Ryan Rasmussen Profile picture
Dec 13, 2023 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
In 2024... Bitcoin will set a new all-time high, the spot bitcoin ETF will be the most successful ETF launch of all time, Coinbase’s revenue will double, and more…

Here are 10 Crypto Predictions for 2024 by the team at @BitwiseInvest

🧵👇
Prediction #1: Bitcoin will trade above $80,000, setting a new all-time high.

There are two major catalysts that will help get us there: the anticipated launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024 and the halving of new bitcoin supply around the end of April. Image
Prediction #2: Spot bitcoin ETFs will be approved, and collectively they will be the most successful ETF launch of all time.

Within five years, we estimate spot bitcoin ETFs could capture 1% of the $7.2 trillion U.S. ETF market, or $72 billion in AUM. Image
Prediction #3: Coinbase’s revenue will double, beating Wall Street expectations by at least 10x.

Historically, Coinbase's trading volumes surge in bull markets, and we expect the same to happen again. Plus, they’ve launched a wide range of new products that are showing traction. Image
Prediction #4: More money will settle using stablecoins than using Visa.

Stablecoins are one of crypto’s “killer apps,” growing from effectively zero to a $137 billion market in the past four years, and we think 2024 will be another major year of growth. Image
Prediction #5: JPMorgan will tokenize a fund & launch it on-chain as Wall Street gears up to tokenize real-world assets.

Launching a tokenized fund would allow them to take advantage of the efficiencies on-chain assets can offer while entering a market whose growth is exploding. Image
Prediction #6: Ethereum revenue will more than 2x to $5b as users flock to crypto applications.

In 2023, users will pay ~$2.3b in fees to use Ethereum. We think that will at least 2x in 2024, making Ethereum one of the fastest-growing large-scale tech platforms in the world. Image
Prediction #7: Taylor Swift will launch NFTs to connect with fans.

One possibility? Spotify—where Swift was the most-streamed artist in 2023 with more than 26b streams—is experimenting with token-gated playlists that require listeners to own a particular NFT in order to listen. Image
Prediction #8: AI assistants will start using crypto to pay for things online, affirming crypto as “the native currency of the internet.”

We believe AI assistants will prefer digitally native money, like bitcoin or stablecoins. And we think that starts happening in 2024.
Prediction #9: More than $100 million will be staked in prediction markets, which will emerge as a new “killer app” for crypto.

We think decentralized prediction markets will become a primary venue for both event-based and more traditional sports-related wagering. Image
Prediction #10: A major upgrade to Ethereum will drive the avg transaction cost below $0.01.

EIP-4844 could result in a 90%+ reduction in the cost to use Ethereum. We think this upgrade will pave the way for the first truly mainstream applications in crypto. Image
Bonus Prediction: 1 in 4 financial advisors will allocate to crypto in client accounts by the end of 2024.

We anticipate that once bitcoin becomes easily accessible, more and more advisors will allocate to crypto in clients’ accounts.
And that wraps our 2024 predictions. To read the full report, go to: bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-…
Please note: As with all predictions, these are not guarantees, but represent our best informed estimate. The future is complex and conditional, and whether these pan out exactly as written will depend on many complicated factors. Nothing above is investment advice.

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More from @RasterlyRock

Dec 11, 2024
In 2025… Bitcoin will hit $200,000, Coinbase will enter the S&P 500, stablecoin AUM will double, and more…

Here are 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025 by the team at @BitwiseInvest

🧵👇
Prediction #1: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana hit new all-time highs, with Bitcoin trading above $200k.

Our targets:

$200k BTC: Corp/gov buying, ETF flows, & 2024 halving

$7k ETH: Growth in L2s, stablecoins, & tokenization

$750 SOL: Memecoins & migration of “serious” projects Image
Prediction #2: Bitcoin ETFs will attract more flows in 2025 than they did in 2024.

How is that possible? Three reasons:

1) Year one is typically the slowest year for ETFs
2) Major wirehouses are coming online
3) Investors are laddering up—3% is the new 1% Image
Read 14 tweets
Dec 7, 2022
It’s been one week since Uniswap for NFTs launched.

So, how’s it going?

TOTAL:
- Trading Volume: $1.1 million
- Transactions: 1,868

PAST 24 HOURS:
- Trading Volume: $0.3 million
- Transactions: 135
50% of NFT trading volume on Uniswap has gone through OpenSea:

50% - OpenSea
26% - LooksRare
7% - CryptoPunks
7% - X2Y2
6% - Sudoswap
4% - NFTX
81% of NFT trading volume on Uniswap has been associated w/ blue chip NFT collections:

27% - Clone X
15% - BAYC
13% - CryptoPunks
10% - Pudgy Penguins
8% - PROOF Collective
8% - MAYC
6% - Froggy Friends
5% - RTFKT Animus Egg
4% - Otherdeed for Otherside
4% - Seedlings by VES3L
Read 6 tweets
Nov 22, 2022
1/ Six Fundamental Metrics to Evaluate DeFi Assets

1. Revenue
2. Profit
3. Users
4. Transaction Activity
5. Committed Capital
6. Security

bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-…
2/ REVENUE

DeFi applications produce revenue, just like traditional financial institutions. The revenue generally comes from charging users a fee for transacting on the application.

Over the past two years, the top ten DeFi apps (by market cap) generated ~$5B in revenue.
3/ PROFIT

Some applications are already channeling part of their revenue to token holders in the form of dividends or buy-backs.

When evaluating DeFi apps, understanding how much profit exists for token holders—and how the profit is distributed—is an important nuance.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 16, 2022
1/25

In our newest research piece, @Anais_Rchl, @GayatriPC_, & I explore Staking as a Service (STaaS), an emerging crypto sector poised for growth.

- The Merge & why people stake crypto assets
- Staking as a Service & the growth of STaaS providers
- The outlook for STaaS Image
2/25

Ethereum's transition to Proof-of-Stake is reshaping the crypto economy, pushing the idea of staking front and center in investors' minds.

Long-term ETH holders who choose to stake now have the potential to earn a 4-8% yield on their position through staking.
3/25

So, what is staking?

Staking involves making a financial commitment to a blockchain in its native asset to secure the network. It's a fundamental component of blockchain infrastructure because of the security and decentralization it provides.
Read 27 tweets
Sep 15, 2022
1/9 Is it ideal that more than 40% of the blocks created on #Ethereum in the hours following #TheMerge belong to just two staking service providers: Lido (DeFi) and Coinbase (CeFi)? No

Am I worried? No. Here’s why👇
2/9 First, it makes sense that the largest staking service providers have the advantage early on, particularly in the hours & days following Ethereum’s transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS)...
3/9 After all, most stakers experiencing issues during the transition to PoS will be the individual stakers running their own validators, not the prominent service providers with full-time teams & resources dedicated to staking operations.
Read 9 tweets
Aug 8, 2022
1/ What’s the argument for the Ethereum Proof-of-Work (or “PoW”) chain post-merge?

Today Ethereum PoW offers a thriving application layer—DeFi, NFTs, stablecoins, etc.

But without core elements of the app layer like data feeds & liquidity, what’s the value proposition?
2/ Smart contracts & crypto applications need real-world data to function.

Like price feeds of real-world assets or metadata for NFTs, for example.

Oracle networks like @chainlink provide that type of data to crypto applications.
3/ Chainlink dominates the oracle market, with a ~50% market share measured by Total Value Secured (or "TVS").

That includes some of the most prominent DeFi protocols like Aave and Curve.

Source: @DefiLlama
Read 5 tweets

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