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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Nov 26 • 13 tweets • 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
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What you are seeing here in these Black Sea storm are wind fields causing a mass casualty event with Russian VKS rotary wing aircraft in Crimea, S. Ukraine & S. Russia.⬇️

Any rotary wing craft w/o a hanger & unable to fly out before the storm will be heavily

Storm damage🧵
1/
...damaged.

The historical example here is the 1989 Mother's Day Microburst that destroyed the US Army helicopter fleet at Fort Hood.

A microburst disabled 2/3 of all the AH-64A Apaches in the world with that one weather event.
2/
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Plus one hundred other US Army helicopters were damaged as well.

The winds in this Black Sea storm are 26 meters/sec, or lightly under 65 miles an hour sustained winds.

3/ Image
The old Soviet Union put all of its hardened aircraft shelters in Western Ukraine facing NATO.

Eastern Ukraine, Crimea & Russia...?

Not so much.
4/ Image
So we are going to be seeing a lot of Russian VKS helicopters rotors looking like this sort of wind storm driven modern art.

And that is only the beginning of the logistical problems the Russians are going to have from this storm.

5/

Image
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Semi-tractor trailers have a really hard time in high winds.

The Youtube video below gives you a good idea what Black Sea storm winds are now doing to Russian Semi-tractor trailer rigs on roads from Crimea & Rostov-on the Don.

6/
There are a lot of Semi-tractor trailers cycling out of Crimea from both Krasnoperekopsk and Dhzankoy resulting in huge miles/kilometers long traffic jams.

Imagine what this storm is going to those rigs right now.
7/
Crimea has lost at least 1/4 of its power and Rostov-on-Don is suffering a huge geography focusing storm surge that will beach a large number of fuel barges RuAF forces depend upon.

Russian landing craft operating from Yevpatoriya northwards are facing 9 meter (30 ft) waves.

8/ Image
And as @CovertShores has pointed out, the booms covering Sevastopol and the Kerch Straits Bridge are also eating those same 9 meter waves.

Both targets will be naked for Ukrainian boat-drones immediately after the storm abates.

9/
With neither operable booms on the water, nor operational helicopters in the air, Russian fleet and bridge infrastructure will be uniquely vulnerable to Ukrainian boat-drone interdiction efforts for a week to 10 days, minimum.

10/ Image
And clearing the Black Sea "Snowmageddon" Storm-overturned Russian semi-tractor trailers piling up right now on Russian ground lines of communications to the Russian Army in Ukraine will take several several days.

(Note: US Semi-truck used for illustration)

11/ Image
I'm thinking now that this Ukrainian attack against Russian power for their electric railways in Donetsk, slowing supplies to Avdiivka, included the weather report on this
Black Sea Storm to leverage Ukraine's "Death of a Thousand Cuts".

12/12 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 25
Just...no.

The issue with precision guided artillery projectiles like the laser guided Copperhead & current Excalibur is they cost 2 or 3 times what a non-tube artillery guided projectile cost.

Copperhead was $60K in late 1980's money while a Paveway II kit was $15K

Drone🧵
1/ Image
A GPS guided Excalibur is around $73K a round versus $21K for a JDAM kit plus the price of the bomb of between $4K & $16K in 2020 money.

Ukrainian long range FPV drones are running $1K to $5K depending on the sensor.

And these cost ratios are only the tip of the cost iceberg
2/ Image
The Big/Few/Expensive crowd on X are ignoring the issue of installed base costs.

There are very, very, few trained artillerymen world wide compared to the number of people skilled with drones.

Training skilled artillerymen costs militaries far more than drafting a
3/
Read 13 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 19
Oh boy, the manifold RuAF artillery supply chain logistical failures shown in the @secretsqrl123 post & the telegram video.😱

It is time for us all to visit "The Myth of the Russian Artillery Ammocopia: North Korean edition."

1/
 t.me/warhistoryalco…

Image
Let's start with the fact we are looking a North Korean D-20 152mm howitzer with dry rotted to nothing wheels, using North Korean 152mm ammo.

This underlines four things true in every war:
1. There are never enough artillery shells
2. There are never enough tires
3. There

2/ Image
(3. con't)...are never enough barrel liners.
4. There is never enough productive capability for new guns barrels.

And one thing that is true in this war that no one noticed for 80 years. The lack of mechanized logistics in the form of pallets & forklifts in the Russian Army.

3/
Read 20 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 15
This is one of the most poignant testimonies as to why FPV drones are replacing direct fire ATGM on the battlefield.

Only drones can provide the necessary mass of precision guided munitions for a modern battlefield.

Lt. Chornovol is buying 4 drones a month because it is

1/
...twice the number of Stugna ATGM Ukraine's military can give her two launchers per month.

And Ukraine builds Stugna for $20,000. That is 1/5th that of a US Javelin missile doing the same job.

The Stugna Launcher can be remote fired, but her crew still has to recover it.
2/ Image
Taking insane risks from Russian return fire because there are no replacement launchers.

FPV drones don't require launchers.

They don't require exposing yourself to enemy direct fire to use them.

3/ Image
Read 21 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 13
This is the 2nd of a so far series of three Strategypage -dot- com op-eds by Tom Holsinger on Biden Administration foreign policy.

And it has a nuclear clickbait opening paragraph I don't want to believe, lots of reasons.

1/
 strategypage.com/qnd/israel/art…
Image
The major problem that I have in _disbelieving_ that opening paragraph are the (in)actions of the Biden Administration with retaliating against Iranian proxy militias.

A Trump vs Wagner mercs in Syria sized curb stomping of Iranian proxies is required.
2/
Instead, the Biden Administration is doing things like asking China for help in getting Iran to stop being on a 1979 and counting mission from G-d against the 'Great Satan' (Mullahese for the USA).🙄

3/
Read 18 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 12
I reported another video of this AFU strike, but this one tells us a great deal about RuAF logistical operational patterns.

1. The RuAF tactical trucks were escorted by armored mobility vehicles through Ukraine from Crimea to protect it from Ukrainian partisans/Special Forces
1/
2. The tactical trucks were 23-25 km back from the front line transferring their troops & material to UAZ/Loaf/Scooby Doo vans.

This says a lot about composition of the Russian wheeled logistical vehicle fleet after 20 odd months of combat attrition.

2/ Image
Russia is trying to protect it's Kamaz tactical truck fleet by keeping them outside the nominal range of Ukrainian artillery.

This isn't possible in Kherson as the E-14 from Rostov-on-the-Don and the E-97 from Western Crimea have AFU drones parked on

3/
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 10
This report from @CovertShores is an extraordinarily important one for what it tells us about Ukraine's expanding anti-access area denial (A2AD) bubble it is building against RuAF logistics to occupied Eastern Kherson.

Watercraft Fuel Logistics 🧵
1/
The Ondatra & Serna-class landing craft are roughly the equivalent of a WW2 era US Navy LCM.

Gen. MacArthur's Engineer Special Brigades use them to move troops 100's of km. in the S. Philippines campaign shore to shore in the Victor & King operations
2/
Image
Rather than carrying the 30 ton load that a mid-WW4 Sherman tank represented for a Landing Craft Mechanized, (LCM).

These Russian landing craft are scaled to carry a single T-72 tank (45 tons).

This makes them critical for RuAF fuel logistics.

3/
Read 11 tweets

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