OBJECTIVE.
I agree with that definition...and it's sorta like deterrence. 2/
In National Security Strategy, MEANS equates to difference tools at the nation's disposal (diplomancy, information, economics, military). WAYS is the approach you use to make those tools effective (think maneuver with military, economic sanctions, condemning actions, etc). 3/