Thread by @SpencerGuard

Israel says they have "entered the next phase," of their war against #Hamas in #Gaza What does that mean? What have we seen so far and what are we likely to see next? #urbanwarfare 🧵

On October 7 some 2,500 #Hamas terrorists entered Israel & slaughtered, raped, mutilated > than 1,400 people, the vast majority of them civilians & abducted over 229 people to include babies & Holocaust survivors > 80 yrs old taken into the Gaza Strip. Hundreds of war crimes.

Hamas & other terrorist organizations in Gaza also launched > 2000 rockets at Israel just on October 7 & so far > 7,000 mostly at civilian sites in Israel who intercepted over 1,100 of them, 550 misfired & fell inside Gaza, and > 400 directly hit Israel. time.com/6327831/israel…

In response, Israel formally declared a defensive war (a UN Charter right) against Hamas in Gaza with the stated military goal to "destroy Hamas military capability" Sub-goals likely retrieving hostages & ensuring another attack never happens again. cnn.com/2023/10/08/mid…

The first phase of Israel's war was to immediately begin an air campaign to prevent rockets from hitting Israeli civilians, destroy Hamas military capability before the ground invasion such as leadership, communication, infrastructure, rockets, weapon supplies, tunnel networks.

On October 7, @IDF began requesting civilians in many areas around Gaza City (Hamas stronghold) to evacuate with TV/social media messages, phone/text, flyers. This expanded to all of northern Gaza where the largest combat with Hamas will likely occur.

https://x.com/PlanetReportHQ/status/1710815339804561685?s=20

Israel also mobilized for the war, to include calling up 360,000 reserves to add to the active >160k plus @IDF and massing ground units of engineers (bulldozers), armor (hundred of tanks), mechanized/light infantry, artillery, helicopters in attack positions near/around Gaza.

Israel Air Force continued the Air campaign phase daily dropping > 6,000 bombs on Hamas military targets. @IDF have also conducted shaping operations from small to large raids into Gaza City to recon Hamas defenses, gather intel, clear routes, deception.

https://x.com/IDF/status/1718609906834473097?s=20

Despite claims of @IDF war crimes from false accusations of bombing a hospital in Gaza to perceived acts bordering "collective punishment" the IDF IMO has taken extraordinary steps to adhere to LOAC and reduce civilian harm. Listen to my podcast on it: mwi.westpoint.edu/the-idf-approa…

I believe Israel will eventually conduct multiple deliberate attacks of multiple cities in Gaza simultaneously (focus Gaza city) to include recon, move to, isolate, breach, seize a foothold using aerial, close air support, and artillery to close with & destroy Hamas (2014 op pic)

The bombing campaign will not reduce. Naval and Air Force capabilities will be made available to @IDF as they move closer to #Hamas defensive positions. Artillery will increase significantly to include thousand of rounds a day fired at Hamas.

The IDF will face Hamas in dens urban areas where Hamas will attempt to maximize the inherent advantages of defending urban terrain and pull the IDF into the dense urban areas that reduce IDF superior military capabilities (8 rules): mwi.westpoint.edu/the-eight-rule…

The IDF will face many known (use of humans shields, tunnels, snipers, ambushes, strongpoints, drones, rubble, IEDs/mines) and unknowns challenges in a ground campaign to destroy Hamas - which will require close combat - you can't bomb to that goal.
mwi.westpoint.edu/these-are-the-…

The IDF will have to use fires/recon/engineer forces to clear routes (mines/rubble/ambushes) to get armor/infantry close to Hamas centers of gravity (objs for IDF). Like similar city attacks (Raqqa, Mosul, Marawi, Fallujah) a major contested obstacle reduction operation.

Because of the dense rubbleized urban terrain, fighting will prevent maneuver, spread IDF out, and funnel forces into narrow streets/alleyways. Many battles will occur at the very lowest level (platoon/company) block by block, house by house, tunnel by tunnel.

Unique to Gaza, the IDF will face the tunnels Hamas has spent decades digging under Gaza's civilian sites. It will truly be a nightmare challenge with most of Hamas hostages likely underground, but not insurmountable. mwi.westpoint.edu/underground-ni…

The IDF are uniquely prepared to deal with tunnels in the middle of fighting and with how to destroy the tunnels after most of the close combat is completed. From sponge bombs to filling tunnels with seawater. mwi.westpoint.edu/what-can-the-i…

The IDF will be forced to conduct strongpoint (anchors of Hamas perimeter defenses) reduction battles. The IDF could fight over a single building for days. These are not sieges (using a siege to achieve a military goal) but a repeatable attack of a single enemy strongpoint.

This will be a long, extremely destructive and costly battle, 10 times what has been seen so far, but not ahistorical. The 2016-2017 Battle of Mosul is the most similar recent urban battle. People should read the summary @JaysonGeroux and I wrote. mwi.westpoint.edu/urban-warfare-…