Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Aug 27 7 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The Ukrainian strategy is working.

The russians keep moving troops to the center of the Southern Front. Thus they thin out their lines everywhere else. This is opening gaps in the russian front, which the Ukrainians will exploit, when they feel the time is right.
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Until then the Ukrainians are destroying russian forces in the center of the Southern Front with superior Western donated artillery: precision guided munitions like GMLRS, Excalibur, SMArt 155, Bonus to destroy russian equipment and DPICM to annihilate russian personnel.
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It's a meat grinder and the russians are feeding in forces from front sectors they deem "safe". This is why I believe the main Ukrainian advance will not occur, where we have seen fighting over the last two months. In the center of the Southern Front the russians are
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reinforcing their lines... while in other places the russians are thinning out their lines. The Ukrainians have kept at least a dozen brigades in the rear to exploit a breakthrough in the russian lines.
Ukrainian forces crossing the Dnipro already encounter very little
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russian resistance. Recently the russians moved part of the 76th Air Assault Division from Kremina to the Southern Front meat grinder. Slowly but surely russia is creating opportunities for the Ukrainians to break through the Russian line. It's a question of when not if.
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What Ukraine needs now is a steady stream of precision guided munitions and DPICM 155mm projectiles; and DPICM M26 rockets, M1A1 Abrams tanks, more infantry fighting vehicles and long range missiles - ATACMS would be best, but at least GLSDB should be finally delivered.
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It's a materiel battle and by delivering lots of it we win this war.

Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov keeps saying that Ukraine will soon enter Crimea... and he is correct. Anyone saying "The offensive has failed", is a failed analyst.
Victory is near.
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More from @noclador

Aug 18
Ukrainian troops I spoke to say that russia's Lancet kamikaze drones are currently the biggest problem they face on the battlefield... and that they have no solution to the problem yet.

First: No (!) NATO army has a solution to this problem, as all NATO armies lack a system
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like i.e. the Skyranger capable to shoot down kamikaze drones... and the ridiculously low numbers of systems being ordered aren't gonna do any good.

If NATO militaries would have taken the drone threat serious, 60+ Skyranger would come of the production lines monthly now.
2/n Image
Only the US Army has gone on an emergency shopping spree to buy Stryker M-SHORAD vehicles, but 12x batteries of 12x vehicles is far too little.

So how can we help Ukraine? There are four ways:

1) Taurus
2) Harop
3) 🚀tech transfer
4) get off our asses and start building 60+
3/n Image
Read 17 tweets
Aug 13
I have been very, very critical of the German government's slow response to russia's invasion and lack of weapon deliveries in 2022, BUT now I have to defend Germany: saying "only half of what Germany promised has been delivered" is bullshit.

Germany's military is out of
1/2 Image
materiel to give to Ukraine. Almost all that has been pledged now comes from Germany's defense industry, which means it has to be produced first.
Germany never said everything would come right away - it has always said that everything pledged will arrive right after it has
2/4 Image
been produced. All of it will go directly from factory to the front. If you visit the German government's website, that lists all of the equipment delivered to Ukraine - everything marked with a * comes from industry. Of 178 items listed - 119 come
3/4
bundesregierung.de/breg-de/schwer…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 13
As news from Karabakh become more shrill, a short thread about what led to the standoff:

• Armenian weapon smuggling

Karabakh can be supplied by two roads, which both end in Karabakh's capital Stepanakert/Xankəndi (green):

• from Goris in Armenia via Lachin (purple)
1/18 Image
• from Barda in Azerbaijan via Aghdam (blue)

For the last few years the Armenians have been using the newly built Lachin road, which crosses through Azerbaijan before reaching Armenian held Karabakh, which is recognized by all nations (including by Armenia) to be part of
2/18 Image
Azerbaijan. For years Azerbaijan did not interfere with Armenian traffic on the Lachin road; but with the mandate of the russian "peacekeepers" running out in November 2025, the Karabakh Armenians, aided by the russian "peacekeepers", began to smuggle weapons and ammo
3/18 Image
Read 18 tweets
Aug 9
The 111 known Ukrainian combat brigades are:

Army:
• 34x Mechanized
• 5x Tank
• 5x Motorized
• 4x Rifle
• 2x Jaeger
• 2x Mountain
• 2x Assault
• 1x Special Purpose
• 1x Presidential

Air Assault Forces:
• 4x Air Assault
• 3x Airmobile
• 1x Airborne
• 1x Jaeger
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Marine Corps:
• 4x Marine

Air Force:
• 1x Rifle

Territorial Defense:
• 31x Defense

National Guard:
• 7x Offensive Guard

National Police:
• 1x Offensive Guard

Border Guards:
• 1x Offensive Guard

General Staff:
• 1x Guards

And there might be more.
2/6 Image
As for support brigades and regiments:

• 3x Special Forces regiments
• 16x Artillery brigades
• 1x Rocket Artillery regiment
• 2x Engineer brigades
• 5x Engineer regiments
• 3x Pontoon Bridge regiments
• 7x Tactical Aviation brigades
• 4x Army Aviation brigades
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Read 7 tweets
Aug 7
This is how they lost the last war, this is how they are gonna lose everything...

Insisting that there never must be peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, means that the war never ends and means that Azerbaijan is legally entitled to use force to disarm the Armenian military
1/5
formations inside Azerbaijan. No peace also means that Armenia refuses to accept the border with Azerbaijan... but that means that Azerbaijan can grab pieces of the border lands at will and Armenia has no chance to get international support, as Armenia refused to demarcate
2/5
the border.

Armenia's Prime Minister Pashinyan has understood this and is trying his best to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, and also end the stupid cold war with Turkey. It's the only way to safeguard the future of Armenians in Karabakh and bring prosperity to Armenia.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Aug 1
As there is a bit of a kerfuffle again in the South Caucasus... a quick explainer:

• russian "peacekeepers" and Karabakh Armenians used the Lachin road, which passes through Azerbaijan, to smuggle weapons and ammunition from Armenia to Karabakh.
• to stop this Azerbaijan
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built a border post on the Lachin road and insists on inspecting all trucks.
• the Karabakh Armenians insist that Azerbaijan has no right to inspect what is being transported through Azerbaijan into Azerbaijan.
• in Brussel Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to open the Aghdam
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road from Azerbaijan to Karabakh, and agreed that on this road there would be no inspections at all.
• but the Karabakh Armenians blocked that road and
• now the Karabakh Armenians insist that they are starving...

The problem is that Armenia wants peace, Azerbaijan wants
3/12 Image
Read 12 tweets

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