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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Jan 15 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Ukrainian media is reporting the shoot down of a VKS A-50 AEW&C and a Il-22 Coot ELINT plane over the Sea of Azov.

Russian signals intelligence warnings shut down the Kerch Bridge earlier in the day, thinking the PSU sorties were a Su-24 strike.
🧵
1/
 rbc.ua/rus/news/zsu-p…
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I think it likely the PSU gave off the signals of a Su-24 Storm Shadow strike and actually sent out Su-27's hunting, tricked out with 100(+) km range AIM-120C's.

Think of the WW2 "Operation Vengeance" P-38 raid that killed Adm. Yamamoto.

2/
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NASAM's launchers use AIM-120C-5/7.

If HARM missiles can be fitted to Mig-29 & Su-27's. So can an AMRAAM.

You would need an external radar sensor and a a Link 16 compatible digital radio on the Su-27 to pull it off.

3/
VKS A-50 or Il-22's orbiting at 9,000 meters over the Sea of Azov can be tracked by a ground based radar at just under 500 km.

If the PSU "strike package" volleyed a lot of ADM-160 MALD at the Kerch Bridge to get VKS fighters protecting the A-50 to

4/
...commit to protecting the bridge.

It would give a single Ukrainian PSU Su-27 a chance to break within 100 km and blarf a volley of lock on after launch AMRAAM against these converted cargo & airliner planes.

5/ Image
The US fighter pilots don't like 'pitbulling' the AMRAAM when they "Fox 3."

That is, firing a AIM-120 seeker in the lock on after launch (LOAL) with missile seeker doing autonomous homing at range.

This is because there tends to be more US fighters than enemy fighters.

6/ Image
To use ~2008 fighter pilot slang:

"Shake a pitbull up in a sack and when you let out. It's goes for the first thing it sees.
In which case, you have a 'mad dog' event."

A PSU Su-27 fighting one on many doesn't have this issue.

7/
Ukraine could only pull this AMRAAM Ambush once.

They decided to make a high operational risk/high operational pay off poker bet and won the pot.

8/8 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 15
A Communist Chinese bio-lab/meth house in California?

Found by a full-time code enforcement officer in Reedley, California, who was responding to a complaint at a cold-storage warehouse...?

We are in deeply into "What the actual f--k?" territory.

1/
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So a Chinese national & CCP member fugitive from Canadian justice set up a bio-lab in California that was selling 57,000 medical tests, stealing intellectual property, storing illegal drugs and conducting scary-dangerous pathogen research.

2/
Image
With the CDC listing 20 different pathogens, including:

chlamydia,
E. Coli,
dengue fever,
HIV,
syphilis,
streptococcus pneumonia,
hepatitis B and C,
herpes 1 and 5 and rubella.
malaria

3/
Read 15 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 13
Goodness,

There is so much more to this because of US DoD dysfunction.

There is a diminished buying power in the US defence budget, due to in part the collapse of competition due to excessive industry consolidation into too few big players, the institutionalisation...

1/
...of acquisition malpractice, and finally immense baggage from the bloated ITAR regulatory scheme.

Punchline is that saying the increase in the US budget is comparable in size to the Russian budget ignores the fact that the Russians can buy several times as much...

2/
...equipment per dollar, and not all junk equipment, either.

Even with the recent PLARF ICBM 'tofu drek' corruption, the difference is even bigger with China as it can now boast of a world class high tech manufacturing base, more efficient than Russia and with better QA.

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 13
The big problem regarding the strikes on Yemen - as evidenced by today's re-strikes - is that the US Military are "Drone counter-air virgins" that don't know what they don't know about suppressing drone airpower.

An explaining airpower DMPI targeting 🧵
1/
A late Cold War/Desert Storm USAF intelligence targeting cell assigning airpower resources to whack a hardened Warsaw Pact airfield properly would designate maybe 25 - 50 DMPIs  (Desired Mean Points of Impact) and 2-to-5 precision guided munitions...

2/
 irp.fas.org/doddir/usaf/af…
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...(PGM) to each DMPI based on their CEP (circular error probability) and warhead yield/weapon effect.

And the effects of this strike would last maybe three/four days before the air base returned to full operational capability.

3/
 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_…
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Read 16 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 11
There is growing evidence of the collapse of Boeing 737 Max 9 manufacturing process controls.

Relying on human inspection is only 80% effective, & is a last resort.

Manufacturing process controls that prevent any chance of a fractured roller track from occurring...

1/

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....in the 1st place are required.

Loose bolts in the opposite door plug assembly indicate some combination of poor worker training or a lack of a properly set bolt torque in the manufacturing tooling.

2/
fastenerengineering.com/the-different-…


Image
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The FAA investigators need to go through the Boeing & Boeing vendor tool calibration system records related to the tooling for this failed plug assembly with a fine toothed comb.

Experience tells me that a whole heck of a lot will fall out from following such an audit trail.
3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 11
When some pro-Ukrainian accounts go around attacking all GOP officials because of Trump -- looking at you @JayinKyiv - This is what you are against⬇️

Being partisan inside US politics is against Ukraine's vital interests.

US voters care more about the US Economy than Ukraine
1/

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Hard as it is for Europeans and Ukrainians to understand.

Ukraine is at best a 3rd or 4th level concern for the mass of working/middle class American voters...a luxury item.

You have got to make the case to them for supporting Ukraine to be in America's vital interests.

2/
What is self-evident from your point of view isn't to a two working parent family with kids looking at hamburger meat going from $3 a pound to $5 a pound in the last 18-months.

Those voters care more about hamburger meat than Ukraine.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 11
Please carefully note how closely the Hyunmoo-2B looks to the old US Army Pershing 2 missile with RADAC terminal homing seeker.

ASBM Proliferation 🧵
1/
ROK is a 1st tier military-industrial nation capable of making any 40 year old late Cold War military technology with 21st century electronics.

2/
So are the Chinese, who have been busy proliferating anti-ship ballistic missile technology derived from the Pershing II for 15 years to it's Iranian co-belligerents & their Houthi proxies.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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