🧵FAKE HAMAS CASUALTY UPDATE: Latest Hamas fatality count of ~20,000 claims at least 14,200 are women & children. If one accepts these numbers it means IDF has only killed ~840 Hamas versus latest IDF estimate of 8,000. Here is detailed analysis which shows Hamas is lying: 1/
IDF yesterday said 8,000 Hamas killed which would mean only 12,000 civilians killed (assuming Hamas total number is accurate) which is 2,200 less than total women & children Hamas claims, forgetting any civilian men. Either Hamas or IDF is massively lying. 2/
If one accepts Hamas women & children killed as accurate it NECESSARILY means that IDF has killed less than 1,000 combatants vs 19,000 civilians. This would mean IDF is inflating combatants killed by ~7,000 and the war is a complete failure! Do you believe this? See analysis: 3/
With 20,000 killed reported by Hamas, statistically, deaths of children women & men should roughly match population proportion of each group in Gaza. Particularly if claiming “indiscriminate bombing.” Chart below shows how many civilian men fatalities there should be: ~4,960. 4/
Since Hamas is claiming 14,200 women & children killed, and civilian men killed should be ~4,960 based on proportion of civilian men in Gaza, this means what is left is only be about 840 combatants killed by IDF. The comment pasted below summarizes the conclusion. 5/
Here are some of the male “civilians” of Hamas, caught on camera here planting an explosive device in a 1:31 minute video. Not a single Hamas member wears a uniform and it is certain Hamas counts them all as “civilian” while inflating women & children killed. 6/
Hamas has inflated civilian deaths to absurd levels (even one is tragic but ALL for the account of Hamas). By not claiming any combatant deaths & not showing men killed separately, it takes statistical analysis to see through the lies. Why is media not doing basic analysis? END
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🧵Report by @Mr_Andrew_Fox debunking Hamas fatality data has been predictably attacked by Hamas defense attorneys who can't accept a group that did 10/7, kidnaps babies & rapes hostages would lie. Review of criticism and why report remains accurate: 1/ henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/q…
First, critics claim, ad nauseam, that Hamas Ministry of Health (MoH) data has been reliable in the past so it's credible today. False, as HJS report and thread below prove. Hamas vastly overstated civilian deaths in prior wars like they are now. 2/
Many react to report's key chart showing male overrepresentation in fatalities with “so what, it's known men die in wars more then women”—thereby admitting the narrative of IDF targeting women & children is false and admitting fatality list probably has many male combatants. 3/
🧵Libelous new @Airwars analysis on Israel bombing of Gaza in Oct 2023 assumes all deaths are civilian unless proven otherwise. This crazy assumption leads to their conclusion that of 606 IDF airstrikes only 32 combatants died versus 5,139 civilians or 99.4%. Analysis: 1/
According to Airwars, IDF invested millions of dollars sending up F35 & F16s, huge air force resources on 606 bombing attacks but could not kill even ONE combatant in 96% of these sorties, but did kill 8 civilians/strike. Are we supposed to take this Airwars report seriously? 2/
Fatal flaw is the "lack of information bias": Airwars does not know which males age >13 was civilian vs combatant as it does not have master list of 40,000 Hamas/PIJ militants. Airwars also does not know how many combatant deaths were omitted from any casualty list by Hamas. 3/
🧵Why does Ireland want ICJ to “broaden its interpretation” of genocide as legally defined? Why did Amnesty find law “cramped” and change it? Because ICJ 2015 ruling in Croatia case clearly proves no genocide in Gaza. Here is review of case. Worth a read to really understand: 1/
Core issue is the very high bar ICJ required to prove “special intent” under the Genocide Convention. For acts by an accused party to be genocide the “ONLY reasonable conclusion to be drawn” from those acts is to kill the group. A strict hurdle that requires hard evidence. 2/
ICJ ruling notes that Croatia argues that Serbia’s crimes are in fact such that the “ONLY reasonable inference to be drawn is that Serb leaders were motivated by genocidal intent.” But if ICJ accepts that Serbia had other specific aims, then this hurdle of intent is not met. 3/
🧵Amnesty invents new laws of genocide 5 times in its “report” which it admits. Amnesty cannot find “intent to genocide” by Israel so it literally created new standards & legal terms in a desperate attempt to find "dolus specialis." It still fails. Detail on 5 fabrications: 1/
Amnesty admits it is not following “international law” but a vague “jurisprudence” allowing them to mix & match opinions & interpretations as they wish. They falsely claim that if "direct evidence" of intent cannot be found, circumstantial evidence is good enough, voila! 2/
Amnesty fabricates more ways to show intent this time by claiming that other violations of int'l law, such as “ill-treatment of Palestinians” and basically anything bad is good enough. It gets easier and easier for Amnesty to prove intent after every page of its report. 3/
🧵Here is a pre-war image of the luxury Hamad towers where Hamas dug under to build a tunnel network where it held and killed 6 Israeli hostages. The lie of Gaza exposed: luxury civilian homes exploited by Hamas for combat. Israel is then blamed for its destruction. Detail: 1/
As disclosed today, 6 hostages were held by Hamas, then murdered, in a tunnel network with many shafts dug right under this complex of 60 5-story buildings comprising 3,000 apartments built by Qatar, in the "open air prison." Here is a map of the tunnels: 2/
Hamad Towers is a microcosm of the entire Gaza war: massive int'l aid pouring in, Gaza is actually a modern urban enclave, Hamas exploitation of civilian Gaza for war, careful IDF action within rules of war and tragic destruction blamed on Israel only. 3/ gulf-times.com/story/557266/w…
🧵Hezbollah vs IDF killed casualty ratio in Lebanon corroborates the IDF claim of at ~18,000 Hamas/PIJ combatants killed in Gaza. The 48:1 ratio in Lebanon precisely matches the ratio of Hamas vs IDF killed in Gaza. Key data & analysis below: 1/
IDF reports 46 soldiers killed in ground operations in Lebanon. Hezbollah killed are at least 2,200, identified individually by death notification, compiled by a number of observers like the one below. Hezbollah casualty counts do not appear disputed. 2/
The 2,200 killed in the ground operation matches the 3,000 Hezbollah the IDF says have been killed since 10/7. Several 100 were killed before the ground operation, others in the beeper attack, etc. Again, I have not seen disputes on these numbers. 3/