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Oliver Alexander Profile picture
@OAlexanderDK
Oct 17, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
The failed rocket launch is looking more and more like the culprit in the attack on the hospital.

This video shows the impact a few moments after an interception.
The building burning in the video is the hospital.

Note the distinctive shape and solar panels on the roof of the building in the foreground.

(31.5051383, 34.4612642)

H/T @COUPSURE + @ELINTNews
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@COUPSURE @ELINTNews The blast at the hospital happens less than 20 seconds after a large volley of rockets is launched at Israel with a trajectory over the hospital.
A good point has been made that this looks more like a rocket motor failure than interception.

Looking closer at the video I agree. A plum can be seen coming off the rocket a second before the aerial explosion.

This could explain the fact that we see two blasts on the ground.
After the rocket motor failure, the rocket disintegrates. One part lands first causing a small blast, likely part of the motor.

The warhead then lands on the hospital causing the larger blast.
More geolocation
With the information currently available, this seems like the most plausible scenario at the moment.

Ideally we could see images of the debris at the site to confirm the culprit, but given the situation that is going to be impossible.
IDF drone footage of the hospital from after the attack shows damage that is a lot more consistent with a failed rocket than a JDAM.

Majority of the damage is concentrated on the car park, with no visible crater.

Hopefully we get footage from the ground today in the daylight
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First image of the blast site in daylight.

Again no evidence at all of a JDAM strike and further evidence of a failed rocket launch.

Vast majority of the damage concentrated in the parking lot of the hospital.
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This image also has the exact same number and distribution of vehicles as the released IDF drone footage, confirming the veracity of both.
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This image what looks to be the only crater that has been visible in any of the currently released footage of the hospital blast.

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More from @OAlexanderDK

Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jun 28
Elvira Nabiullina is by far the most competent person in the Russian government and has almost single-handedly managed to keep the Russian economy afloat for the past year despite increasing pressure from above to change key policies. Image
She is however rapidly running out of black magic and the creative accounting required to continue her success. With Israel/Iran not causing the expected oil price surge, the record deficit is increasing and the methods of financing it are dwindling.
OFZs are being sold at record levels to state owned banks, but the high interest rate means the income is only just enough to cover the payments due on last year’s bonds.

The NWF’s liquid assets dipped below the government deficit last month further adding to the headaches.
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jun 21
Summary of the significant evidence that the B-2s currently airborne are a strike package heading directly for Iran:

1. Immediate refuelling after departing from Whiteman Air Force Base indicates that the aircraft are carry close to their maximum payload.
If not an immediate strike, it is highly likely that the ordnance would have be pre-positioned at Guam or Diego Garcia with C-5 or C-17 transport aircraft in order to save the logistical headache of the additional aerial refueling and airframe stress.
2. If the B-2s continue onward to Iran they will arrive on target a few hours prior to opening of the Futures market at 6PM ET Sunday. This will give the Trump administration time to host a press briefing to calm the markets before they open.
Read 5 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Mar 7
Maxar has cut off satellite imagery access to Ukraine, undoubtedly due to pressure from the U.S. government.

This means that not just classified, but commercially available unclassified intelligence products are being cut off.

I now fully expect Starlink to be next.
*Insert 100th WAKE UP CALL FOR EUROPE tweet*
Image
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Dec 25, 2024
All the videos of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight showing the damage show holes in the wreckage have entry holes on the port side and exit holes on the starboard side, likely with a slight angle from below.
Here one can see the difference between the port and starboard side of the aircraft’s vertical stabilizer. Image
Image
Visible damage to the port side flap hinge fairing prior to the crash. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Dec 24, 2024
🧵The Ursa Major was heading to Vladivostok and not en route to aid in the evacuation of Tartus.

Given cargo it carried, this is in fact even worse for Russia than if it had been heading to Tartus.
The Ursa was carrying two Liebherr 420 mobile cranes for the harbor in Vladivostok that is heavily backed up due to a lack of cranes and two 45-ton hatches for the construction of the new Project 10510 nuclear powered icebreaker.

obl.ru/pressa/news/po…
In this image you can see both of the the cranes, as well as grab buckets for bulk handling at the harbor in Vladivostok at the front of the vessel.

The loss of these cranes will severely hurt loading/unloading times in Vladivostok. Image
Read 5 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Dec 16, 2024
🧵More and more pointing towards the Russia/HTS deal to keep their bases has fallen apart.

The media caught wind of the deal negotiations on the 12th.

On the 12th Russia started moving its valuable S400 system out of Khmeimim Air Base

On the 12th within 2 hours of each other, the Ursa Major left St. Peterburg for Vladivostok and the Sparta left Baltiysk for Port Said, Egypt.

Both locations that could easily send them to Tartus instead. Image
Image
On the 13th Russia decided to suspend grain shipments to Syria

Read 5 tweets

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