In 2024... Bitcoin will set a new all-time high, the spot bitcoin ETF will be the most successful ETF launch of all time, Coinbase’s revenue will double, and more…
Here are 10 Crypto Predictions for 2024 by the team at @BitwiseInvest
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Prediction #1: Bitcoin will trade above $80,000, setting a new all-time high.
There are two major catalysts that will help get us there: the anticipated launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024 and the halving of new bitcoin supply around the end of April.
Prediction #2: Spot bitcoin ETFs will be approved, and collectively they will be the most successful ETF launch of all time.
Within five years, we estimate spot bitcoin ETFs could capture 1% of the $7.2 trillion U.S. ETF market, or $72 billion in AUM.
Prediction #3: Coinbase’s revenue will double, beating Wall Street expectations by at least 10x.
Historically, Coinbase's trading volumes surge in bull markets, and we expect the same to happen again. Plus, they’ve launched a wide range of new products that are showing traction.
Prediction #4: More money will settle using stablecoins than using Visa.
Stablecoins are one of crypto’s “killer apps,” growing from effectively zero to a $137 billion market in the past four years, and we think 2024 will be another major year of growth.
Prediction #5: JPMorgan will tokenize a fund & launch it on-chain as Wall Street gears up to tokenize real-world assets.
Launching a tokenized fund would allow them to take advantage of the efficiencies on-chain assets can offer while entering a market whose growth is exploding.
Prediction #6: Ethereum revenue will more than 2x to $5b as users flock to crypto applications.
In 2023, users will pay ~$2.3b in fees to use Ethereum. We think that will at least 2x in 2024, making Ethereum one of the fastest-growing large-scale tech platforms in the world.
Prediction #7: Taylor Swift will launch NFTs to connect with fans.
One possibility? Spotify—where Swift was the most-streamed artist in 2023 with more than 26b streams—is experimenting with token-gated playlists that require listeners to own a particular NFT in order to listen.
Prediction #8: AI assistants will start using crypto to pay for things online, affirming crypto as “the native currency of the internet.”
We believe AI assistants will prefer digitally native money, like bitcoin or stablecoins. And we think that starts happening in 2024.
Prediction #9: More than $100 million will be staked in prediction markets, which will emerge as a new “killer app” for crypto.
We think decentralized prediction markets will become a primary venue for both event-based and more traditional sports-related wagering.
Prediction #10: A major upgrade to Ethereum will drive the avg transaction cost below $0.01.
EIP-4844 could result in a 90%+ reduction in the cost to use Ethereum. We think this upgrade will pave the way for the first truly mainstream applications in crypto.
Bonus Prediction: 1 in 4 financial advisors will allocate to crypto in client accounts by the end of 2024.
We anticipate that once bitcoin becomes easily accessible, more and more advisors will allocate to crypto in clients’ accounts.
Please note: As with all predictions, these are not guarantees, but represent our best informed estimate. The future is complex and conditional, and whether these pan out exactly as written will depend on many complicated factors. Nothing above is investment advice.
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DeFi applications produce revenue, just like traditional financial institutions. The revenue generally comes from charging users a fee for transacting on the application.
Over the past two years, the top ten DeFi apps (by market cap) generated ~$5B in revenue.
3/ PROFIT
Some applications are already channeling part of their revenue to token holders in the form of dividends or buy-backs.
When evaluating DeFi apps, understanding how much profit exists for token holders—and how the profit is distributed—is an important nuance.
In our newest research piece, @Anais_Rchl, @GayatriPC_, & I explore Staking as a Service (STaaS), an emerging crypto sector poised for growth.
- The Merge & why people stake crypto assets
- Staking as a Service & the growth of STaaS providers
- The outlook for STaaS
2/25
Ethereum's transition to Proof-of-Stake is reshaping the crypto economy, pushing the idea of staking front and center in investors' minds.
Long-term ETH holders who choose to stake now have the potential to earn a 4-8% yield on their position through staking.
3/25
So, what is staking?
Staking involves making a financial commitment to a blockchain in its native asset to secure the network. It's a fundamental component of blockchain infrastructure because of the security and decentralization it provides.
1/9 Is it ideal that more than 40% of the blocks created on #Ethereum in the hours following #TheMerge belong to just two staking service providers: Lido (DeFi) and Coinbase (CeFi)? No
2/9 First, it makes sense that the largest staking service providers have the advantage early on, particularly in the hours & days following Ethereum’s transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS)...
3/9 After all, most stakers experiencing issues during the transition to PoS will be the individual stakers running their own validators, not the prominent service providers with full-time teams & resources dedicated to staking operations.