1/ At least 2,500 scientists are reported to have left Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 and the number of published scientific papers has collapsed. This comes as the result of isolation due to sanctions, visa restrictions and state paranoia. ⬇️
2/ Novaya Gazeta Europe (NGE) reports on the outcome of a survey of the international ORCID database, which lists more than 20 million scientists globally. Registration in ORCID is mandatory for publishing employees of large Russian universities.
3/ The data indicates more than 130,000 scientists resident in Russia in October 2023. The share of these changing their residence from Russia to a foreign country was practically unchanged from 2012 to 2021, but jumped to 30% in 2022.
4/ NGE estimates that, based on the trendlines, around 2,500 scientists have emigrated since 2022. The number of foreign scientists choosing to come to Russia has also dropped by over two-thirds.
5/ Many of the emigrants are likely to be younger people, as older, more established scientists face more professional and personal difficulties from emigration. Younger men are also more likely to be subjected to mobilisation and have a bigger incentive to leave Russia.
6/ According to one university professional interviewed by NGE, "the best are trying to leave immediately after completing their bachelor’s, master’s and postgraduate studies." Unlike IT workers, scientists are not exempted from being mobilised to fight in Ukraine.
7/ While most emigrating Russian scientists left for the US, Germany and the UK before the war, since February 2023 other destinations have been prefered, in particular Uzbekistan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and the UAE with a 300% growth in Russian scientific immigration.
8/ The top three destinations are now Germany, the US and Israel – which has had a 175% increase. However, Russian scientific immigration to the UK, France and the US has fallen by more than 20%.
9/ The impact on Russian science is already visible, with a sharp fall in the number and quality of published papers. The share of global science attributed to Russia has fallen from 2-3% to only 1-2%. Russian participation in international scientific conferences has shrunk.
10/ The collapse has been particularly noticeable in the proportion of academic conference papers with a Russia-affiliated author. Around 35,000 had at least one Russia-based author in 2021 but this dropped to about 20,000 in 2022 and only about 11,000 in 2023.
11/ One publication, the UK-based Journal of Physics: Conference Series, illustrates this trend starkly: papers by Russian authors presented in the series fell from nearly 6,000 in 2021 to only 106 by November 2023, despite Russia traditionally being a leader in physics research.
12/ The reasons for this are not hard to find. Scientists are often physically unable to attend conferences due to visa restrictions and bans on direct flights between Russia and the West. Russian scientists were also removed from international collaborative programmes.
13/ Russian scientists report an growing atmosphere of fear and paranoia at home, as well as a shortage of equipment and scientific supplies due to sanctions. Contact and collaboration with foreigners is regarded with increasing suspicion by the authorities.
14/ In some instances, distinguished scientists working on hypersonics and quantum technology have been charged with treason and illegally sharing information in a number of high-profile cases, even though they are said to have had official permission to collaborate.
15/ The impact on Russian science is likely to last for decades. The losses are not all one way, however, as Russia's withdrawal from the global scientific community is likely to hinder collective efforts on issues such as climate change. /end
1/ Crimea is falling into a critical situation, says Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin, while in the war as a whole, Russia is "very close to the line beyond which lies military defeat". He lambasts the Kremlin for "lethargy" and living in fantasy on the "Planet of the Pink Ponies". ⬇️
2/ Writing to a friend from his jail, Girkin comments on Ukraine's drone offensive:
"– The situation in Crimea. It is grave now, but promises to become critical in just a few weeks if the enemy continues its strategic air offensive against it at an increasing pace.
3/ "Naturally, this is not just a coincidence - the enemy has far-reaching strategic plans in this direction and is preparing to implement them, increasingly disrupting Crimea's communications with Northern Taurida [i.e. the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions]…
1/ Much worse is to come in Moscow, warns Russian warblogger 'Intelligence Diary'. An AI analysis shows that the city is full of strategic targets that Ukraine may try to hit as its drone offensive increases in scale and scope. ⬇️
"Drones have struck the Moscow oil refinery in Kapotnya for the third time since May. The question isn't whether the attacks will continue, but what will happen next."
3/ "Moscow and the surrounding region are the country's largest industrial region. High-tech production facilities are concentrated here, protected by air defences—things Russia can't afford to lose: energy, rocket science, and the defence industry.
1/ Ukraine's massive drone strike against Moscow – with a reported 555 drones and missiles fired, and 180 claimed to have been shot down over Moscow – has prompted anger, defiance, and resignation from Russian warbloggers. "Tehran is safer", one says. ⬇️
2/ In a since-deleted comment, 'Fighterbomber' writes:
"The strikes on Moscow are alarming and concerning, primarily because, over the past four years, an air defence system has been built around Moscow that is unrivaled anywhere in the world."
3/ "I don't think there's even one comparable in quality and effectiveness.
And it's letting through strikes. It's letting through strikes even on the same target.
1/ Everything's fine, there's nothing to worry about, says Russian political scientist Sergey Markov. Only minor damage has been inflicted by today's Ukrainian strike against Moscow and the most powerful air defence system in the world has been effective. ⬇️
2/ In a masterpiece of minimisation, Markov writes:
"Moscow Mayor Sobyanin stated that Moscow suffered another attempted air strike today, with 180 Ukrainian Armed Forces drones shot down as they approached Moscow."
3/ "Several drones reached the oil refinery in Kapotnya, a district of Moscow. The Sadovod complex also sustained minor damage."
Sadovod is a huge market, apparently the largest in Europe, located essentially in Moscow, just outside the Moscow Ring Road, not far from Kapotnya.
1/ Prominent Russian warblogger Maxim Kalashnikov has been arrested on suspicion of assisting Ukraine's drone strikes against the Moscow Oil Refinery. Other warbloggers are gloating. ⬇️
2/ 'Alex Parker Returns' is gleeful:
"The dick has played his violin too much. Political blogger and publicist, and dare I say it, war correspondent, Maxim Kalashnikov, was summoned to the police for publishing the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow."
3/ "Investigators believe he worked as a spotter for the crests and recorded the results of the incoming attacks, along with the locations of air defence systems. Those responsible for this morning's massive strike have been found."
1/ A Russian Army inspection of forces in eastern Ukraine is reported to have found evidence of "flagrant corruption", false reports, looting, drinking, embezzlement, theft of supplies, and fraud at all levels. A Russian warblogger calls for senior officers to be punished. ⬇️
2/ 'War Zone' writes:
"On 19 May 2026, an inspection was carried out in units of the ‘Vostok’ Army Group, led by Colonel-General Andrei Ivanayev: the commission uncovered evidence of the falsification of combat performance results and the submission of false reports by…
3/ …commanders of the ‘Vostok’ Army Group’s formations. Evidence of flagrant corruption has been uncovered amongst senior and middle-ranking commanders. The most serious violations were found in the 29th Army, under the command of Lieutenant-General Alexei Zhuravlev.