Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 23, 2023 14 tweets 8 min read Read on X
I've been getting some...interesting...reactions to my S-200 threads here on X/Twitter, particularly in some of the spaces I frequent.

Notably, when I'm not present.🙄🤡

It isn't that hard to find good sources on the internet for the S-200/SA-5 Gammon.

A DAFS 🧵
1/
Or good, if dated, information on the Ukrainian SAM networks locations and weapons.

2/
geimint.blogspot.com/2009/07/ukrain…
This Forbes piece seems to be what is setting the yo-yo's off.

Who would have thunk it.🤣🤣🤣

For some reason, some people on X/Twitter have real mental blocks about doing a flipping search and READING.🤯

3/
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
When the Soviet Union fell apart, a lot of ex-Soviet military folks were selling the manuals for every surface to air missile in the Soviet arsenal for whatever they could get.

Information from them are found in a lot of places online. For instance:⬇️

4/
ausairpower.net/APA-S-200VE-Ve…

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And this as well:

5/
ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-SAM-Si…



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There is also pretty darned good material in Russian available now that translation software is an app in most internet browsers.

This was not quite as technically up to date, but it had lots on the S-200 warhead which wasn't in the APA articles.

6/
pvo.guns.ru/s200/index.htm
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Now, there are more recent (and much worse) Russian language articles on the S-200.

This one in particular has some...odd...assumptions about rigging a 5V28 to fly a ballistic or semi-ballistic trajectory for 450-600 km range.

7/
zvezdaweekly.ru/news/202381151…

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Albeit that it has this S-200 missile impact crater from Belgorod Russia complete with the black residue of burning hypergolic fuel in the soil of the crater.

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The profile for the 5V21/28 engaging a high flying distant target is a steep climb to ~80K feet, horizontal cruise until close enough to the target, then a shallow dive to impact.

The 5V28 has the same wing surfaces as a AIM-54 Phoenix because it flies the same trajectory.

9/
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The 2018 movie FIRST MAN has a wonderful segment where the X-15 tumbles on atmospheric reentry

That segment was a good illustration of the challenges creating flight controls customised for reentry so, for instance, a S-200/5V28 missile conversion does not tumble on descent
10/


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The 5V28 missiles Ukraine has in storage are honking big puppies that have a whole lot of room to become what Air Power Australia (APA) liked to call a "digitised stone axe."

That is, the repurposing large stocks of obsolete SAMs by insertion of modern digital technology.

11/
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Thinking like that is against the US Department of Defense procurement 'secular religious catechism' of:

"If it isn't new, it's obsolete."

Ukraine could not afford such waste & pursued this "digitised stone axe" option with the S-125-2D.

12/
facebook.com/zbroya.ua/post…
But there simply wasn't enough money for more than a battery of S-125-2D.

Given both the failed development of the Grom-2/Hrim-2, and the existential war for existence Ukraine find itself in, porting existing guidance technology to the 5V28 is a no brainer.

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Unless you are a senior US DoD procurement official, or a senior US National Security intelligence official playing the political-patronage expectations game, while talking to the media.

There are phony baloney jobs to protect🙄🤡

14/14 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jan 22
Stephen Blank has always had a clear US policy view of Russia:

"Moreover, Putin and his circle consistently advance two intertwined claims:

1. Ukraine is inherently Russian;

2. this war steps from NATO’s alleged attempt to turn

1/
euromaidanpress.com/2025/01/22/tru…
...its supposed vassal state Ukraine into a member against Russia’s will.

Though some self-proclaimed experts still peddle this nonsense, this war’s true purpose is unmistakable:

2/
...the restoration of the Russian empire, without which Putin’s power – and that of his likely successors – cannot persist."

I'll add the following:

The arrival & mass production of Chairman Xi's Corvus Mulberry barges (pictured below behind a Chinese car ferry⬇️)...

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 20
400 Houthi aerial drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles were fired at/near USN ships since Oct 2023

120 SM-2 & 80 SM-6 missiles, 160 five-inch main guns rounds, plus a combined 20 Evolved Sea Sparrow and SM-3 missiles engaged them.

Drone War Cost Trades 🧵
1/ Image
Tyler Rogoway has reported the following missile costs:

SM-2 Block IIIC - $2,530,000 per missile.
SM-6 - $4,270,000 per missile.
Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM) RIM-162 Block II - $1,490,000 per missile.
SM-3 -$12,510,000 for the Block IB, and $28,700,000 for the Block IIA
2/ Image
So:

120 SM-2 * $2.53 million = $303.6 million
80 SM-6 * $4.27 million = $341.6 million
12 ESSM (guess) = $17.88 million
6 SM-3 IB (guess) * $12.51 million = $75 million
2 SM-3 IIA (guess) * $28.7 million = $57.4 million

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Read 16 tweets
Jan 17
The fire and forget millimeter wave (MMW) radar guidance AGM-114L "Hellfire Longbow" being referred in the War Zone post as "a new anti-drone armament" for the LCS actually ceased production in 2005 and reaches end of life in 2025.

1/
One of the reasons the AGM-114L was dropped from the US Army M-Shorad is the US Army didn't want to pay money to recertify the AGM-114L inventory...

2/
...with the AGM-179 Joint Air-to-Ground Missile (JAGM) equipped with dual-mode Semi-Active Laser (SAL) and millimeter wave (MMW) radar seeker just entering production.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 16
It is a bad week to be Russia.

Qatar, one of the biggest LNG exporter, just announced it's new six MTPA (million tonnes per annum) nitrogen fertilizer plant.

The chemical process involved is natural gas->ammonia -> urea for a
1/
dohanews.co/qatar-set-to-b…
...vertically integrated facility.

This new Qatar facility means Middle Eastern fertilizer industrial plants have now displaced Russia on the world fertilizer market.

2/
This makes Russia falling out of the world Ag-sector fertilizer supply chain a non-event going forward.

The Qatari sheiks made a good move here to capture value up the supply chain from energy.

Plus, Urea and Ammonia store far better than liquified natural gas.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jan 15
I disagree with the thoughts in this post for multiple reasons.⬇️

1st, Ukraine made a systematic effort in Oct 2024 to take out multiple Russian alcohol distilleries.

So distilleries are on the AFU strategic bombing list.

1/
2nd, there are a lot of things that alcohol is a chemical feedstock for that Russia desperately needs to make.

I've talked about synthetic rubber for tires in another thread.


2/
A short list of Russian industrial alcohol uses include:

o It's used as an industrial solvent.
o It's used as a precursor for numerous plastics.
o It's used as a precursor for some explosives.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 15
Ukraine struck another Russian alcohol plant?

I'm beginning to think the Russians have been using alcohol to make butadiene based synthetic rubber.

My WW2 US mobilization resources say grain produced alcohol was the primary chemical feedstock for the synthetic rubber

1/
...in US tires until August 1944.

The process was invented by a Russian, Via wikipedia:

"The Russian chemist Sergei Vasilyevich Lebedev was the first to polymerize butadiene in 1910....

2/
...In 1926 he invented a process for manufacturing butadiene from ethanol, and in 1928, developed a method for producing polybutadiene using sodium as a catalyst.

The government of the Soviet Union strove to use polybutadiene as an alternative to natural rubber ...

3/
Read 6 tweets

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