(Part 2)
Let's talk about what Happened during the first days of the #counteroffensive in the #Verbove and #Robotyne Area in detail
Its split into 2 threads because I can't put over 25 tweets in a thread, this is Part 2
[Thread] 1/
After the failed assault on the eastern side the remaining vehicle relocated to the western side of the treeline
the 46ths convoy hadn't formed up yet
and the 33RD m113s went in alone and got entirely destroyed by artillery 2/
the 46th decided to go in as well after whatever remained from the 33rds convoy got atomized
it was a massacre the vehicles that survived were abandoned
really sad sight to see, all this happened because of disorganization and confusion 3/
the Last convoy is the smallest one its a reinforced armored Plt From the 118th:
4 T72M1s
1 YPR-765
1 MaxxPro
4/
this small convoy didn't achieve much either 2 T72M1s got hit by FPV strikes 1 managed to leave 1 MaxxPro got hit also the lead vehicles( 2 T72M1s 1 YPR) managed to break onto the highway 5/
the ones that escaped pushed up the highway and they met their fate by artillery where the leo2a4 got destroyed 6/
this was not a good start to the counter offensive
there were a lot of mistakes done
lack of AD
lack of EW
lack of artillery support
lack of Aviation Support
lack of Coordination
lack of Organization
etc
a lot of these still stand today
7/
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I want to talk about this video from @MilHiVisualized and address certain things using some Velika novosilka engagements.
Thread🧵
First, I want to talk about ISR and staging areas.
After the Counter offensive units finished their training in late may, they got deployed into their rear staging areas around Pokrovske specifically chosen because they had Large Towns and forested areas. 1/2
These areas failed to conceal the Ukrainian Grouping.
It's unclear if the Ukrainians made attempts to further conceal their elements on the battalion to Plt levels but still, it was very clear that the operation was gonna happen at this specific sector.
the French AASMs will be a direct contributor to the Russian FAB250 with a Conversion kit for guidance.
This cheap conversion has allowed the Russians to fire 10s if not 100s of Bombs a day from 70kms away
The French AASMs are technologically superior in many ways to the Russian UMPK FABs but they cost more than 20 times extra.
Of course the Russian don't just use Glide bombs, they also use KABs which have a shorter range but are more technologically advanced
Why Ukraine should withdraw from #Avdiivka, before it gets bad.
explaining the logistics of such a situation
Thread🧵
Assuming we have a reinforced brigade inside this town, it would need Small Arms/Mortar ammunition Rations, Petroleum, oil, Lubricants, Water potentially medical equipment of Spare Parts, Engineers would need resources and tools in order to do their jobs etc.
Similarly the unit would need to send stuff back to their trains, this would include damaged equipment, Casualties, POW's etc.
Service Routes are also used for Rotations or Reinforcements
a little look at the Avdiivka situation just a quick thread
Thread🧵
during the last month the Russian after realizing their operations on the flanks had failed, started relocating and reinforcing forces towards more direct avenues to the town although this doesn't that they were interested in being stuck in heavy urban combat for months
the Russians planned to assault the weakly held fortification at the Tsarka Hotel(not sure about the name) and break into the the town
can Ukraine launch another offensive this year if yes how where and could it have Strategic Significance
Thread🧵
after the failure of the Ukrainian offensive in 2023 we haven't heard anything about a 2024 offensive this could either be because there is nothing planned or simply to not set any expectations to western allies and to keep it secret from the enemy
in this thread we'll analyze the capabilities Ukraine could potential master for an offensive in 2024
Understanding the western Logistical Structure and how they influence the battlefield
Thread
Part 1
Logistics are probably one of the most important factors in War it can be the difference between a 2 week operation and a 3 year struggle, a Commander's understanding of his own logistical capabilities is vital in an operation of any scale
in this thread I'll try my best to explain the complexity of Sustaining operations and hopefully open up a new perspective for people reading