Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 30 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The Iranian proxy forces had this cheap victory of US forces using a drone version of a 82 year old tactic that torpedoed the USS Yorktown (CV-5) at the battle of Midway.

The Iranian drone followed closely behind a US drone to get past air defenses, just like the IJN torpedo
1/
Flight deck view of U.S.S. YORKTOWN after IJN torpedo plane attack (4 June 1942).
...planes did at Midway and Japanese Kamikazes did in the last 11 months of WW2.

It is very likely the trailed US drone had no IFF transponder at all, as the MX12B micro Mode 5 Identify Friend or Foe (IFF) transponder was only certified in 2021.

2/
defenseadvancement.com/news/mode-5-if…
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In all likelihood these dead servicemen are victims of a sluggish Pentagon procurement system geared to maximize the opportunities for Congressional campaign contributions and post DoD career opportunities.

The need for micro-IFF Transponders for small drones was a stated

3/
...military requirement in the late 1990's, that is, 30(+) years ago.

This was in the aftermath of 1994 American friendly fire deaths when two USAF F-15's shot down two UH-60 Blackhawk over Kurdistan in 1994.

4/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Blac…
And even if the US drone approaching Tower 22 had a MX12B micro Mode 5 IFF transponder, there is no guarantee procedures for its use in an air tasking order were being followed.

It wasn't in 1994, which is one of the reasons why 26 US military and civilians were killed.

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Getting electronic identification friend or foe right takes highly professional, multi-service and well trained air defenders.

A skill category that the US Military ran into the ground early in the post Cold War "Peace Dividend."

Demobilization is always a deliberate policy
6/
...of firing all the best & most skilled specialists in the military, government and industry as "unnecessary costs."

They are always the first let go under the "End of History" delusion.

It has ever been thus in the USA.

7/
And US Military always pays dearly via:

"Learning by Doing,
Learning by Dying"

...to get those specialist military skills back again in the next war.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jan 28
We have a Deer in the Iranian De-Escalation headlights.

"In a noteworthy development, for the first time, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has issued a warning, signaling that Iran now holds a sufficient quantity of highly enriched uranium capable of producing
1/
...multiple nuclear warheads."

Both Iran and the Biden Administration are acting like Iran has nukes.

And given the Janus faced nature of the joint Iranian & North Korean nuclear program. This mutual act may have a firm foundation in reality.😱

2/
gatestoneinstitute.org/20341/iran-nuc…
Iran has been at war with the USA since 1979.

Except for 8-hours in Reagan's 2nd Administration and 5-minutes in the Trump Administration, US presidents have pretended that isn't the case.

While Iran developed its nuclear capability and attacked Americans over and over.

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Read 6 tweets
Jan 26
The turning back of those two container ships under USN escort means the US Navy can no longer provide freedom of navigation for maritime trade through the Suez that underlies our globalized just in time, AKA "J-I-T," economy.

That is a strategic defeat of the first order.
1/
Freedom of navigation was the cornerstone of US Grand Strategy since July 1944, building world wide wealth to reduce the incentives for major wars.

It's loss will cause a major economic downturn in the short term and reduced US economic growth for the foreseeable future.

2/
No one in the Western Political, Senior Mega-Corporate or Wall Street Financial spaces actually understands the impact of 40 years of just in time supply chains.

Every container in the supply chain is tracked as warehouse inventory with zero slack, because for 40 years the

3/
Read 15 tweets
Jan 21
This photo is the 21st century "Styx missile VS. INS Eilat" moment.

It marks the moment when the US Navy lost the military capability to enforce world wide freedom of navigation for trade that underpinned the July 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement & System.
1/
investopedia.com/terms/b/bretto…
The 24 Freedom and Independence class LCS are militarily incapable of protecting themselves from a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile, let alone protect a freighter they are escorting from one.

H/T @Megatron_ron for the map
2/

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The LCS was designed & built to run down & catch IRGC Boghammer's as their 1st requirement, with all other capabilities, including room for growth, sacrificed to that.

That has implications for topweight. Radars need to be high up on a ship.

3/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taregh-cl…
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Read 12 tweets
Jan 19
Digital cad/cam and 3D/AM capabilities are available for every small nation state and large sub-national organization.

As are networked PC supercomputers.

As a result, the barriers to entry of producing low radar cross section shapes for drones have fallen.

Drone/Computer🧵
1/
The fact of PC distributed super computers - Using dozens to 100's of  high end PC's networked as a super computer - you have a machine not only more powerful GFLOP wise than any 1945-1989 supercomputer used by America's nuclear program. 

2/
Using 100's of high end 2010 PC's may well have more GFLOP computing power than EVERY supercomputer used in America's nuclear weapons program.  

And if it was not true for 2010 PC's, consider we  are in 2024

3/
Read 11 tweets
Jan 18
No maritime business insurance = no maritime business operations is an easy concept to understand.

Yet the Biden Administration, the US Navy and Wall Street hasn't since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War & still doesn't in the Red Sea today.

A coming economic meltdown🧵
1/
I've been pounding on this this "No maritime business insurance = no maritime business operations" AKA "Economics 101" concept for some time about Ukraine's Black Sea grain shipments.

2/


The Reagan Administration and the 1988 era US Navy flag rank leadership knew all maritime war risk insurance.

The exhaustion of maritime insurance funds was why the 8-hour Oil War with Iran was fought in 1988.

3/
Read 20 tweets
Jan 17
For the people asking why PSU chopper pilots fly low over roads. It is to play games with Russian aerial radar coverage.

Older & less electronically advanced airborne radars pulse doppler techniques pick up the movement of all of the autos in the video plus helicopters.

1/3
In the early 1990's the idea of pulse doppler to pull rotor radar signal modulation was being tested.

Theoretically it was an elegant solution to killing helicopter at range.

Reality said different.

2/3
ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/79675
In 2021, it was still an utter witch to pull off as it required a large database of helicopter rotor signatures & simulation was being tested.

The USA, OTOH, had the budget to collect a large signature library.

PSU tactics say Russia's A-50 doesn't.
3/3
ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
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Read 4 tweets

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