Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 23, 2023 14 tweets 8 min read Read on X
I've been getting some...interesting...reactions to my S-200 threads here on X/Twitter, particularly in some of the spaces I frequent.

Notably, when I'm not present.🙄🤡

It isn't that hard to find good sources on the internet for the S-200/SA-5 Gammon.

A DAFS 🧵
1/
Or good, if dated, information on the Ukrainian SAM networks locations and weapons.

2/
geimint.blogspot.com/2009/07/ukrain…
This Forbes piece seems to be what is setting the yo-yo's off.

Who would have thunk it.🤣🤣🤣

For some reason, some people on X/Twitter have real mental blocks about doing a flipping search and READING.🤯

3/
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
When the Soviet Union fell apart, a lot of ex-Soviet military folks were selling the manuals for every surface to air missile in the Soviet arsenal for whatever they could get.

Information from them are found in a lot of places online. For instance:⬇️

4/
ausairpower.net/APA-S-200VE-Ve…

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And this as well:

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ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-SAM-Si…



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There is also pretty darned good material in Russian available now that translation software is an app in most internet browsers.

This was not quite as technically up to date, but it had lots on the S-200 warhead which wasn't in the APA articles.

6/
pvo.guns.ru/s200/index.htm
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Now, there are more recent (and much worse) Russian language articles on the S-200.

This one in particular has some...odd...assumptions about rigging a 5V28 to fly a ballistic or semi-ballistic trajectory for 450-600 km range.

7/
zvezdaweekly.ru/news/202381151…

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Albeit that it has this S-200 missile impact crater from Belgorod Russia complete with the black residue of burning hypergolic fuel in the soil of the crater.

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The profile for the 5V21/28 engaging a high flying distant target is a steep climb to ~80K feet, horizontal cruise until close enough to the target, then a shallow dive to impact.

The 5V28 has the same wing surfaces as a AIM-54 Phoenix because it flies the same trajectory.

9/
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The 2018 movie FIRST MAN has a wonderful segment where the X-15 tumbles on atmospheric reentry

That segment was a good illustration of the challenges creating flight controls customised for reentry so, for instance, a S-200/5V28 missile conversion does not tumble on descent
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The 5V28 missiles Ukraine has in storage are honking big puppies that have a whole lot of room to become what Air Power Australia (APA) liked to call a "digitised stone axe."

That is, the repurposing large stocks of obsolete SAMs by insertion of modern digital technology.

11/
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Thinking like that is against the US Department of Defense procurement 'secular religious catechism' of:

"If it isn't new, it's obsolete."

Ukraine could not afford such waste & pursued this "digitised stone axe" option with the S-125-2D.

12/
facebook.com/zbroya.ua/post…
But there simply wasn't enough money for more than a battery of S-125-2D.

Given both the failed development of the Grom-2/Hrim-2, and the existential war for existence Ukraine find itself in, porting existing guidance technology to the 5V28 is a no brainer.

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Unless you are a senior US DoD procurement official, or a senior US National Security intelligence official playing the political-patronage expectations game, while talking to the media.

There are phony baloney jobs to protect🙄🤡

14/14 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jan 24
I'm sorry, but this statistic:

>>Violent crime is falling, with homicides down ~21%. The largest annual drop on record.

...has been heavily polluted by improvements in trauma care, particularly hemostatic (blood clotting) bandages.

US Trauma care & FBI statistics🧵

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The statistical comparison in the FBI data from pre-1961 is invalid as the underlying medical systems have so changed as to utterly pollute the "murders per 100,000" data.

Violent crime data pre-1961 and post 1961 are apples to oranges comparisons.

2/
-Trauma care centers (1961),

-Standardized trauma procedures (1978),

-Adoption of military Korea/Vietnam medical emergency treatment & air transport procedures,

-Improved triage (1986)

-And (since 2011) widespread adoption and use of blood clotting bandages...

3/
Read 8 tweets
Jan 24
Chairman Xi suffers from the traditional dictator's trap of believing his own sh*t because he has made it too dangerous for his cronies and underlings to tell him the truth.

He has failed the "Dictator on the Wall Test."

1/
Thanks to that, Chairman Xi's Regime has pretty much no resilience in adversity because it's so kleptocratic and it's all about what the guy in charge can do for his next set of corrupt cronies today.

2/
This 1970's comment about the Shah of Iran is so historically on point in 2026 because it shows how Xi's regime is failing "The dictator on the wall test."

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 22
Greenland is badly needed by the USA to engage nuclear armed hypersonic glide vehicles and FOBS from China and Russia aimed at the continental USA.

So-called experts saying Greenland is "unnecessary" are "Cold War thinkers" focused on traditional ICBM threat geometries.
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They are not thinking in terms of the detection geometries required for lofted or depressed trajectory ICBM's, HGV, and/or FOBS.

For those threats, the further forward you can deploy radars and interceptors, the better for detection and intercept.

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When geometrically minded experts in Australia looked at PLARF depressed trajectory ICBM's, HGV, and FOBS threat set.

They ended up placing a TPY-2 radars on the Cocos Island & Christmas Island ("Greenland for Oz") to generate tracks for SM-3 & THAAD interceptors.
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Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
This map of 124 Russian railway electric traction stations and the 40K OWA drone fired in 2025 demonstrates the political-military leadership failure of the Zelinskyy government.

Like Stalin's failed winter 1941-1942 counter offensives against Nazi Army Group Center,

🚅🧵
1/
...Ukraine is penny packing OWA drones everywhere to no great effect based on which military "Union" faction was last in the room with President Zelenskyy before a decision

Even Ukraine's vaunted oil offensive is a bare plurality of total drone strikes
2/
The latest @RyanO_ChosenCoy thread detailing the bureaucratic issues of Ukraine's military in targeting Russian logistics makes clear Ukraine's military has inter-service and intra-service union/factional disputes that are positively American in scale.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 19
Untrue⬇️

If the target of a US "rapid strike" was either the Kharg Island oil export facility or Iran's banking/financial system with a combination of explosives and non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse munitions, the Mullahs will fall.

COA🧵 Image
This post is typical of analytical thinking regarding strikes on Iran.

Note the complete lack of either Kharg island or the Iranian financial system on the list.

Regime Security Force as a distinct target set that needs a payroll is missing.

2/
There are two real courses of action (COA) for an American air campaign if Regime Change is the goal.

The Schwerpunkt - political center of gravity - of the Mullah regime is its ability to pay for the use Regime Security Forces & foreign hired mercenaries.

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Read 8 tweets
Jan 18
This is one of the 3 major strategic mistakes of the Zelenskyy Government.⬇️

Putin has shown better, more consistent, and more effective leadership in the strategic bombing of Ukrainian electrical infrastructure than Zelinskyy has in striking Russia's railways.

1/
Russia remains uniquely vulnerable to a focused drone strike campaign on it's electrical railway traction step down transformers.

Zelenskyy's leadership not only ignored hitting that unique Russian vulnerability since Feb. 2022.

See the figure below⬇️

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To give you an idea of the abject political-military failure of the Zelenskyy government in this regard one has to look at the industrial supply chain for those traction substations.

The Soviet Union had two major transformer factories: Tolyatti and Zaporozhye.

3/
Read 8 tweets

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