Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 23, 2023 14 tweets 8 min read Read on X
I've been getting some...interesting...reactions to my S-200 threads here on X/Twitter, particularly in some of the spaces I frequent.

Notably, when I'm not present.🙄🤡

It isn't that hard to find good sources on the internet for the S-200/SA-5 Gammon.

A DAFS 🧵
1/
Or good, if dated, information on the Ukrainian SAM networks locations and weapons.

2/
geimint.blogspot.com/2009/07/ukrain…
This Forbes piece seems to be what is setting the yo-yo's off.

Who would have thunk it.🤣🤣🤣

For some reason, some people on X/Twitter have real mental blocks about doing a flipping search and READING.🤯

3/
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
When the Soviet Union fell apart, a lot of ex-Soviet military folks were selling the manuals for every surface to air missile in the Soviet arsenal for whatever they could get.

Information from them are found in a lot of places online. For instance:⬇️

4/
ausairpower.net/APA-S-200VE-Ve…

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And this as well:

5/
ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-SAM-Si…



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There is also pretty darned good material in Russian available now that translation software is an app in most internet browsers.

This was not quite as technically up to date, but it had lots on the S-200 warhead which wasn't in the APA articles.

6/
pvo.guns.ru/s200/index.htm
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Now, there are more recent (and much worse) Russian language articles on the S-200.

This one in particular has some...odd...assumptions about rigging a 5V28 to fly a ballistic or semi-ballistic trajectory for 450-600 km range.

7/
zvezdaweekly.ru/news/202381151…

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Albeit that it has this S-200 missile impact crater from Belgorod Russia complete with the black residue of burning hypergolic fuel in the soil of the crater.

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The profile for the 5V21/28 engaging a high flying distant target is a steep climb to ~80K feet, horizontal cruise until close enough to the target, then a shallow dive to impact.

The 5V28 has the same wing surfaces as a AIM-54 Phoenix because it flies the same trajectory.

9/
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The 2018 movie FIRST MAN has a wonderful segment where the X-15 tumbles on atmospheric reentry

That segment was a good illustration of the challenges creating flight controls customised for reentry so, for instance, a S-200/5V28 missile conversion does not tumble on descent
10/


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The 5V28 missiles Ukraine has in storage are honking big puppies that have a whole lot of room to become what Air Power Australia (APA) liked to call a "digitised stone axe."

That is, the repurposing large stocks of obsolete SAMs by insertion of modern digital technology.

11/
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Thinking like that is against the US Department of Defense procurement 'secular religious catechism' of:

"If it isn't new, it's obsolete."

Ukraine could not afford such waste & pursued this "digitised stone axe" option with the S-125-2D.

12/
facebook.com/zbroya.ua/post…
But there simply wasn't enough money for more than a battery of S-125-2D.

Given both the failed development of the Grom-2/Hrim-2, and the existential war for existence Ukraine find itself in, porting existing guidance technology to the 5V28 is a no brainer.

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Unless you are a senior US DoD procurement official, or a senior US National Security intelligence official playing the political-patronage expectations game, while talking to the media.

There are phony baloney jobs to protect🙄🤡

14/14 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 21
Nothing says hyperinflation like a ten million currency unit banknote.

The US and Western nations need to be three weeks into planning for relief and stability operations to prevent mass starvation in Iran after the Mullah Regime goes down.

After the Mullah's🧵
1/
The horrid impending humanitarian disaster reality for Iran is the current regime is a dead man walking because of hyperinflation.

Iran lacks the administrative ability to replace the current hyperinflated currency in the traditional manner...

2/
...of a three day closing of the banks and handing out new note for old.

In addition, the close down of the internet for security reasons combined with the striking of Iranian bank data centers means there are no operable credit or debit cards.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 17
The US-Israeli air campaign against Iran is following Warden's "Five Rings" system strategy.

Mullahs & IRGC leaders are inthe dead center of the 5-rings.

The Basij are usually considered "fielded forces" by analysts who don't understand the role of Regime Security Forces in a totalitarian regime.

1/Image
Regime Security Forces live in the "System Essentials" ring of a totalitarian government as they control the communications and information in a totalitarian society as a part of their anti-coup mission.

2/ Image
The fact that any major leadership[ meeting of the IRGC or Basij is catching several smart bombs addresses both of the "inner rings."

3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 17
People really don't understand how shutting down the internet has flatlined the Iranian economy.

There are no credit card transactions
No electronic bank transfers
No ATM transactions

1/
All the usual electronic traffic between residential & supermarket banks branches to main branches has to be done by paper, if it is done at all.

You cannot do "Just-in-time" inventory management without the internet.

2/ Image
The Mullah shutdown of the internet as a security measure means the "Velocity of Money" in the Iranian economy has tubed.

This will bring on more of the economic hyper-inflation-food insecurity issues in Iran that set off the Jan 2026 insurrection.

"Dead Regime Walking."
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Read 4 tweets
Mar 15
If Israeli Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) drones are killing Shaheed-136 launch crews.

They are not killing Basij regime security force checkpoints.

The US-Israeli air forces will need to inflict at _least_ 200K casualties to Iranian regime security forces...
1/3
...for a successful civilian insurrection to have a good chance of success.

Even if there are ~200 checkpoint drone strikes per day inflicting 5 casualties each. That is only 1,000 a day, AKA 200 days.

2/3 Image
BLUF:

US-Israeli airpower has to increase the Regime Security Force casualty rates to ~6,700 a day to end the air campaign in another 30 days.

B-52 & B-1's playing 'loitering bomb trucks' can do that, with less restrictive rules of engagement resulting in collateral damage
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Read 4 tweets
Mar 12
What jumps put for me looking at this report of the Mullah's decamping to Mashad is the US-Israeli intelligence had to know as soon as it started.

I believe that the steaming of the USS Ford through the Suez Canal happened because of this.

Collapse 🧵
1/
If the Mullah's command was moving.

Their ability to command drone and missile strikes on the USS Ford would be minimal, if only to avoid US-Israeli radio-direction finding.

Mashad is also very convenient place to run away from Iran if the government falls everywhere else.
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The Mullah's are so afraid of getting the "Maduro Treatment" by US Special Forces in Mashad that they have blocked the local airport runways with cars

3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 9
The problem with this thought is the Iranian drones being fired now are the uber sophisticated Russian-guilt Geran using radio mesh and cell phone sim card link video-navigation.

1/3
They are flying lower and more sophisticated trajectories taking advantage of radar shadows from oil infrastructure in the Gulf to prevent the generation of good intercept tracks.

Gun armed ships and attack helicopters low amongst oil rigs are the best play here.

2/3
It is only a matter of time until Geran/Shaheed FPV motherships are being fired by the IRGC at Gulf Oil infrastructure using Gulf Cell phone networks as video data links.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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