THREAD: around 10 days ago, @mouinrabbani commented that the #Houthis in #Yemen didn't even really need to *hit* any of the ships passing thru the Bab El Mandeb in order to have a huge effect on global trade...> 
That map I used was of the ship-threatening incidents Nov. 18 thru Dec 18. Source: >gcaptain.com/navy-operation…
I find gCaptain a good source of shipping news. Monday, they reported this: >
That post on their blog had other good info, too: >gcaptain.com/global-trade-f…
The #Houthis, of course (real name Ansar Alllah), are well known as feisty, mountain-based fighters who have fended off vicious (US-supported) assaults from Saudi Arabia and UAE since 2015... >
& in Sept 2019 they launched v. smart drone attacks against key Saudi oil facilities: > en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abqaiq%E2…
The #Houthi leaders have vowed since late October that they will attack shipping heading to or from, or owned by, Israel so long as Israel maintains its megalethal siege of Gaza. >
This is one of the most notable (& noticeable!) acts of pro-Palestinian solidarity from anywhere in the Arab world. >
So on Monday, after a spate of Houthi attacks last week, US Sec of defense Lloyd Austin announced the launch of a US-led naval op called "Operation Prosperity Guardian" to defend against Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping: >gcaptain.com/us-launches-op…
OPG is meshed with a number of pre-existing, US-led "Combined Naval Task Forces" that have been operating all around the Arabian Peninsula for some years now, as part of the broader campaign to encircle & intimidate Iran >
... & also to counter "piracy" from Somalia (a failed state that has been chaotically dismantled by US military action over the past 25 years.) But anyway >
I was interested in the list of countries that Lloyd Austin has in his new, anti-Houthi coalition. It is: the U.S., United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain. Do you notice anything? >
What I see are 8 "Western" nations along with two (very tiny) others, neither located close to the Bab el-Mandeb or Red Sea: >
#Seychelles is actually *south* of the Equator, has a populatn of c. 100,000. #Bahrain is a small island, highly controlled by the US/UK, and HQ of the US Fifth Fleet. Also v. significant: >
Is that neither Saudi Arabia nor UAE (earlier, v. bitter & violent foes of the Houthis) are listed as part of OPG. Seems they don't want to be seen as supporting the "Western" attack on the Houthis' brave act of solidarity with #Palestine... >
Houthi official Mohammed Abdulsalam yesterday responded to Austin's announcement of OPG by saying: ""Our position will not change in the direction of the Palestinian issue, whether a naval alliance is established or not...Our position in support of Palestine and the Gaza Strip will remain until the end of the siege, the entry of food and medicine, and our support for the oppressed Palestinian people will remain continuous.” >new.thecradle.co/articles/yemen…
Meantime, US veteran Larry Johnson has written: "On paper it would appear that Yemen is outnumbered and seriously outgunned. A sure loser? Not so fast. The U.S. Navy, which constitutes the majority of the fleet sailing against Yemen, has some real vulnerabilities that will limit its actions... " >sonar21.com/the-u-s-navy-i…
Johnson's technical/operational explanation seems persuasive to me. He writes that the US Navy's real vulnerability is that it "is configured currently as a 'Forward-Based Navy' and is not an 'Expeditionary Navy'.” >
He continues, thusly: >
And concludes with this: >
Larry Johnson's analysis is pretty intriguing. But I don't see the US military as eager *at all* to get into a shooting war with the #Houthis. So while the military/operational aspects of any potential shooting war between the sides are intriguing, still... >
>I think that mainly @mouinrabbani was right: The geopolitical/geoeconomic effects of their feistiness are really the key thing to look at. And at that level, we can see huge effects: > gcaptain.com/shipping-indus…
@MouinRabbani So let us hope that these extra costs that companies and consumers worldwide will have to bear will add a lot to the pressure on Washington to (finally!) allow a serious #GazaCeasefire resolution to proceed. >
@MouinRabbani But I'm not holding my breath. The UN Security Council hasn't yet come to a vote on the current draft resolution (which is only for a 'suspension" of hostilities, not a full ceasefire.) Get updates, texts, etc here: (END OF THREAD.)news.un.org/en/story/2023/…
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