1/ At least 2,500 scientists are reported to have left Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 and the number of published scientific papers has collapsed. This comes as the result of isolation due to sanctions, visa restrictions and state paranoia. ⬇️
2/ Novaya Gazeta Europe (NGE) reports on the outcome of a survey of the international ORCID database, which lists more than 20 million scientists globally. Registration in ORCID is mandatory for publishing employees of large Russian universities.
3/ The data indicates more than 130,000 scientists resident in Russia in October 2023. The share of these changing their residence from Russia to a foreign country was practically unchanged from 2012 to 2021, but jumped to 30% in 2022.
4/ NGE estimates that, based on the trendlines, around 2,500 scientists have emigrated since 2022. The number of foreign scientists choosing to come to Russia has also dropped by over two-thirds.
5/ Many of the emigrants are likely to be younger people, as older, more established scientists face more professional and personal difficulties from emigration. Younger men are also more likely to be subjected to mobilisation and have a bigger incentive to leave Russia.
6/ According to one university professional interviewed by NGE, "the best are trying to leave immediately after completing their bachelor’s, master’s and postgraduate studies." Unlike IT workers, scientists are not exempted from being mobilised to fight in Ukraine.
7/ While most emigrating Russian scientists left for the US, Germany and the UK before the war, since February 2023 other destinations have been prefered, in particular Uzbekistan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and the UAE with a 300% growth in Russian scientific immigration.
8/ The top three destinations are now Germany, the US and Israel – which has had a 175% increase. However, Russian scientific immigration to the UK, France and the US has fallen by more than 20%.
9/ The impact on Russian science is already visible, with a sharp fall in the number and quality of published papers. The share of global science attributed to Russia has fallen from 2-3% to only 1-2%. Russian participation in international scientific conferences has shrunk.
10/ The collapse has been particularly noticeable in the proportion of academic conference papers with a Russia-affiliated author. Around 35,000 had at least one Russia-based author in 2021 but this dropped to about 20,000 in 2022 and only about 11,000 in 2023.
11/ One publication, the UK-based Journal of Physics: Conference Series, illustrates this trend starkly: papers by Russian authors presented in the series fell from nearly 6,000 in 2021 to only 106 by November 2023, despite Russia traditionally being a leader in physics research.
12/ The reasons for this are not hard to find. Scientists are often physically unable to attend conferences due to visa restrictions and bans on direct flights between Russia and the West. Russian scientists were also removed from international collaborative programmes.
13/ Russian scientists report an growing atmosphere of fear and paranoia at home, as well as a shortage of equipment and scientific supplies due to sanctions. Contact and collaboration with foreigners is regarded with increasing suspicion by the authorities.
14/ In some instances, distinguished scientists working on hypersonics and quantum technology have been charged with treason and illegally sharing information in a number of high-profile cases, even though they are said to have had official permission to collaborate.
15/ The impact on Russian science is likely to last for decades. The losses are not all one way, however, as Russia's withdrawal from the global scientific community is likely to hinder collective efforts on issues such as climate change. /end
1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin warns that Ukraine's drone offensive is setting the conditions for a direct attack on Crimea, by chopping Russian forces in the south of Ukraine into isolated fragments with limited manoeuvrability caused by a lack of fuel. ⬇️
2/ In a new message on his Telegram channel, the imprisoned Girkin writes:
3/ "In principle, the situation is STILL developing STRICTLY WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE ENEMY'S STRATEGIC PLAN: our troops continue to exhaust themselves with any attacks in secondary (for the enemy) directions (especially since the Donetsk fortified region – or rather,…
1/ Ukraine is reported to be systematically targeting fluid catalytic cracking units at Russian oil refineries, aiming to destroy complex machinery that Russia can't repair itself and may take years to replace. As a result, the current fuel crisis may be a prolonged one. ⬇️
2/ According to VChK-OGPU, the recent drone attacks on Moscow's Kapotnya oil refinery have prevented the facility shipping fuel since the striked. It will take two or three months to carry out repairs, but one of the cracking columns is irreparably damaged.
3/ Similar serious damage has also been inflicted on the Yaroslavl and Ryazan refineries, with diesel production at Yaroslavl completely disabled "for a very long time". The two refineries had previously been principal suppliers of fuel to Moscow.
1/ Russia's fuel crisis has spread to its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad. Fuel prices have soared, rationing has been introduced, gas stations have kilometre-long queues, but most have no fuel to offer. Extreme heat is also causing pumps to break down en masse. ⬇️
2/ Russians are posting videos of long queues at Kaliningrad gas stations, the vast majority of which reportedly have no fuel available. According to one reader of the ASTRA news outlet:
3/ “My parents visited 8 gas stations, and everywhere was empty. They were told that there was fuel at some station outside the city, at 100 rubles per litre, and there was a kilometre-long queue there."
1/ Russia needs better propaganda, argues a prominent warblogger known for pro-Kremlin propaganda. He and other warbloggers say that the Kremlin's current PR approach to the war in Ukraine is causing the population to be complacent and disbelieving about the real situation. ⬇️
2/ 'Rybar' writes:
"When does morale plummet? It often occurs against a backdrop of cognitive dissonance when reality collides with a poorly correlated media image. This applies to major Russian media outlets as well—take the news on federal television channels, for example."
3/ "No, they don't formally try to hide anything: reports talk about high-profile air strikes on cities, fatalities, and fuel shortages. But more often, they're treated as if in passing, not making them the centre of the story or the agenda at all.
1/ Five years into the full-scale war in Ukraine, the Russian army appears to be exhausted and in low morale. An account from a serving Russian soldier at the front line highlights the current mood of dejection and frustration with incompetent commanders. ⬇️
2/ 'Combat Reserve' writes:
"We'll all be going home, it's just not entirely clear in what condition.
The Vostok group's officer ranks are depleted, a leg was blown off—he went home. If he's lucky, he'll get a mortgage or a certificate."
3/ "Everything's awesome, but the general fatigue is taking a toll on the morale and willpower of the personnel. Everyone’s so fed up with it all that the thought of going on leave—even if it means stepping on a felt-tip pen—constantly pops into the soldiers’ heads.
1/ In possibly the most predictable outcome ever, a Russian former soldier who made a video appealing to Vladimir Putin to meet with him to avert an army rebellion over abuses on the front line has been jailed for "propagating extremist symbols". ⬇️
2/ As reported in the thread below, 39-year-old Alexander Lunin recorded an instantly viral video appeal to Putin last week in which he denounced the abusive behaviour of frontline commanders and asked for a meeting with Putin in Moscow.
3/ On 26 June, he set off for Moscow by car after recording a new video claiming that a pro-Putin lawyer had invited him to the capital for discussions. He has not been seen or heard from publicly since.