🧵HAMAS FAKE CASUALTY UPDATE: Hamas now reports the opposite of last 6 week trend: only male deaths in last 4 days. Perhaps they read analysis showing women & children deaths kept rising in impossible ways. This only deepens dubiousness of Hamas numbers. Here are the details: 1/
UN reports daily Hamas stats. Each day UN adds this note about total fatalities: “about 70 per cent of whom are said to be women and children.” It's another way of saying: we have no idea & neither does Hamas but we’ll report them anyway so media & NGOs can say “the UN says.” 2/
As a recap, on many days in Oct Nov & early Dec of total fatalities added less than 5% were men. Women & children killed soared (see chart). For example: Oct 31 only 6 of 216 new fatalities were men; 4 of 306 on Nov 7; 44 of 929 on Dec 7. Many similar anomalies on other days. 3/
Some critics claim Total Killed less women & children is NOT men but men+unidentified; then later sex & age is modified in totals. This idea fails. First, Hamas says bodies counted by health authorities. Are we to believe they can't say right away if man, woman or child? 4/
Second, on many days of new fatalities added to total less than 5% were men. Even if somehow there is a group of “unidentified” bodies that only later do the "health authorities" identify age & sex and add to total, it can’t be that so often it's 95% or more women & children. 5/
The fact that in the last few days it seems ONLY MEN are added makes numbers even LESS reliable. It seems like the cryptic UN note "of whom are said" to be 70% women & children is the guiding metric and the numbers are adjusted afterwards to fit that numerical mandate. 6/
On Dec 9 Israeli authority stated “minimal estimate” of 7,000 Hamas killed. That’s about 1,500 more than total men killed (which would also include many civilians) according to Hamas – who report no combatant deaths! Yet somehow the Hamas numbers still garner credibility. END
I'm getting "because there are unidentified bodies under the rubble" -- but that's a separate category as Hamas & UN say; it would be ADDITIVE to total fatality number. What's in total fatality number includes ALL "found" bodies by "health ministry" that have been identified.
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🧵Report by @Mr_Andrew_Fox debunking Hamas fatality data has been predictably attacked by Hamas defense attorneys who can't accept a group that did 10/7, kidnaps babies & rapes hostages would lie. Review of criticism and why report remains accurate: 1/ henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/q…
First, critics claim, ad nauseam, that Hamas Ministry of Health (MoH) data has been reliable in the past so it's credible today. False, as HJS report and thread below prove. Hamas vastly overstated civilian deaths in prior wars like they are now. 2/
Many react to report's key chart showing male overrepresentation in fatalities with “so what, it's known men die in wars more then women”—thereby admitting the narrative of IDF targeting women & children is false and admitting fatality list probably has many male combatants. 3/
🧵Libelous new @Airwars analysis on Israel bombing of Gaza in Oct 2023 assumes all deaths are civilian unless proven otherwise. This crazy assumption leads to their conclusion that of 606 IDF airstrikes only 32 combatants died versus 5,139 civilians or 99.4%. Analysis: 1/
According to Airwars, IDF invested millions of dollars sending up F35 & F16s, huge air force resources on 606 bombing attacks but could not kill even ONE combatant in 96% of these sorties, but did kill 8 civilians/strike. Are we supposed to take this Airwars report seriously? 2/
Fatal flaw is the "lack of information bias": Airwars does not know which males age >13 was civilian vs combatant as it does not have master list of 40,000 Hamas/PIJ militants. Airwars also does not know how many combatant deaths were omitted from any casualty list by Hamas. 3/
🧵Why does Ireland want ICJ to “broaden its interpretation” of genocide as legally defined? Why did Amnesty find law “cramped” and change it? Because ICJ 2015 ruling in Croatia case clearly proves no genocide in Gaza. Here is review of case. Worth a read to really understand: 1/
Core issue is the very high bar ICJ required to prove “special intent” under the Genocide Convention. For acts by an accused party to be genocide the “ONLY reasonable conclusion to be drawn” from those acts is to kill the group. A strict hurdle that requires hard evidence. 2/
ICJ ruling notes that Croatia argues that Serbia’s crimes are in fact such that the “ONLY reasonable inference to be drawn is that Serb leaders were motivated by genocidal intent.” But if ICJ accepts that Serbia had other specific aims, then this hurdle of intent is not met. 3/
🧵Amnesty invents new laws of genocide 5 times in its “report” which it admits. Amnesty cannot find “intent to genocide” by Israel so it literally created new standards & legal terms in a desperate attempt to find "dolus specialis." It still fails. Detail on 5 fabrications: 1/
Amnesty admits it is not following “international law” but a vague “jurisprudence” allowing them to mix & match opinions & interpretations as they wish. They falsely claim that if "direct evidence" of intent cannot be found, circumstantial evidence is good enough, voila! 2/
Amnesty fabricates more ways to show intent this time by claiming that other violations of int'l law, such as “ill-treatment of Palestinians” and basically anything bad is good enough. It gets easier and easier for Amnesty to prove intent after every page of its report. 3/
🧵Here is a pre-war image of the luxury Hamad towers where Hamas dug under to build a tunnel network where it held and killed 6 Israeli hostages. The lie of Gaza exposed: luxury civilian homes exploited by Hamas for combat. Israel is then blamed for its destruction. Detail: 1/
As disclosed today, 6 hostages were held by Hamas, then murdered, in a tunnel network with many shafts dug right under this complex of 60 5-story buildings comprising 3,000 apartments built by Qatar, in the "open air prison." Here is a map of the tunnels: 2/
Hamad Towers is a microcosm of the entire Gaza war: massive int'l aid pouring in, Gaza is actually a modern urban enclave, Hamas exploitation of civilian Gaza for war, careful IDF action within rules of war and tragic destruction blamed on Israel only. 3/ gulf-times.com/story/557266/w…
🧵Hezbollah vs IDF killed casualty ratio in Lebanon corroborates the IDF claim of at ~18,000 Hamas/PIJ combatants killed in Gaza. The 48:1 ratio in Lebanon precisely matches the ratio of Hamas vs IDF killed in Gaza. Key data & analysis below: 1/
IDF reports 46 soldiers killed in ground operations in Lebanon. Hezbollah killed are at least 2,200, identified individually by death notification, compiled by a number of observers like the one below. Hezbollah casualty counts do not appear disputed. 2/
The 2,200 killed in the ground operation matches the 3,000 Hezbollah the IDF says have been killed since 10/7. Several 100 were killed before the ground operation, others in the beeper attack, etc. Again, I have not seen disputes on these numbers. 3/