Thread by @ProfEdwardsNZ

Long 🧵1/ The tobacco industry & its cronies’ key arguments (uncritically echoed by the coalition government) for repealing smokefree legislation are that reducing tobacco retailer nos & denicotinising tobacco products will greatly increase retail crime & the black market.

2/ This 🧵 set out why the retail crime argument is nonsense. What about increases in illicit trade? When pressed, PM Luxon had no evidence but claimed it was simply a 'natural reality. threadreaderapp.com/thread/1737938…
1news.co.nz/2023/12/04/nat…

3/ @JarrodGilbertNZ recently claimed Luxon was right about illicit trade in an article riddled with inaccuracies, supported by anecdote & almost devoid of evidence. (paywalled)nzherald.co.nz/nz/opinion-lux…

@JarrodGilbertNZ 4/ So how seriously should we take claims by the tobacco industry & their allies, & unfortunately repeated by the coalition government, that predicted growth in the tobacco black market is a justification for repealing smokefree legislation?

@JarrodGilbertNZ 5/ First, the tobacco industry cannot be trusted. It consistently exaggerates the black market in tobacco & spuriously claims tobacco excises & new policy measures like plain packs will result in an explosion in illicit tobacco. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

@JarrodGilbertNZ 6/ Despite industry’s gloomy predictions, e.g. the black market is ‘a serious and growing threat to society’, illicit tobacco trade globally has not grown even as more & more countries implement tobacco tax increases & other tobacco control measures. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

@JarrodGilbertNZ 7/ Furthermore, the tobacco industry has been found guilty in court cases (e.g. in Canada) of covertly supportingthe black market & smuggling, & has made large settlements in response to its complicity with illicit trade being exposed e.g. in the EU.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37813440/

@JarrodGilbertNZ 8/ Research does not support Industry claims that policies like tax increases are key drivers of illicit trade. The most important factors are Govt administrative capacity, levels of corruption & strength of controls & enforcement . pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37813440/

@JarrodGilbertNZ 9/ Second, logic and evidence suggest that illicit trade will not explode when the smokefree measures are implemented. This evidence includes recent past experience from NZ.

@JarrodGilbertNZ 10/ In NZ, repeat pack collection studies (2009, 2013 & 2021/22) found little change in illicit market share despite large increases in tobacco tax & intro of plain packs; measures industry claimed would increase illicit trade. theconversation.com/smoke-and-mirr…

@JarrodGilbertNZ 11/Also, in-depth research by @ASPIREAotearoa with people who smoke found most were uninterested in illicit tobacco, concerned about the risks of dealing with underground suppliers and had a very low opinion of home-grown tobacco. academic.oup.com/ntr/article/25…

@JarrodGilbertNZ @ASPIREAotearoa 12/ Hence, in NZ where alternative nicotine products vapes are easily & legally available, the most likely behaviour change in response to denicotinisation & greatly reduced retailer nos is people who smoke will cut down their smoking, quit or switch to e-cigarettes.

@JarrodGilbertNZ @ASPIREAotearoa 13/ Third, NZ is very well-placed to minimise tobacco smuggling due to its geographical isolation & strong borders. The best response is enhanced enforcement & border control. This is already underway via increased funding to NZ Customs through the Smokefree Aotearoa Action Plan.

@JarrodGilbertNZ @ASPIREAotearoa 14/ Strange that for other law & order issues the new coalition government takes an uncompromisingly tough stance, but (unsubstantiated) threats of increased tobacco smuggling & retail crime results in evidence-based policies being abandoned. rnz.co.nz/news/political…

@JarrodGilbertNZ @ASPIREAotearoa 15/ Finally, modest increases in illicit market share may matter little when consumption is rapidly reducing. This graph from a tobacco company commissioned report illustrates why (NB estimates of illicit mkt share = higher than in independent research).
assets.nationbuilder.com/taxpayers/page…

@JarrodGilbertNZ @ASPIREAotearoa 16/ The graph shows that while estimates of illicit market share increased slightly from 2019-2022, the estimated absolute size of the NZ illicit market reduced from 230m to 167m tons; a fall of 27% (NB estimates of illicit mkt share = higher than independent research).

@JarrodGilbertNZ @ASPIREAotearoa 17/ Similarly, in UK substantial tobacco tax increases since 2000, particularly 2010-2017, were accompanied by progressive strengthening of controls & enforcement vs illicit tobacco. As a result, absolute size of the black market reduced substantially.
tobacconomics.org/files/research…

@JarrodGilbertNZ @ASPIREAotearoa 18/ The smokefree legislation is likely to result in rapid & substantial falls in smoking prevalence and consumption , so even if illicit market share increased somewhat its absolute size will almost certainly greatly decrease.tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/tobacc…

@JarrodGilbertNZ @ASPIREAotearoa 19/ Conclusion. Fear of an increase in the size of the illicit tobacco market is a spurious reason for abandoning measures that are likely to save thousands of lives. You can find out how you can help fight the repeal of Aotearoa's smokefree laws here: aspireaotearoa.org.nz/news-events/ne…

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