Thread by @RonBrownstein

A cottage industry has developed claiming a massive realignment away from Ds among non-college non-white voters centered on cultural issues. Today's new @Univision poll, which they say has largest Latino sample in 23, challenges those claims. @LeonKrauze

All data sources agree Trump & GOP gained w/non-col nonwhites, especially Latinos, from 16 to 20. But Rs generally didn't progress further w/Latinos, esp in SW, in 22. And this massive @Univision poll shows them still facing substantial resistance despite discontent over economy

In a rematch, @univision found Biden leading Trump w/Latinos 58-31 overall. Among those w/HS degree or less, Biden led 56-29; some college was 58-31; college+ was 60-30. For each group, Biden's vote share was higher than his favorability, signaling ongoing resistance to Trump

Poll has some warning signs to Ds about atittudes among younger Latinos. But still about 70% of Latinos at each education level say Rs don't care about Latinos or are hostile to them. Big majorities of each group back D positions on assault weapons, abortion, citizenship

4/5 of Latinos want citizenship for Dreamers, over 3/5 oppose ending birthright citizenship as Trump & other 24 Rs want. Rs do run even on which party would best handle border security, but Ds lead big at all education levels on immigrant rights & looking out for middle-class

Warning sign for Ds is only 46% said party cares re Latinos-but # for GOP was much worse, 28%. Asked directly which party is better for Latino community, Ds still led almost 2-1 (54-28%). More cited funding & supporting teachers as K-12 priority than less LGBTQ or race content

Mexican-Americans, key for Ds in NV/AZ, leaned strongly their way across these issues. They preferred Biden over Trump 59-29. Also, 59% of them gave Biden positive job marks, part of 57% of all Latinos who approved-more than many polls w/small Latino samples have found

In all this, this survey by a Dem/Republican team of pollsters, reinforces findings of @EquisResearch about 2022: Rs have built a higher floor w/Latinos in Trump era but didn't make significant further gains despite discontent re economy

Lots of Latinos are unhappy with the economy, this poll shows & that could open space for GOP. But the headwinds for Trump not only on immigration but many other core Biden priorities are notable in this survey-not only among college+ Latinos but those w/less education

Overall, this survey shows Biden with 65% of 2-party Latino vote v Trump, which Ds would take in a heartbeat. Biden might not reach that in 24, but, like 22, this large-sample survey suggests claims of a big blue-collar Latino realignment are at the least very premature too (end)