Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
@OAlexanderDK
Oct 17, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
The failed rocket launch is looking more and more like the culprit in the attack on the hospital.

This video shows the impact a few moments after an interception.
The building burning in the video is the hospital.

Note the distinctive shape and solar panels on the roof of the building in the foreground.

(31.5051383, 34.4612642)

H/T @COUPSURE + @ELINTNews
Image
Image
@COUPSURE @ELINTNews The blast at the hospital happens less than 20 seconds after a large volley of rockets is launched at Israel with a trajectory over the hospital.
A good point has been made that this looks more like a rocket motor failure than interception.

Looking closer at the video I agree. A plum can be seen coming off the rocket a second before the aerial explosion.

This could explain the fact that we see two blasts on the ground.
After the rocket motor failure, the rocket disintegrates. One part lands first causing a small blast, likely part of the motor.

The warhead then lands on the hospital causing the larger blast.
More geolocation
With the information currently available, this seems like the most plausible scenario at the moment.

Ideally we could see images of the debris at the site to confirm the culprit, but given the situation that is going to be impossible.
IDF drone footage of the hospital from after the attack shows damage that is a lot more consistent with a failed rocket than a JDAM.

Majority of the damage is concentrated on the car park, with no visible crater.

Hopefully we get footage from the ground today in the daylight
Image
First image of the blast site in daylight.

Again no evidence at all of a JDAM strike and further evidence of a failed rocket launch.

Vast majority of the damage concentrated in the parking lot of the hospital.
Image
This image also has the exact same number and distribution of vehicles as the released IDF drone footage, confirming the veracity of both.
Image
Image
This image what looks to be the only crater that has been visible in any of the currently released footage of the hospital blast.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Oliver Alexander

Oliver Alexander Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @OAlexanderDK

Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Dec 25, 2024
All the videos of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight showing the damage show holes in the wreckage have entry holes on the port side and exit holes on the starboard side, likely with a slight angle from below.
Here one can see the difference between the port and starboard side of the aircraft’s vertical stabilizer. Image
Image
Visible damage to the port side flap hinge fairing prior to the crash. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Dec 24, 2024
🧵The Ursa Major was heading to Vladivostok and not en route to aid in the evacuation of Tartus.

Given cargo it carried, this is in fact even worse for Russia than if it had been heading to Tartus.
The Ursa was carrying two Liebherr 420 mobile cranes for the harbor in Vladivostok that is heavily backed up due to a lack of cranes and two 45-ton hatches for the construction of the new Project 10510 nuclear powered icebreaker.

obl.ru/pressa/news/po…
In this image you can see both of the the cranes, as well as grab buckets for bulk handling at the harbor in Vladivostok at the front of the vessel.

The loss of these cranes will severely hurt loading/unloading times in Vladivostok. Image
Read 5 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Dec 16, 2024
🧵More and more pointing towards the Russia/HTS deal to keep their bases has fallen apart.

The media caught wind of the deal negotiations on the 12th.

On the 12th Russia started moving its valuable S400 system out of Khmeimim Air Base

On the 12th within 2 hours of each other, the Ursa Major left St. Peterburg for Vladivostok and the Sparta left Baltiysk for Port Said, Egypt.

Both locations that could easily send them to Tartus instead. Image
Image
On the 13th Russia decided to suspend grain shipments to Syria

Read 5 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Dec 3, 2024
Most of the Korean SOF operators I saw at the National Assembly building had no magazines in their pistols, were carrying blue training magazines and had simunition bolt carriers in their rifles.
Empty pistol with no magazine in it. Image
SCAR L with a blue man marker / blank training bolt carrier instead of a live bolt carrier.

The weapon can’t fire live rounds with that bolt carrier. Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jul 19, 2024
🧵Analysis of footage from the Trump assassination attempt shows that Trump and David Dutch were hit in Crook's initial 3 shot volley. Corey Comperatore and James Copenhaver were struck by Crook's follow-up volley a few seconds later. (1/8) Image
This wide angle recorded by the Right Side Broadcasting Network shows the entire event unfold and shows all 3 bystanders get struck by Crook's bullets. (2/8)
The first round fired by Crook's impacts the railing visible in the video quoted here causing a puff of smoke after grazing Donald Trump. (3/8)



Image
Image
Read 28 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Mar 26, 2024
As can be seen from this video, Dali starts billowing dark smoke from its funnel just prior to the turn that sets it on a course with the pillar.

At the same time the vessel appears to briefly lose power as many of the lights onboard go out for a few seconds.
Dali starts billowing smoke at 01:25:39 EDT and then loses power for 30 seconds at 01:26:37. This is the exact point when the ship begins to alter course towards the bridge pillar.
Image
Image
The vessel only drifted about 75 meters south west of where it should have passed under the Francis Scott Key Bridge.

It appears very likely that a malfunction on the vessel caused it to briefly lose power, which caused it to drift slightly off course impacting the bridge.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(