Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 23, 2023 14 tweets 8 min read Read on X
I've been getting some...interesting...reactions to my S-200 threads here on X/Twitter, particularly in some of the spaces I frequent.

Notably, when I'm not present.🙄🤡

It isn't that hard to find good sources on the internet for the S-200/SA-5 Gammon.

A DAFS 🧵
1/
Or good, if dated, information on the Ukrainian SAM networks locations and weapons.

2/
geimint.blogspot.com/2009/07/ukrain…
This Forbes piece seems to be what is setting the yo-yo's off.

Who would have thunk it.🤣🤣🤣

For some reason, some people on X/Twitter have real mental blocks about doing a flipping search and READING.🤯

3/
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
When the Soviet Union fell apart, a lot of ex-Soviet military folks were selling the manuals for every surface to air missile in the Soviet arsenal for whatever they could get.

Information from them are found in a lot of places online. For instance:⬇️

4/
ausairpower.net/APA-S-200VE-Ve…

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And this as well:

5/
ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-SAM-Si…



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There is also pretty darned good material in Russian available now that translation software is an app in most internet browsers.

This was not quite as technically up to date, but it had lots on the S-200 warhead which wasn't in the APA articles.

6/
pvo.guns.ru/s200/index.htm
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Now, there are more recent (and much worse) Russian language articles on the S-200.

This one in particular has some...odd...assumptions about rigging a 5V28 to fly a ballistic or semi-ballistic trajectory for 450-600 km range.

7/
zvezdaweekly.ru/news/202381151…

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Albeit that it has this S-200 missile impact crater from Belgorod Russia complete with the black residue of burning hypergolic fuel in the soil of the crater.

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The profile for the 5V21/28 engaging a high flying distant target is a steep climb to ~80K feet, horizontal cruise until close enough to the target, then a shallow dive to impact.

The 5V28 has the same wing surfaces as a AIM-54 Phoenix because it flies the same trajectory.

9/
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The 2018 movie FIRST MAN has a wonderful segment where the X-15 tumbles on atmospheric reentry

That segment was a good illustration of the challenges creating flight controls customised for reentry so, for instance, a S-200/5V28 missile conversion does not tumble on descent
10/


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The 5V28 missiles Ukraine has in storage are honking big puppies that have a whole lot of room to become what Air Power Australia (APA) liked to call a "digitised stone axe."

That is, the repurposing large stocks of obsolete SAMs by insertion of modern digital technology.

11/
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Thinking like that is against the US Department of Defense procurement 'secular religious catechism' of:

"If it isn't new, it's obsolete."

Ukraine could not afford such waste & pursued this "digitised stone axe" option with the S-125-2D.

12/
facebook.com/zbroya.ua/post…
But there simply wasn't enough money for more than a battery of S-125-2D.

Given both the failed development of the Grom-2/Hrim-2, and the existential war for existence Ukraine find itself in, porting existing guidance technology to the 5V28 is a no brainer.

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Unless you are a senior US DoD procurement official, or a senior US National Security intelligence official playing the political-patronage expectations game, while talking to the media.

There are phony baloney jobs to protect🙄🤡

14/14 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jul 2
Injection molding requires an industrial scale, and above all, _reliable_, supply chain to be more efficient that 3D printing.

This is in a lot of 3D/AM industrial guru papers on the transition from low thousands a year production to the tens of thousands scale.

1/
Injection molding gets you a lot of one thing cheaply. Think lots of fiber optic guided FPV drones, which are immune to radio jamming.

3D/AM allows a lot of modifications to meet the changing requirements of war. Think rapidly evolving Ukrainian interceptor drone designs.

2/
The issue for Ukraine versus Russia is Ukraine has to more widely disperse its industrial base because Russia has a bigger cruise and 500 km(+) ballistic missile production base.

Ukraine's need to disperse production and evolve drones means 3D/AM is a better industrial fit.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jul 1
Ukrainian mass production of FPV interceptor drones has reduced the cost per shot from $7,200 to $5,800.

The US Coyte II drone interceptor runs to $100K a shot.

The cost difference was the Big/Expensive/Few platform & missile cult was in charge of developing the Coyote II.
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The Coyote I was a propeller interceptor like the Ukrainian FPV's, but it wasn't "enough" for the higher end drone threat like the TB-2 Bayraktar.

2/ Image
So the US military abandoned kinetic solutions the lower end drone threat.

And it has to pretend that high power microwave weapons and jamming will be the answer to fiber optic guided FPV's at weed height and grenade dropping drones behind tree lines.

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Read 4 tweets
Jun 27
The F-35 Big/Expensive/Few Platform & Missile cult is in deep denial of this battlefield reality.

Air superiority below 2,000 feet/600 meters has been lost by crewed aircraft.

F-35's are irrelevant for the Mavic drone threat, save as a budget threat to the C-UAS procurement.
1/
The arrival of the Ukrainian Gogol-M, a 20-foot span fixed-wing aerial drone mothership, with over a 200km radius of action while carrying a payload of two 30km ranged attack drones under its wings, underlines the impact of low level airspace as a drone "avenue of approach."
2/
The Gogol-M flys low and slow, below ground based radar coverage like a helicopter.

It opens up headquarters, ground & air logistics in the operational depths to artificial intelligence aided FPV drone attacks.

3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 27
This is the main example of one of the most unprofessional delusions held by the US Navalist wing of the F-35 Big/Expensive/Few platform and missile cult.

Russian fiber optic FPV's have a range of 50km - over the horizon!

1/
This means things as the Russians make these FPV's from Chinese commercial drone components in six figure and soon 7 figure (millions!) numbers.

This has huge implications for the impending Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

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When China invades Taiwan, the 1st move will be occupying the small islands around Formosa (left) and making them drone, GMLRS & HQ9 SAM bases.

50 km circles around all those small islands cover almost all the invasion beaches (map right) with PLA 50km fiber optic FPV's.

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Read 5 tweets
Jun 24
It isn't just a matter of pre-2023 sniper tactics being obsolete.

Every patrolling tactic taught by the US Army Infantry and Ranger schools are obsolete when you can "just send a drone. "

1/3
Drones simply don't have ground line of sight issues like soldiers do.

Drones can see in more of the electromagnetic spectrum than humans.

And the US Army refuses to buy enough small drones (1 m +) to train their troops to survive on the drone dominated battlefield.🤢🤮

2/3
"Just send a drone" is the proper tactic for almost everything a 21st century infantryman does from patrolling, raiding enemy positions, sniping and setting up forward observation posts.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jun 23
Please note that Iran _ISN'T_ shooting down IDF drones over Tehran⬇️

There are technological reasons for that.

1/2
The odds are heavily in favor of the IDF having parked Hermes drones with "Gorgon Stare" technology over Tehran to hunt Iranian senior government officials.

2/2 Image
P.S.

This is the wiki on Gorgon Stare technology.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorgon_St…Image
Read 4 tweets

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