Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 23 14 tweets 8 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I've been getting some...interesting...reactions to my S-200 threads here on X/Twitter, particularly in some of the spaces I frequent.

Notably, when I'm not present.🙄🤡

It isn't that hard to find good sources on the internet for the S-200/SA-5 Gammon.

A DAFS 🧵
1/
Or good, if dated, information on the Ukrainian SAM networks locations and weapons.

2/
geimint.blogspot.com/2009/07/ukrain…
This Forbes piece seems to be what is setting the yo-yo's off.

Who would have thunk it.🤣🤣🤣

For some reason, some people on X/Twitter have real mental blocks about doing a flipping search and READING.🤯

3/
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
When the Soviet Union fell apart, a lot of ex-Soviet military folks were selling the manuals for every surface to air missile in the Soviet arsenal for whatever they could get.

Information from them are found in a lot of places online. For instance:⬇️

4/
ausairpower.net/APA-S-200VE-Ve…

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And this as well:

5/
ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-SAM-Si…



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There is also pretty darned good material in Russian available now that translation software is an app in most internet browsers.

This was not quite as technically up to date, but it had lots on the S-200 warhead which wasn't in the APA articles.

6/
pvo.guns.ru/s200/index.htm
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Now, there are more recent (and much worse) Russian language articles on the S-200.

This one in particular has some...odd...assumptions about rigging a 5V28 to fly a ballistic or semi-ballistic trajectory for 450-600 km range.

7/
zvezdaweekly.ru/news/202381151…

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Albeit that it has this S-200 missile impact crater from Belgorod Russia complete with the black residue of burning hypergolic fuel in the soil of the crater.

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The profile for the 5V21/28 engaging a high flying distant target is a steep climb to ~80K feet, horizontal cruise until close enough to the target, then a shallow dive to impact.

The 5V28 has the same wing surfaces as a AIM-54 Phoenix because it flies the same trajectory.

9/
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The 2018 movie FIRST MAN has a wonderful segment where the X-15 tumbles on atmospheric reentry

That segment was a good illustration of the challenges creating flight controls customised for reentry so, for instance, a S-200/5V28 missile conversion does not tumble on descent
10/


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The 5V28 missiles Ukraine has in storage are honking big puppies that have a whole lot of room to become what Air Power Australia (APA) liked to call a "digitised stone axe."

That is, the repurposing large stocks of obsolete SAMs by insertion of modern digital technology.

11/
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Thinking like that is against the US Department of Defense procurement 'secular religious catechism' of:

"If it isn't new, it's obsolete."

Ukraine could not afford such waste & pursued this "digitised stone axe" option with the S-125-2D.

12/
facebook.com/zbroya.ua/post…
But there simply wasn't enough money for more than a battery of S-125-2D.

Given both the failed development of the Grom-2/Hrim-2, and the existential war for existence Ukraine find itself in, porting existing guidance technology to the 5V28 is a no brainer.

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Unless you are a senior US DoD procurement official, or a senior US National Security intelligence official playing the political-patronage expectations game, while talking to the media.

There are phony baloney jobs to protect🙄🤡

14/14 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 20
This comment from my earlier S-200 analysis thread needs to be addressed...

...plus I have material that didn't fit into that thread.😉

A S-200/5V28 weapons effect analysis 🧵

1/
1st, the 5V28 missile fired from the S-200 launcher had sufficient range to reach the Kerch Bridge.

2/
We have had several 5V28 missile strike videos and photos for earlier, pre-Kerch bridge, Ukrainian strikes.

This is from Taganrog, Russia.

3/
Read 19 tweets
Aug 20
I've done threads on the S-200/5V28 in the ground to ground role previously, but I've yet to do so for the recent Kerch Bridge strike.

This🧵will change that.

1st - Black smoke is consistent with a 5V28 due to the combustion of the
1/

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...remaining AK-27P/TG-02 propellants. So we are looking at four 5V28 Kerch missile impacts.

These hypergolic propellants let a late model 5V28 missile engage a SR-71 Blackbird traveling at Mach 3 at a range of 345 km with a 5 minute time of flight.

2/
censor.net/en/photo_news/…

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And we ARE NOT seeing any black clouds in the air indicating a successful Russian SAM engagement of a 5V28.

No black smoke in the sky = No Russian SAM hits on a 5V28 missile.

3/
Read 23 tweets
Aug 19
While "first reports are always wrong," there is more good news here than possibly two Backfire bombers (Tu-22m3) detonating under this reported AFU drone strike.

Russian missile tech🧵⬇️
1/7
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While some media sources are claiming that either Tu-22m3 or a fuel depot were hit. The smoke rising from is the wrong color for that.

Burning jet fuel is black.

The smoke rising from the VKS Soltsi military airfield isn't black. What's burning?
2/7
en.defence-ua.com/events/a_drone…
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The answer is a bunch of these. These are Kh-22 (or X-22) anti-ship cruise missiles used on Cold War Backfire bomber to hunt USN Carriers.

Their warheads use the plastic explosive known as RDX.

The smoke over Soltsi military airfield is consistent with burning RDX.

3/7
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Read 8 tweets
Aug 18
Looks like DC's "de-escalation" faction that is centered on the National Security Council is out in force the last couple of days in conducting another campaign to trash the Ukrainian arms.

You can tell by all the logical fallacies & fictitious data.

1/washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
I mean, look at this:



2/nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/…
...and compare it to this report on the shortages of whole blood in Moscow hospitals due to the superior battlefield weapon effects of US/Turkish cluster munitions in Ukraine.🙄

AFU vs RuAF casualty ratios matter.🤦‍♂️

3/
Read 19 tweets
Aug 10
This Ukrainian article titled "Russians in Ukraine's south cannot cope with huge number of wounded" is useful in showing how Russia is using occupied hospital facilities to the exclusion of medical treatment of Ukrainian civilians.

RuAF CasEvac🧵

1/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…
This Reddit post has a captured Rostov-on-the-Don aerial evac-point video that is notable for the lack of medical support.

1. No intravenous fluids
2. No obvious medical people working
3. No food, just water
4. Thin/Malnourished RuAF wounded

2/
reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVi…
5. No shelter whatsoever from the sun, wind, jet blast, or rain.
6. The stated cause for the hours long delay was a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow.

3/


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Read 11 tweets
Aug 8
Now we know where RuAF is now shipping its fuel & ammo now that Crimean ground lines of communication (AKA bridges) have been interdicted.⬇️

A Russian logistical desperation🧵
1/
The Russians are now dependent on occupied Ukrainian civilian ISO container export facilities at Berdyansk to bring in supplies to their Army.

2/

We should be looking for a similar Russian SAM battery reinforcement for the port of Mariupol.

RuAF truck convoys from both ports are the only real option for the next month or so to maintain their current front lines in Zaporizhzhya.

3/
Read 8 tweets

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