As a clinical health psychologist, I notice that many people are using psychological defense mechanisms to downplay the risk of COVID.
These are my Top 7 examples:
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#1 – Denial – Pretending a problem does not exist to provide artificial relief from anxiety.
Examples:
“During COVID” or “During the pandemic” (past tense)
“The pandemic is over”
“Covid is mild”
“It’s gotten milder”
“Covid is now like a cold or the flu”
“Masks don’t work anyway”
“Covid is NOT airborne”
“Pandemic of the unvaccinated”
“Schools are safe”
“Children don’t transmit COVID”
“Covid is mild in young people”
“Summer flu”
“I’m sick but it’s not Covid”
Taking a rapid test only once
Using self-reported case estimates (25x underestimate) rather than wastewater-derived case estimation
Using hospitalization capacity estimates to enact public health precautions (lagging indicator)
Citing mortality estimates rather than excess mortality estimates. Citing excess mortality without adjusting for survivorship bias.
#2 – Projection – When someone takes what they are feeling and attempts to put it on someone else to artificially reduce their own anxiety.
Examples:
“Stop living in fear.” (the attacker is living in fear)
“You can take your mask off.” (they are insecure about being unmasked themselves)
“When are you going to stop masking?”
“You can’t live in fear forever.”
#3 – Displacement – When someone takes their pandemic anxiety and redirects their discomfort toward someone or something else.
Examples:
Angry, seemingly inexplicable outbursts by co-workers, strangers, or family
White affluent people caring less about the pandemic after learning that it disproportionately affects lower-socioeconomic status people of color
Scapegoating based on vaccination status, masking behavior, etc.
“Pandemic of the unvaccinated”
Vax and relax
“How many of them were vaccinated?” (troll comment on Covid deaths or long Covid)
Redirecting anxiety about mitigating a highly-contagious airborne virus by encouraging people to do simple ineffective mitigation like handwashing
“You do you” (complainers are the problem, not Covid)
Telling people to get vaccinated or take other precautions against the flu or RSV but not mentioning Covid
Parents artificially reducing their own anxiety by placing children in poorly mitigated environments
Clinicians artificially reducing their own anxiety by placing patients in poorly mitigated environments
Housework to distract from stress
Peer pressure not to mask
#4 – Compartmentalization – Holding two conflicting ideas or behaviors, such as caution and incaution, rather than dealing with the anxiety evoked by considering the incautious behaviors more deeply (hypocrisy)
Hospitals and clinicians claim to value health/safety but then don’t require universal precautions
Public health officials claim to value evidence but then give non-evidence based advice (handwashing over masking), obscure or use low-value data over high-quality data (self-reported case counts over wastewater), etc.
Getting a flu vaccine but not a Covid vaccine
Interviewing long Covid experts who recommend masking in indoor public spaces but then going to Applebee’s
Masking in one potentially risky setting (grocery store) but not masking in another similar or more-risky setting (classroom)
Infectious disease conference where people are unmasked
Long Covid and other patient-advocacy meetings where only half the people mask
“It’s good I got my infection out of the way before the holidays”
“I had Covid but it was mild”
Anything quoted in Dr. Jonathan Howard’s book, “We Want Them Infected: How the Failed Quest for Herd Immunity Led Doctors to Embrace Anti-Vaccine Movement”
Herd immunity (infections help)
Hybrid immunity (infections help)
“It’s okay because I was recently vaccinated”
“Omicron is milder”
“Textbook virus”
“Building immunity”
#6 – Rationalization – Artificially reducing Covid anxiety through a weak justification.
Examples:
“I didn’t mask but I used nasal spray”
“I don’t need to mask because I was recently vaccinated”
“It finally got me.”
“You’re going to get Covid again and again and again over your life.”
“It’s not Covid because I don’t have a sore throat.”
“It’s not Covid because I took a rapid test 3 days ago.”
“It’s not Covid because I’m vaccinated.”
“Airplanes have excellent ventilation.”
“I’ve had Covid three times. It’s mild.”
“Verily was cheaper.”
“Nobody else is masking.”
“Nobody else is testing.”
“My roommates don’t take any precautions, so there’s no point in me either.”
“I have a large family, so there’s no point in taking precautions.”
Surgical masks (they are actual “procedure masks,” by the way)
Various pseudo-scientific treatments used by the left and right
Handwashing as the primary Covid public health recommendation
Droplet transmission as a thing
Public health guidance that begins with “data shows” (sic)
Risk maps that never turn deep red
5 expired rapid tests
“Masks recommended” instead of universal precautions
“Seasonal”
#7 – Intellectualization – using extensive cognitive arguments to artificially circumvent Covid anxiety
Examples:
Unending threads to justify indoor dining
Data-rich public health dashboards that use low-quality metrics and/or don’t change public health recommendations as risk increases
The entire justification for “off-ramps”
Oster, Wen, Prasad
Schools denying air cleaners because it “could make children anxious”
Schools not rapid testing this surge because it “could make children anxious”
The mental gymnastics underlying the rationales for who can get vaccinated, how frequently, or with what brand
Service workers told not to mask because it could make clients uncomfortable
“What comorbidities did they have?”
“The vulnerable will fall by the wayside”
Musicians and others holding large indoor events
5-day isolation periods
Here's a link to the full book, a newer edition than what I own. The information on defense mechanisms begins on textbook page 100.
Transmission continues to decline. About 1 in 161 people in the U.S. are infectious, the lowest levels since July 1. Transmission levels are higher than during 27% of the pandemic, but a good time to catch up on delayed care. 1/4
I have some concerns about Biobot's real-time data quality at the moment. Their real-time data have over-reported levels the past 8 weeks (11% last week, previously 6%, 10%, 7%, 5%, 9%, 4%, 5%) relative to later corrections. Huge bias!
2/4
Qualitatively, the over-reporting in real-time data lead me to believe there's a 50-50 chance we see a May "wavelet" versus continued decline for a couple months. Some of the county-level Biobot data seem implausible (e.g., levels of "3" in Mason County, WA, but others too). 3/4
31 Reasons Why the New 1-Day COVID Isolation Policy is Wrong
#1
Experts in modeling and testing know that people are infectious with COVID for an average of 7 days, with substantial variability around that average.
#2
People use defense mechanisms to temporarily avoid the death anxiety evoked by thinking of COVID. The too-short 5-day iso was an example of this (see final example).
Such defenses provide temporary relief and are almost always harmful long-term.
PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 26, 2024
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Forecast for the next month
Over the next month, we should see transmission fall from 790,000 infections/day toward more like a range of 200,000-450,000 infections per day, depending on better or worse scenarios.
That's "good" news in the relative sense for those putting off medical appointments the past 6 months, though still extremely high transmission in any objective sense.
See the online report for details on the models.
Surge in Context
At this point in the surge, it is clear that the peak transmission day was around December 27 (1.92 million/day), and the midpoint of “surging” infections (>1 million/day) was around January 9.
We are estimated to have had 85 total days with >1 million infections per day (November 28 through February 20) during the surge, though these numbers may still fluctuate with corrections the next few weeks.
The low-point leading into the surge was October 18 at 547,000 infections/day. Infections have been at “wave” levels (>500,000 infections/day or higher) since the onset of the late summer wave surpassed that milestone on July 27. We are estimated to dip below 500,000 infections/day around March 6.
This is very unfortunate timing because the medical facilities that enacted universal masking may end policies on March 1. Many were hoping for a period of lower transmission before such policies ended. As of today, the estimated low point for transmission is March 27 (348,000 infections/day), but the level and date are subject to much uncertainty.
PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 26, 2024
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Current State of the Pandemic
🔹73 million infections in the U.S. in 2024 (so far)
🔹790,000 daily infections
🔹1.66% (1 in 60) actively infectious
🔹40,000+ resulting #LongCOVID cases/day
Deeper Dive
Transmission is finally starting to decline again, and expect major declines the next four week.
U.S. wastewater levels indicate that COVID transmission is higher than during 58.4% of the days of the pandemic (down from 85.9% a week ago). Transmission is lower than 41.6% of the pandemic.
As we noted the past two weeks, we believed the post-peak hill was itself peaking on around February 7th and that last week’s slightly higher values might get retroactively corrected downward. That was, in fact, the case (the peak was the 7th), and transmission has fallen further since.
We are still at very high “wave” levels, but no longer “surging” at over a million infections/day. The big picture remains very bad, but this is good news for people putting off medical appointments for months.
PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 26, 2024
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Risks in Group Settings
Although transmission is falling, it's easy to get distracted by the relative changes and ignore that the absolute risk remains high, especially in large groups with limited or no mitigation.
In a group of 10, there's a 15% at least one person is actively infectious. In a group of 30, it's a 40% chance, and so forth. Almost nobody would take those chances of a serious illness if informed and capable of grappling with the seriousness of that risk without becoming defensive. Unfortunately, a lot of institutions are pushing minimizer narratives if not directly forcing students and workers into more dangerous settings.
Dr. Moriarty & other modelers know people are infectious for an average of about 7 days, per high-quality studies. Many for much longer.
Dr. Mina's pinned Tweet lays out a sample timeline.
Sending kids to school on Day 2 positive will essentially maximize infections. 2/4
The consequence of the California 1-day isolation policy is that many parents and grandparents will develop serious health conditions and too often die prematurely.
Bad for families. Good for inspiring the next generation of bereavement workers.
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PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 5, 2024
We are seeing escalating transmission in a post-peak hill.
🔹2.8% (1 in 36) actively infectious
🔹1.3 million infections/day
🔹Hill peaks in 2 days 🤞
🔹>65,000 resulting #LongCOVID cases/day
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PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 5, 2024
We began to see evidence of a post-peak hill 3 weeks ago. I was skeptical. The real-time data now bear this out. Hopefully we are not in a Terminator-style scenario where the technology outsmarts the maker. 🤣
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PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 5, 2024
Zooming out to the full pandemic, we see transmission higher than a week ago, and higher than 87.8% of the pandemic.
Nearly 10 million infections/week. >50 million estimated infections so far in 2024 in the U.S. alone.