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Oliver Alexander Profile picture
@OAlexanderDK
Oct 17, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
The failed rocket launch is looking more and more like the culprit in the attack on the hospital.

This video shows the impact a few moments after an interception.
The building burning in the video is the hospital.

Note the distinctive shape and solar panels on the roof of the building in the foreground.

(31.5051383, 34.4612642)

H/T @COUPSURE + @ELINTNews
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@COUPSURE @ELINTNews The blast at the hospital happens less than 20 seconds after a large volley of rockets is launched at Israel with a trajectory over the hospital.
A good point has been made that this looks more like a rocket motor failure than interception.

Looking closer at the video I agree. A plum can be seen coming off the rocket a second before the aerial explosion.

This could explain the fact that we see two blasts on the ground.
After the rocket motor failure, the rocket disintegrates. One part lands first causing a small blast, likely part of the motor.

The warhead then lands on the hospital causing the larger blast.
More geolocation
With the information currently available, this seems like the most plausible scenario at the moment.

Ideally we could see images of the debris at the site to confirm the culprit, but given the situation that is going to be impossible.
IDF drone footage of the hospital from after the attack shows damage that is a lot more consistent with a failed rocket than a JDAM.

Majority of the damage is concentrated on the car park, with no visible crater.

Hopefully we get footage from the ground today in the daylight
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First image of the blast site in daylight.

Again no evidence at all of a JDAM strike and further evidence of a failed rocket launch.

Vast majority of the damage concentrated in the parking lot of the hospital.
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This image also has the exact same number and distribution of vehicles as the released IDF drone footage, confirming the veracity of both.
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This image what looks to be the only crater that has been visible in any of the currently released footage of the hospital blast.

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More from @OAlexanderDK

Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Mar 26
As can be seen from this video, Dali starts billowing dark smoke from its funnel just prior to the turn that sets it on a course with the pillar.

At the same time the vessel appears to briefly lose power as many of the lights onboard go out for a few seconds.
Dali starts billowing smoke at 01:25:39 EDT and then loses power for 30 seconds at 01:26:37. This is the exact point when the ship begins to alter course towards the bridge pillar.
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Image
The vessel only drifted about 75 meters south west of where it should have passed under the Francis Scott Key Bridge.

It appears very likely that a malfunction on the vessel caused it to briefly lose power, which caused it to drift slightly off course impacting the bridge.
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jan 27
🧵If this video was recorded on January 24th 2024, it poses as many questions as it answers.

Due to the Russian governments decision to add a cut in the middle, it is impossible to verify completely, but here are some things it does show:
The video was indeed filmed at Chkalovsky airport in Moscow where Russia claims the Il-76 that was shot down departed from.

There is a cut towards the end of the video. During this cut, the Tu-154 parked close to the Il-76 has departed.

A Tu-154M matching the aircraft that disappears during the cut departs from Chkalovsky Air Base at 09:55AM MSK on January 24th.


Image
Read 8 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Oct 21, 2023
🧵After looking at all the currently available data on the al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion, I have made two discoveries.

#1: The "rocket" in this video is in fact a Tamir interceptor missile launched by Iron Dome and not directly related to the explosion.
#2 : Two of the videos thought to show the explosion at the hospital, which have been used in many analysis, do not show that blast, but another explosion in Gaza that happened approximately 20 seconds prior.

The first is the video from Netiv HaAsara.


The second is the video posted by Channel 12 News. Both these videos show the same event, which took place just prior to the hospital explosion, but end before we see the explosion or launch of the Tamir interceptor from Iron Dome.


Read 21 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Aug 26, 2023
🧵There are a few major points that never get mentioned in the Spiegel article, which add significant question marks to the Andromeda story.

- The owner of Feeria Lwowa
- Weather conditions
- Minerva Julie

spiegel.de/international/…
The article mentions that the company that paid for the Andromeda charter, Feeria Lwowa, is run by a Ukrainian woman in Kyiv.

There is however no mention of the owner of the company "Diana B."

n-tv.de/politik/Nord-S…
Diana B. was born in Uzbekistan, moved to Kerch in 2001, and has Russian citizenship. She still lives in Kerch and moves around freely inside Russia, posting images of herself on social media.

She has also worked for the Pro-Russian authorities in Crimea.
Read 9 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jul 27, 2023
Seymour Hersh’s latest dementia rant is out which includes this gem: Image
He also now claims that his intelligence sources have told him that the initial attack on the Kerch Bridge in October was done using US technology and submersible drones. Something that, like all Hersh’s statements is categorically false.

oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-cause-of…
Yes Hersh, this is definitely something a U.S. official told you and not just one of your many fever dreams or your Russian handler. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jul 20, 2023
The Russian statement to attack civilian shipping going to any Ukrainian port can be add to the long list of poorly thought out Russian plans.

Ships going to the port of Izmail, Ukraine have to sail up through the Danube River on the border with Romania. Image
So either Russia starts attacking shipping mixed in with shipping going to Galați, Romania while also risking attacking ships in Romanian waters

Or

They again have to move their “Red Line” and say that it is in fact all Ukrainian ports except Izmail.
As the bad excuse for their statement was that they would consider all ships to be “potential carriers of military cargo”, this means Russia is only scared of military cargo being unloaded specifically at the grain terminal in Odesa and not just down the road in Izmail.
Read 4 tweets

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