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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Sep 6, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Oh my goodness, this:

"...many supplies are transported by car",

has a huge numbers of implications for Russian logistics.🤯

Russian De-motorization, Arriving🧵
1/
Civilian cars are very poor load carriers for the fuel used.

Yes, Russia is a petro-state, but you still have to move the gasoline, not diesel, to run the cars.

Russia has to be short of something to use cars in lieu of tactical or semi-tractor trailers to Mariupol.

2/
We have been seeing Russian Ural "Scooby vans," or "Loafs" as some call them, for over a year in the tactical supply distribution role.

Semi-tractor trailers have been used statically & operationally for almost as long.


3/
Using cars as strategic logistical transportation to Mariupol represents a fleet wide level of operational attrition affecting both tactical trucks like the Kamaz and Semi-Tractor trailer rigs.

That common denominator spells tire shortages.

4/
We know at the beginning of the war Russia had ill maintained, sunlight aged, s--t tires from China on its missile launcher and tactical truck fleet.

5/
To use civilian cars in the long haul strategic transport role to Mariupol from Rostov-on-the-Don means a horrific level of operational attrition representing the 'de-motorization' of the Russian Economy is happening in real time.

6/6 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 18
Ukraine should thank Putin for invading Kharkiv Oblast.

Doing so has finally unmasked the duplicity of the Biden Administration on the use of Western weapons inside Russian territory.

It's _NO_ for ALL Western weapons in Russia, not just US weapons🧵

1/
Image
If you have always wondered why Ukraine's Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles haven't been used on the Kerch Straits Bridge...

...wonder no longer. The answer is "Escalation Management."

The Biden Administration's delusional fear that Russia will collapse if Ukraine wins.

2/ Image
And it isn't me saying this. It is Pres. Zelensky of Ukraine that did so.

"President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Ukraine's partners "are afraid of Russia losing the war" and would like Kyiv "to win in such a way that Russia does not lose"...

3/
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 17
This is a "flaming datum" for the Lanchester Square Collapse of Russian national air defenses.

And it wasn't just 20 drones flying by.

Lanchester smiles at RuAF National Air Defenses🧵
1/
Image
It was 80.

2/
And a high percentage of this Ukrainian propeller cruise missile stream hit their intended targets.

3/
Read 18 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 17
I'm going to pound on a point generally ignored in the OSINT community on X.

That is, how little OSINT analysis of satellite and drone videos can actually see in terms of fragmentation damage due to low video resolution.

Eternal BDA Failure 🧵
1/
Please carefully look at the disabling tungsten ball fragments from GMLRS strikes on this truck.

Go to the 2 minute to end of the video. Satellites simply cannot see this damage, nor most drone videos.

2/
The "intact & seemingly undamaged" planes at Belbek airfield in that MAXAR satellite imagery could and likely are looking like this Russian helicopter.

image h/T @Wilkmans
3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 14
What Ms. Tchakarova is referring to here Russian Reflexive Control information warfare techniques.

I've talked about it quite a bit during the Russo-Ukrainian War and how adherents of "Escalation Management" like @jacksullivan46 and Chancellor Scholz have been captured by it
1/
@PhillipsPOBrien had a nice substack column about the effectiveness of Russian Reflexive Control back in March of this year.

2/
This particular passage from Timothy L. Thomas 2004 paper on the subject shows how Russia's Reflexive control infowar mapped & fed to each specific US tribal & professional demographic the data to get the message Russian wants those groups to believe.
3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 13
This explains the "Imperial Japanese Army at Saipan" behavior of wounded Russian soldiers killing themselves with grenades to prevent capture by Ukrainians.

Russian Mobiks are being ideologically conditioned to kill themselves, like IJA troopers were in WW2.

Russian Death Cult🧵
1/
There are multiple videos like this Russian ideological self-harm conditioned behavior surfacing.

2/
This ideological conditioning is being reinforced to Russian troops by their commanders.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 6
There are still Western military officers -- including most flag ranks -- watching videos like the one below and denying FPV and other cheap DJI drones have fundamentally changed the way wars on the ground are fought.

Drone War🧵
1/7
A year ago Ukraine had 10,000 drone operators, one per 100 troops

It has trained far more since then.

In fact, the AFU has created a military drone branch co-equal to infantry and artillery branches.

2/7
In some forward areas there are now as many Ukrainian drone operators as infantry because FPV drones have all but replaced crew served infantry weapons.


3/7
Read 8 tweets

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